State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 22(222)

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2025

The current situation of COVID-19 measures makes it difficult to accurately assess the prevalence SARS-CoV-2 due a decrease in reporting rates, leading missed initial transmission events and subsequent outbreaks. There is growing recognition that wastewater virus data assist estimating potential infections, including asymptomatic unreported infections. Understanding hidden behind reported cases critical for decision-making when choosing appropriate social intervention measures. However, models implicitly assume homogeneity human behaviour, such as shedding patterns within population, making challenging predict emergence new variants variant-specific or parameters. This can result predictions with considerable uncertainty. In this study, we established state-space model based on viral load both infection numbers. Our using showed high goodness-of-fit case numbers despite dataset waves two distinct variants. Furthermore, successfully provided estimates infection, reflecting superspreading nature transmission. study supports notion surveillance modelling have effectively

Язык: Английский

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SARS-CoV-2 detection in pediatric dental clinic wastewater reflects the number of local COVID-19 cases in children under 10 years old

Scientific Reports, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 14(1)

Опубликована: Май 28, 2024

Abstract This was the first longitudinal study to analyze dental clinic wastewater estimate asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection trends in children. We monitored over a 14-month period, spanning three major COVID-19 waves driven by Alpha, Delta, and Omicron variants. Each Saturday, sampled at Pediatric Dental Clinic of only hospital Japan’s Saitama Prefecture. The relationship between weekly number cases Prefecture among residents aged < 10 years (exposure) RNA detection (outcome) examined. significantly associated with positivity (risk ratio, 5.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.72–16.67; Fisher’s exact test, p = 0.0005). A sample from Week 8 2022 harbored variant. Compared sporadic individual testing, this approach allows continuous population-level surveillance, which is less affected healthcare seeking test availability. Since pediatric clinics originates oral cavities children, such testing can provide important information regarding complementing clinical data.

Язык: Английский

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Wastewater-based effective reproduction number and prediction under the absence of shedding information

Environment International, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 194, С. 109128 - 109128

Опубликована: Ноя. 14, 2024

Estimating effective reproduction number (R

Язык: Английский

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Wastewater-based estimation of temporal variation in shedding amount of influenza A virus and clinically identified cases using the PRESENS model

Environment International, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 195, С. 109218 - 109218

Опубликована: Дек. 19, 2024

Язык: Английский

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