Frontiers in Built Environment,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
8
Опубликована: Окт. 31, 2022
Over
the
past
decades,
world
has
experienced
increasing
heatwave
intensity,
frequency,
and
duration.
This
trend
is
projected
to
increase
into
future
with
climate
change.
At
same
time,
global
population
also
increase,
largely
in
world’s
cities.
urban
growth
associated
increased
heat
core,
compared
surrounding
areas,
exposing
residents
both
higher
temperatures
more
intense
heatwaves
than
their
rural
counterparts.
Regional
studies
suggest
that
Asia
Africa
will
be
significantly
affected.
How
many
people
may
exposed
levels
of
extreme
events
remains
unclear.
Identifying
range
number
potentially
populations
where
vulnerable
are
located
can
help
planners
prioritize
adaption
efforts.
We
project
ranges
at
varying
2,100
for
three
periods
time
(2010–2039,
2040–2069,
2070–2099)
using
Shared
Socio-Economic
Pathways
(SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
(RCPs).
hypothesize
largest
very
warm
Africa.
Our
projections
represent
warmest
15
days
during
these
periods.
By
2070–2099
period,
exposure
(>42°)
exceed
3.5
billion,
under
sustainability
scenario
(RCP2.6-SSP1).
The
those
cities
climbs
greater
shares
Southern
tropical
countries
Western
Central
While
this
research
demonstrates
importance
type
change
event,
decision-makers
only
recently
developing
policies
address
heat.
There
an
urgent
need
further
area.
Understanding
and
forecasting
human
mobility
in
response
to
climatic
environmental
changes
has
become
a
subject
of
substantial
political,
societal,
academic
interest.
Quantitative
models
exploring
the
relationship
between
factors
migration
patterns
have
been
developed
since
early
2000s;
however,
different
produced
results
that
are
not
always
consistent
with
one
another
or
robust
enough
provide
actionable
insights
into
future
dynamics.
Here
we
examine
weaknesses
classical
methods
identify
next-generation
approaches
potential
close
existing
knowledge
gaps.
We
propose
six
priorities
for
climate
modeling:
(i)
use
non-linear
machine-learning
rather
than
linear
methods,
(ii)
prioritization
explaining
observed
data
testing
statistical
significance
predictors,
(iii)
consideration
relevant
impacts
temperature-
precipitation-based
metrics,
(iv)
examination
heterogeneities,
including
across
space
demographic
groups
aggregated
measures,
(v)
investigation
temporal
dynamics
essentially
spatial
patterns,
(vi)
better
calibration
data,
disaggregated
within-country
flows.
Improving
both
accommodate
high
complexity
context-specificity
will
be
crucial
establishing
scientific
consensus
on
historical
trends
projections
eluded
discipline
thus
far.
Demographic Research,
Год журнала:
2024,
Номер
50, С. 41 - 100
Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2024
The
amount
of
literature
on
environmental
migration
is
increasing.
However,
existing
studies
exhibit
contradictory
results.
A
systematic
synthesis
the
environment-migration
relationship
much
needed.
International Migration,
Год журнала:
2023,
Номер
61(5), С. 116 - 125
Опубликована: Авг. 14, 2023
Abstract
In
the
past
15
years,
research
activities
focusing
on
interlinkages
between
climate
change
and
human
mobility
have
intensified.
At
same
time,
an
increasing
number
of
actors
processes
sought
to
address
in
context
from
a
policy
perspective.
Hitherto,
has
been
limited
terms
geographical
preferences
as
well
conceptual
methodological
focus
areas.
This
paper
argues
that
evolving
space,
future
needs
become
more
differentiated,
integrated
generalized.
includes
concerted
efforts
better
integrate
researchers
global
South,
improved
cross‐linkages
different
datasets,
approaches
disciplines,
longitudinal
comparative
studies
development
innovative
qualitative
quantitative
methods.
Frontiers in Built Environment,
Год журнала:
2022,
Номер
8
Опубликована: Окт. 31, 2022
Over
the
past
decades,
world
has
experienced
increasing
heatwave
intensity,
frequency,
and
duration.
This
trend
is
projected
to
increase
into
future
with
climate
change.
At
same
time,
global
population
also
increase,
largely
in
world’s
cities.
urban
growth
associated
increased
heat
core,
compared
surrounding
areas,
exposing
residents
both
higher
temperatures
more
intense
heatwaves
than
their
rural
counterparts.
Regional
studies
suggest
that
Asia
Africa
will
be
significantly
affected.
How
many
people
may
exposed
levels
of
extreme
events
remains
unclear.
Identifying
range
number
potentially
populations
where
vulnerable
are
located
can
help
planners
prioritize
adaption
efforts.
We
project
ranges
at
varying
2,100
for
three
periods
time
(2010–2039,
2040–2069,
2070–2099)
using
Shared
Socio-Economic
Pathways
(SSPs)
Representative
Concentration
(RCPs).
hypothesize
largest
very
warm
Africa.
Our
projections
represent
warmest
15
days
during
these
periods.
By
2070–2099
period,
exposure
(>42°)
exceed
3.5
billion,
under
sustainability
scenario
(RCP2.6-SSP1).
The
those
cities
climbs
greater
shares
Southern
tropical
countries
Western
Central
While
this
research
demonstrates
importance
type
change
event,
decision-makers
only
recently
developing
policies
address
heat.
There
an
urgent
need
further
area.
