COVID-19 in the 47 countries of the WHO African region: a modelling analysis of past trends and future patterns

The Lancet Global Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(8), P. e1099 - e1114

Published: June 1, 2022

BackgroundCOVID-19 has affected the African region in many ways. We aimed to generate robust information on transmission dynamics of COVID-19 this since beginning pandemic and throughout 2022.MethodsFor each 47 countries WHO region, we consolidated data from reported infections deaths (from statistics); published literature socioecological, biophysical, public health interventions; immunity status variants concern, build a dynamic comprehensive picture burden. The model is through partially observed Markov decision process, with Fourier series produce patterns over time based SEIRD (denoting susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered, dead) modelling framework. was set up run weekly, by country, date first infection country until Dec 31, 2021. New were introduced into sequenced countries. models then extrapolated end 2022 included three scenarios possible new varying transmissibility, severity, or immunogenicity.FindingsBetween Jan 1, 2020, 2021, our estimates number SARS-CoV-2 be 505·6 million (95% CI 476·0–536·2), inferring that only 1·4% (one 71) reported. Deaths are estimated at 439 500 344 374–574 785), 35·3% three) these as COVID-19-related deaths. Although similar between 2020 81% 52·3% 43·5–95·2) region's population have some immunity, given vaccination coverage 14·7% By 2022, estimate will remain high, around 166·2 157·5–174·9) infections, but substantially reduce 22 563 (14 970–38 831).InterpretationThe had rest world, fewer Our suggests current approach testing missing most infections. These results consistent findings representative seroprevalence studies. There is, therefore, need for surveillance hospitalisations, comorbidities, emergence scale-up studies, core response strategies.FundingNone.

Language: Английский

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The COVID‐19 pandemic and the search for structure: Social media and conspiracy theories

Social and Personality Psychology Compass, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 15(9)

Published: Aug. 4, 2021

The study outlines a model for how the COVID-19 pandemic has uniquely exacerbated propagation of conspiracy beliefs and subsequent harmful behaviors. led to widespread disruption cognitive social structures. As people face these disruptions they turn online seeking alternative Once there, media radicalizes beliefs, increasing contagion (rapid spread) stickiness (resistance change) theories. theories are reinforced in communities, norms develop, translating into real-world action. These exchanges then posted back on media, where further amplified, cycle continues. In broader population, this process draws attention those who confidently espouse them. This can drive perceptions that less fringe more popular, potentially normalizing such mainstream. We conclude by considering interventions future research address seemingly intractable problem.

Language: Английский

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Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. e0252373 - e0252373

Published: June 9, 2021

To assess whether the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is different across countries and what national-level demographic, social, environmental factors other than interventions characterize initial vulnerability to virus.

Language: Английский

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A fractional order Covid-19 epidemic model with Mittag-Leffler kernel

Chaos Solitons & Fractals, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 148, P. 111030 - 111030

Published: May 12, 2021

Language: Английский

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The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across Africa

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. e0264455 - e0264455

Published: Feb. 25, 2022

The pandemic of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took world by surprise. Following first outbreak COVID-19 in December 2019, several models have been developed to study and understand its transmission dynamics. Although spread is being slowed down vaccination other interventions, there still a need clear understanding evolution across countries, states communities. To this end, clearer picture initial disease different regions. In project, we used simple SEIR model Bayesian inference framework estimate basic reproduction number Africa. Our estimates vary between 1.98 (Sudan) 9.66 (Mauritius), with median 3.67 (90% CrI: 3.31–4.12). provided paper will help inform modeling respective countries/regions.

Language: Английский

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Bayesian Inference of State-Level COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Numbers across the United States

Viruses, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(1), P. 157 - 157

Published: Jan. 15, 2022

Although many persons in the United States have acquired immunity to COVID-19, either through vaccination or infection with SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 will pose an ongoing threat non-immune so long as disease transmission continues. We can estimate when sustained end a population by calculating population-specific basic reproduction number ℛ0, expected of secondary cases generated infected person absence any interventions. The value ℛ0 relates herd threshold (HIT), which is given 1−1/ℛ0. When immune fraction exceeds this threshold, becomes exponentially unlikely (barring mutations allowing SARS-CoV-2 escape immunity). Here, we report state-level estimates obtained using Bayesian inference. Maximum posteriori range from 7.1 for New Jersey 2.3 Wyoming, indicating that varies considerably across states and reaching be more difficult some than others. were compartmental models via next-generation matrix approach after each model was parameterized regional daily confirmed case reports 21 January 2020 June 2020. Our characterize infectiousness ancestral strains, but they used determine HITs distinct, currently dominant circulating strain, such variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2), if relative strain ascertained. On basis Delta-adjusted HITs, data, seroprevalence survey found no state had achieved 20 September 2021.

Language: Английский

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A cross-country analysis of macroeconomic responses to COVID-19 pandemic using Twitter sentiments

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(8), P. e0272208 - e0272208

Published: Aug. 24, 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on the global economy. In this paper, we use Phillips curve to compare and analyze macroeconomics of three different countries with distinct income levels, namely, lower-middle (Nigeria), upper-middle (South Africa), high (Canada) income. We aim (1) find macroeconomic changes in during compared pre-pandemic time, (2) terms response economic crisis, (3) their expected reaction near future. An advantage our work is that monthly basis capture shocks rapid caused by off rounds lockdowns. volume social sentiments Twitter data approximate statistics. apply four machine learning algorithms estimate unemployment rate South Africa Nigeria basis. results show at beginning increased for all countries. However, Canada was able control reduce pandemic. Nonetheless, line short-run, inflation level never occurred more than fifteen years. have not been did return pre-COVID-19 level. Yet, both still comparable Africa, but based it will increase further, if decreases. Unfortunately, experiencing horrible stagflation wild rates. This shows how vulnerable lower-middle-income could be lockdowns restrictions. future, main concern rate. can potentially lead targeted publicly acceptable policies media content.

Language: Английский

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Spectral study of COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: The dependence of spectral gradient on the population size of the community

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(1), P. e0314233 - e0314233

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

We have carried out spectral analysis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) notifications in all 47 prefectures Japan. The results confirm that the power densities (PSDs) data from each prefecture show exponential characteristics, which are universally observed PSDs time series generated by nonlinear dynamical systems, such as susceptible/exposed/infectious/recovered (SEIR) epidemic model . gradient increases with population size. For prefectures, many lines PSD can be fully assigned to a fundamental mode and its harmonics subharmonics, or linear combinations few periods, suggesting COVID-19 substantially noise-free. large sizes, patterns obtained segment behave response introduction public workplace vaccination programs predicted theoretical studies based on SEIR model. meaning relationship between size is discussed.

Language: Английский

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The feasibility of using machine learning to predict COVID-19 cases

International Journal of Medical Informatics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 196, P. 105786 - 105786

Published: Jan. 24, 2025

Language: Английский

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Spatio-temporal epidemiology and associated indicators of COVID-19 (wave-I and II) in India

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Abstract The spatio-temporal distribution of COVID-19 across India’s states and union territories is not uniform, the reasons for heterogeneous spread are unclear. Identifying space–time trends underlying indicators influencing epidemiology at micro-administrative units (districts) will help guide public health strategies. district-wise daily data cases deaths from February 2020 to August 2021 (COVID-19 waves-I II) entire country were downloaded curated databases. normalized with projected population (2020) used trend analysis shows states/districts in southern India worst hit. Coastal districts adjoining large urban regions Mumbai, Chennai, Bengaluru, Goa, New Delhi experienced > 50,001 per million population. Negative binomial regression 21 independent variables (identified through multicollinearity analysis, VIF < 10) covering demography, socio-economic status, environment, was carried out wave-I, wave-II, total (wave-I wave-II) deaths. It wealth index, derived household amenities datasets, has a high positive risk ratio (RR) (RR: 3.577; 95% CI: 2.062–6.205) 2.477; 1.361–4.506) districts. Furthermore, factors such as literacy rate, services, other workers’ alcohol use men, tobacco women, overweight/obese rainfall have RR significantly associated cases/deaths district level. These positively highly interconnected hotspot Among these, key indices development within state, some significant India. identification district-level would policymakers devise strategies guidelines during emergencies.

Language: Английский

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