Using outbreak data to estimate the dynamic COVID-19 landscape in Eastern Africa DOI Creative Commons
Mark Wamalwa, Henri E. Z. Tonnang

BMC Infectious Diseases, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 22(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 9, 2022

The emergence of COVID-19 as a global pandemic presents serious health threat to African countries and the livelihoods its people. To mitigate impact this disease, intervention measures including self-isolation, schools border closures were implemented varying degrees success. Moreover, there are limited number empirical studies on effectiveness non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) control COVID-19. In study, we considered two models inform policy decisions about planning implementation NPIs based case-death-recovery counts.We applied an extended susceptible-infected-removed (eSIR) model, incorporating quarantine, antibody vaccination compartments, time series data in order assess transmission dynamics Additionally, adopted susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model investigate robustness eSIR counts reproductive (R0). prediction accuracy was assessed using root mean square error absolute error. parameter sensitivity analysis performed by fixing initial parameters SEIR then estimating R0, β γ.We observed exponential trend active cases since March 02 2020, with peak occurring around August 2021. estimated R0 values ranged from 1.32 (95% CI, 1.17-1.49) Rwanda 8.52 CI: 3.73-14.10) Kenya. predicted case January 16/2022 Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania Uganda 115,505; 7,072,584; 18,248,566; 410,599; 386,020; 107,265, 3,145,602 respectively. We show that low apparent morbidity mortality EACs, is likely biased underestimation infected cases.The current can delay pea effectively reduce further spread should therefore be strengthened. reduction consistent particular, lockdowns roll-out programmes. Future work account for negative economy food systems.

Язык: Английский

COVID-19 in the 47 countries of the WHO African region: a modelling analysis of past trends and future patterns DOI Creative Commons
Joseph Cabore, Humphrey Karamagi, Hillary Kipruto

и другие.

The Lancet Global Health, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 10(8), С. e1099 - e1114

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2022

BackgroundCOVID-19 has affected the African region in many ways. We aimed to generate robust information on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 this since beginning pandemic and throughout 2022.MethodsFor each 47 countries WHO region, we consolidated data from reported infections deaths (from statistics); published literature socioecological, biophysical, public health interventions; immunity status variants concern, build a dynamic comprehensive picture burden. The model is through partially observed Markov decision process, with Fourier series produce patterns over time based SEIRD (denoting susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, dead) modelling framework. was set up run weekly, by country, date first infection country until Dec 31, 2021. New were introduced into sequenced countries. models then extrapolated end 2022 included three scenarios possible new varying transmissibility, severity, or immunogenicity.FindingsBetween Jan 1, 2020, 2021, our estimates number SARS-CoV-2 be 505·6 million (95% CI 476·0–536·2), inferring that only 1·4% (one 71) reported. Deaths are estimated at 439 500 344 374–574 785), 35·3% three) these as COVID-19-related deaths. Although similar between 2020 81% 52·3% 43·5–95·2) region's population have some immunity, given vaccination coverage 14·7% By 2022, estimate will remain high, around 166·2 157·5–174·9) infections, but substantially reduce 22 563 (14 970–38 831).InterpretationThe had rest world, fewer Our suggests current approach testing missing most infections. These results consistent findings representative seroprevalence studies. There is, therefore, need for surveillance hospitalisations, comorbidities, emergence scale-up studies, core response strategies.FundingNone.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

90
The COVID‐19 pandemic and the search for structure: Social media and conspiracy theories DOI Open Access
Benjamin J. Dow,

Amber Johnson,

Cynthia S. Wang

и другие.

Social and Personality Psychology Compass, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 15(9)

Опубликована: Авг. 4, 2021

The study outlines a model for how the COVID-19 pandemic has uniquely exacerbated propagation of conspiracy beliefs and subsequent harmful behaviors. led to widespread disruption cognitive social structures. As people face these disruptions they turn online seeking alternative Once there, media radicalizes beliefs, increasing contagion (rapid spread) stickiness (resistance change) theories. theories are reinforced in communities, norms develop, translating into real-world action. These exchanges then posted back on media, where further amplified, cycle continues. In broader population, this process draws attention those who confidently espouse them. This can drive perceptions that less fringe more popular, potentially normalizing such mainstream. We conclude by considering interventions future research address seemingly intractable problem.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

76
Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries DOI Creative Commons
Jude Dzevela Kong, Edward W. Tekwa, Sarah Gignoux‐Wolfsohn

и другие.

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 16(6), С. e0252373 - e0252373

Опубликована: Июнь 9, 2021

To assess whether the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is different across countries and what national-level demographic, social, environmental factors other than interventions characterize initial vulnerability to virus.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

63
The feasibility of using machine learning to predict COVID-19 cases DOI
Shan Chen, Yuanzhao Ding

International Journal of Medical Informatics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 196, С. 105786 - 105786

Опубликована: Янв. 24, 2025

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

1
A fractional order Covid-19 epidemic model with Mittag-Leffler kernel DOI Open Access
Hasib Khan, Muhammad Ibrahim, Abdel‐Haleem Abdel‐Aty

и другие.

Chaos Solitons & Fractals, Год журнала: 2021, Номер 148, С. 111030 - 111030

Опубликована: Май 12, 2021

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

42
The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa DOI Creative Commons
Sarafa A. Iyaniwura, Musa Rabiu, Jummy David

и другие.

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 17(2), С. e0264455 - e0264455

Опубликована: Фев. 25, 2022

The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took world by surprise. Following first outbreak COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although spread is being slowed down vaccination other interventions, there still a need clear understanding evolution across countries, states communities. To this end, clearer picture initial disease different regions. In project, we used simple SEIR model Bayesian inference framework estimate basic reproduction number Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) 9.66 (Mauritius), with median 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31–4.12). provided paper will help inform modeling respective countries/regions.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

21
A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments DOI Creative Commons
Zahra Movahedi Nia, Ali Ahmadi, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi

и другие.

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 17(8), С. e0272208 - e0272208

Опубликована: Авг. 24, 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the global economy. In this paper, we use Phillips curve to compare and analyze macroeconomics of three different countries with distinct income levels, namely, lower-middle (Nigeria), upper-middle (South Africa), high (Canada) income. We aim (1) find macroeconomic changes in during compared pre-pandemic time, (2) terms response economic crisis, (3) their expected reaction near future. An advantage our work is that monthly basis capture shocks rapid caused by off rounds lockdowns. volume social sentiments Twitter data approximate statistics. apply four machine learning algorithms estimate unemployment rate South Africa Nigeria basis. results show at beginning increased for all countries. However, Canada was able control reduce pandemic. Nonetheless, line short-run, inflation level never occurred more than fifteen years. have not been did return pre-COVID-19 level. Yet, both still comparable Africa, but based it will increase further, if decreases. Unfortunately, experiencing horrible stagflation wild rates. This shows how vulnerable lower-middle-income could be lockdowns restrictions. future, main concern rate. can potentially lead targeted publicly acceptable policies media content.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

21
Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States DOI Creative Commons
Abhishek Mallela, Jacob Neumann, Ely F. Miller

и другие.

Viruses, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 14(1), С. 157 - 157

Опубликована: Янв. 15, 2022

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat non-immune so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained end a population by calculating population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, expected of secondary cases generated infected person absence any interventions. The value ℛ0 relates herd threshold (HIT), which is given 1−1/ℛ0. When immune fraction exceeds this threshold, becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 escape immunity). Here, we report state-level estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum posteriori range from 7.1 for New Jersey 2.3 Wyoming, indicating that varies considerably across states and reaching be more difficult some than others. were compartmental models via next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized regional daily confirmed case reports 21 January 2020 June 2020. Our characterize infectiousness ancestral strains, but they used determine HITs distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if relative strain ascertained. On basis Delta-adjusted HITs, data, seroprevalence survey found no state had achieved 20 September 2021.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

19
A narrative review on the role of temperature and humidity in COVID-19: Transmission, persistence, and epidemiological evidence DOI Creative Commons
Wei Yuan, Zhaomin Dong, Wenhong Fan

и другие.

Eco-Environment & Health, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 1(2), С. 73 - 85

Опубликована: Июнь 1, 2022

Since December 2019, the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has become a global pandemic. Understanding role of environmental conditions is important in impeding spread COVID-19. Given that airborne and contact transmission are considered main pathways for COVID-19, this narrative review first summarized temperature humidity trajectory severe acute respiratory syndrome 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Meanwhile, we reviewed persistence virus aerosols on inert surfaces how SARS-CoV-2 affected by humidity. We also examined existing epidemiological evidence addressed limitations these studies. Although uncertainty remains, more may support idea high slightly negatively associated with COVID-19 growth, while conclusion still conflicting. Nonetheless, appears to have been controlled primarily government interventions rather than factors.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

17
Spatio-temporal epidemiology and associated indicators of COVID-19 (wave-I and II) in India DOI Creative Commons
K. Balasubramani, Venkatesh Ravichandran, Kumar Arun Prasad

и другие.

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Янв. 2, 2024

Abstract The spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 across India’s states and union territories is not uniform, the reasons for heterogeneous spread are unclear. Identifying space–time trends underlying indicators influencing epidemiology at micro-administrative units (districts) will help guide public health strategies. district-wise daily data cases deaths from February 2020 to August 2021 (COVID-19 waves-I II) entire country were downloaded curated databases. normalized with projected population (2020) used trend analysis shows states/districts in southern India worst hit. Coastal districts adjoining large urban regions Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Goa, New Delhi experienced > 50,001 per million population. Negative binomial regression 21 independent variables (identified through multicollinearity analysis, VIF < 10) covering demography, socio-economic status, environment, was carried out wave-I, wave-II, total (wave-I wave-II) deaths. It wealth index, derived household amenities datasets, has a high positive risk ratio (RR) (RR: 3.577; 95% CI: 2.062–6.205) 2.477; 1.361–4.506) districts. Furthermore, factors such as literacy rate, services, other workers’ alcohol use men, tobacco women, overweight/obese rainfall have RR significantly associated cases/deaths district level. These positively highly interconnected hotspot Among these, key indices development within state, some significant India. identification district-level would policymakers devise strategies guidelines during emergencies.

Язык: Английский

Процитировано

4