Opposing Role of Trust as a Modifier of COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake in an Indigenous Population

Vaccines, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 10(6), С. 968 - 968

Опубликована: Июнь 17, 2022

Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders (NHPIs) were disproportionately impacted by COVID-19 remain significantly under-vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2. To understand vaccine hesitancy, we surveyed 1124 adults residing in a region with one of the lowest vaccination rates Hawaii during our testing program. Probit regression analysis revealed that race/ethnicity was not directly associated probability uptake. Instead, higher degree trust official sources information increased 20.68%, whereas unofficial decreased 12.49% per unit trust. These results dual opposing role on Interestingly, NHPIs only racial/ethnic group to exhibit significant positive association between consumption information, which explained hesitancy observed this indigenous population. offer novel insight relevant mitigation efforts minority populations.

Язык: Английский

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Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 46, С. 100748 - 100748

Опубликована: Фев. 8, 2024

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, scenario modeling played a crucial role in shaping decision-making process of public health policies. Unlike forecasts, projections rely on specific assumptions about future that consider different plausible states-of-the-world may or not realize and depend policy interventions, unpredictable changes epidemic outlook, etc. As consequence, long-term require evaluation criteria than ones used for traditional short-term forecasts. Here, we propose novel ensemble procedure assessing pandemic using results Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) US. By defining "scenario ensemble" each model models, termed "Ensemble2", provide synthesis potential outcomes, which use to assess projections' performance, bypassing identification most scenario. We find overall Ensemble2 models are well-calibrated better performance individual models. The accounts full range outcomes highlights importance design effective communication. ensembling approach can be extended any strategy, with refinements including weighting scenarios allowing evolve over time.

Язык: Английский

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When do we need multiple infectious disease models? Agreement between projection rank and magnitude in a multi-model setting

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 47, С. 100767 - 100767

Опубликована: Апрель 17, 2024

Mathematical models are useful for public health planning and response to infectious disease threats. However, different can provide differing results, which hamper decision making if not synthesized appropriately. To address this challenge, multi-model hubs convene independent modeling groups generate ensembles, known more accurate predictions of future outcomes. Yet, these resource intensive, how many sufficient in a hub is known. Here, we compare the benefit from multiple contexts: (1) settings that depend on quantitative outcomes (e.g., hospital capacity planning), where assessments benefits ensembles have largely focused; (2) decisions require ranking alternative epidemic scenarios comparing under possible interventions biological uncertainties). We develop mathematical framework mimic prediction setting, use quantify frequently agree. further explore agreement using real-world, empirical data 14 rounds U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub projections. Our results suggest value could be contexts, only few available, focusing rank robust than Although additional exploration number contexts still needed, our indicate it may identify rely fewer models, finding inform resources during crises.

Язык: Английский

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“It’s not that I don’t trust vaccines, I just don’t think I need them”: Perspectives on COVID-19 vaccination

PLoS ONE, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 19(2), С. e0293643 - e0293643

Опубликована: Фев. 15, 2024

In Quebec (Canada), the roll-out of vaccination started slowly in December 2020 due to limited vaccine supply. While first and second doses were well-accepted among adults uptake was above 90%, late 2021 2022, acceptance decreased for children receipt a 3 rd or 4 th dose. autumn four focus groups conducted with vaccine-hesitant parents aged 0–4 who expressed little intention receive booster The objective this study gather participants’ perspectives on general, COVID-19 campaign information available, gain insights into underlying reasons their low either having child(ren) vaccinated, receiving an additional dose vaccine. A total 35 participants took part groups. certain level trust confidence public health government authorities regarding pandemic management campaign, they also concerned that transparent lacking support informed decision children’s vaccination. Many felt adequately protected against infection during groups, citing lack perceived benefits as primary reason refusing Parents refused administer young not useful about potential side effects. majority reported opinions other recommended vaccines had changed since beginning pandemic. these results are reassuring, our findings highlight importance transparency communications increase develop strategies address fatigue complacency toward vaccines.

Язык: Английский

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Data-driven mechanistic framework with stratified immunity and effective transmissibility for COVID-19 scenario projections

Epidemics, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 47, С. 100761 - 100761

Опубликована: Март 21, 2024

Scenario-based modeling frameworks have been widely used to support policy-making at state and federal levels in the United States during COVID-19 response. While custom-built models can be one-off studies, sustained updates projections under changing pandemic conditions requires a robust, integrated, adaptive framework. In this paper, we describe one such framework, UVA-adaptive, that was built CDC-aligned Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) across multiple rounds, as well weekly/biweekly Virginia Department of Health (VDH) US Defense Building upon an existing metapopulation PatchSim, UVA-adaptive uses calibration mechanism relying on adjustable effective transmissibility basis for scenario definition while also incorporating real-time datasets case incidence, seroprevalence, variant characteristics, vaccine uptake. Through pandemic, our framework evolved by available data sources extended capture complexities strains heterogeneous immunity population. Here present version model recent SMH VDH, projection demonstrate calibrated correlates with evolution pathogen associated societal dynamics.

Язык: Английский

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Rank-based distributions in scientific papers affiliations: Different forms of Zipf's law with and without higher order inverse participation ratios

Journal of Informetrics, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 19(3), С. 101684 - 101684

Опубликована: Май 16, 2025

Язык: Английский

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Data-driven scalable pipeline using national agent-based models for real-time pandemic response and decision support

The International Journal of High Performance Computing Applications, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 37(1), С. 4 - 27

Опубликована: Окт. 20, 2022

This paper describes an integrated, data-driven operational pipeline based on national agent-based models to support federal and state-level pandemic planning response. The consists of ( i) automatic semantic-aware scheduling method that coordinates jobs across two separate high performance computing systems; ii) a data collect, integrate organize county-level disaggregated for initialization post-simulation analysis; iii) digital twin social contact networks made up 288 Million individuals 12.6 Billion time-varying interactions covering the US states DC; iv) extension parallel simulation model study epidemic dynamics associated interventions. can run 400 replicates runs in less than 33 h, reduces need human intervention, resulting faster turnaround times higher reliability accuracy results. Scientifically, work has led significant advances real-time sciences.

Язык: Английский

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Genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in Puerto Rico enabled early detection and tracking of variants

Communications Medicine, Год журнала: 2022, Номер 2(1)

Опубликована: Авг. 11, 2022

Puerto Rico has experienced the full impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Since SARS-CoV-2, virus that causes COVID-19, was first detected on island in March 2020, it spread rapidly though island's population and became a critical threat to public health.We conducted genomic surveillance study through partnership with health agencies academic institutions understand emergence molecular epidemiology island. We sampled cases monthly over 19 months sequenced total 753 SARS-CoV-2 genomes between 2020 September 2021 reconstruct local epidemic regional context using phylogenetic inference.Our analyses reveal multiple importation events propelled throughout period, including introduction most variants world-wide. Lineage turnover cycles various phases were observed, where predominant lineage replaced by next competing or variant after ~4 circulation locally. also identified B.1.588, an autochthonous predominated from December subsequently United States.The results this collaborative approach highlight importance timely collection analysis data inform responses.

Язык: Английский

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Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty.An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Год журнала: 2023, Номер unknown

Опубликована: Июль 3, 2023

Abstract Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by complexity of disease systems, our limited measure current state an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify critical epidemic drivers, with additional benefit such can used anticipate comparative effect control measures. Since December 2020, U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams make 6-month ahead number SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national state-level between February 2021 November 2022. performance varied widely as function both scenario validity model calibration. assumptions were periodically invalidated arrival unanticipated variants, but still provided on average 22 before changes (such virus transmissibility) their corresponding projections. During these periods, emergence novel variant, linear opinion pool ensemble contributed models was consistently reliable any single model, projection interval coverage near target levels for most plausible (e.g., 79% 95% interval). operationally guide planning policy at different stages pandemic, illustrating value hub approach long-term

Язык: Английский

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Responding to the Return of Influenza in the United States by Applying Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Surveillance, Analysis, and Modeling to Inform Understanding of Seasonal Influenza

JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 10, С. e54340 - e54340

Опубликована: Фев. 13, 2024

We reviewed the tools that have been developed to characterize and communicate seasonal influenza activity in United States. Here we focus on systematic surveillance applied analytics, including burden disease severity estimation, short-term forecasting, longer-term modeling efforts. For each set of activities, describe challenges opportunities arisen because COVID-19 pandemic. In conclusion, highlight how collaboration communication will continue be key components reliable actionable monitoring, activities.

Язык: Английский

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