State-space modelling using wastewater virus and epidemiological data to estimate reported COVID-19 cases and the potential infection numbers
Syun-suke Kadoya,
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Yubing Li,
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Yilei Wang
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et al.
Journal of The Royal Society Interface,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
22(222)
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
The
current
situation
of
COVID-19
measures
makes
it
difficult
to
accurately
assess
the
prevalence
SARS-CoV-2
due
a
decrease
in
reporting
rates,
leading
missed
initial
transmission
events
and
subsequent
outbreaks.
There
is
growing
recognition
that
wastewater
virus
data
assist
estimating
potential
infections,
including
asymptomatic
unreported
infections.
Understanding
hidden
behind
reported
cases
critical
for
decision-making
when
choosing
appropriate
social
intervention
measures.
However,
models
implicitly
assume
homogeneity
human
behaviour,
such
as
shedding
patterns
within
population,
making
challenging
predict
emergence
new
variants
variant-specific
or
parameters.
This
can
result
predictions
with
considerable
uncertainty.
In
this
study,
we
established
state-space
model
based
on
viral
load
both
infection
numbers.
Our
using
showed
high
goodness-of-fit
case
numbers
despite
dataset
waves
two
distinct
variants.
Furthermore,
successfully
provided
estimates
infection,
reflecting
superspreading
nature
transmission.
study
supports
notion
surveillance
modelling
have
effectively
Language: Английский
SARS-CoV-2 detection in pediatric dental clinic wastewater reflects the number of local COVID-19 cases in children under 10 years old
Dai Kanamori,
No information about this author
Jun Sakai,
No information about this author
Takahiro Iijima
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et al.
Scientific Reports,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
14(1)
Published: May 28, 2024
Abstract
This
was
the
first
longitudinal
study
to
analyze
dental
clinic
wastewater
estimate
asymptomatic
SARS-CoV-2
infection
trends
in
children.
We
monitored
over
a
14-month
period,
spanning
three
major
COVID-19
waves
driven
by
Alpha,
Delta,
and
Omicron
variants.
Each
Saturday,
sampled
at
Pediatric
Dental
Clinic
of
only
hospital
Japan’s
Saitama
Prefecture.
The
relationship
between
weekly
number
cases
Prefecture
among
residents
aged
<
10
years
(exposure)
RNA
detection
(outcome)
examined.
significantly
associated
with
positivity
(risk
ratio,
5.36;
95%
confidence
interval,
1.72–16.67;
Fisher’s
exact
test,
p
=
0.0005).
A
sample
from
Week
8
2022
harbored
variant.
Compared
sporadic
individual
testing,
this
approach
allows
continuous
population-level
surveillance,
which
is
less
affected
healthcare
seeking
test
availability.
Since
pediatric
clinics
originates
oral
cavities
children,
such
testing
can
provide
important
information
regarding
complementing
clinical
data.
Language: Английский
Wastewater-based effective reproduction number and prediction under the absence of shedding information
Environment International,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
194, P. 109128 - 109128
Published: Nov. 14, 2024
Estimating
effective
reproduction
number
(R
Language: Английский
Wastewater-based estimation of temporal variation in shedding amount of influenza A virus and clinically identified cases using the PRESENS model
Environment International,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
195, P. 109218 - 109218
Published: Dec. 19, 2024
Language: Английский