Global surface air temperatures in CMIP6: historical performance and future changes DOI Creative Commons
Xuewei Fan, Qingyun Duan,

Chenwei Shen

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(10), P. 104056 - 104056

Published: Aug. 18, 2020

Abstract Surface air temperature outputs from 16 global climate models participating in the sixth phase of coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6) were used to evaluate agreement with observations over land surface for period 1901–2014. Projections multi-model mean under four different shared socioeconomic pathways also examined. The results reveal that majority reasonably capture dominant features spatial variations observed a pattern correlation typically greater than 0.98, but large variability across and regions. In addition, CMIP6 can trends temperatures shown by observational data during 1901–1940 (warming), 1941–1970 (cooling) 1971–2014 (rapid warming). By end 21st century, scenarios is projected increase 1.18 °C/100 yr (SSP1-2.6), 3.22 (SSP2-4.5), 5.50 (SSP3-7.0) 7.20 (SSP5-8.5), warming high latitudes northern hemisphere weaker tropics southern hemisphere. Results probability density distributions further indicate increases frequency magnitude warm extremes may occur future.

Language: Английский

Anthropogenic stresses on the world’s big rivers DOI
Jim Best

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 7 - 21

Published: Dec. 7, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

1042
Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods DOI
Beth Tellman, Jonathan A. Sullivan, C Kuhn

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 596(7870), P. 80 - 86

Published: Aug. 4, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

843
Climate Extremes and Compound Hazards in a Warming World DOI Open Access
Amir AghaKouchak, Felicia Chiang,

Laurie S. Huning

et al.

Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 48(1), P. 519 - 548

Published: Feb. 20, 2020

Climate extremes threaten human health, economic stability, and the well-being of natural built environments (e.g., 2003 European heat wave). As world continues to warm, climate hazards are expected increase in frequency intensity. The impacts extreme events will also be more severe due increased exposure (growing population development) vulnerability (aging infrastructure) settlements. models attribute part projected increases intensity disasters anthropogenic emissions changes land use cover. Here, we review impacts, historical changes,and theoretical research gaps key (heat waves, droughts, wildfires, precipitation, flooding). We highlight need improve our understanding dependence between individual interrelated because anthropogenic-induced warming risk not only but compound (co-occurring) cascading hazards. ▪ a world. Anthropogenic-induced causes drivers

Language: Английский

Citations

683
Global Changes in Drought Conditions Under Different Levels of Warming DOI Creative Commons
Gustavo Naumann, Lorenzo Alfieri, Klaus Wyser

et al.

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 45(7), P. 3285 - 3296

Published: March 26, 2018

Higher evaporative demands and more frequent persistent dry spells associated with rising temperatures suggest that drought conditions could worsen in many regions of the world. In this study, we assess how may develop across globe for 1.5, 2, 3°C warming compared to preindustrial temperatures. Results show two thirds global population will experience a progressive increase warming. For drying areas, durations are projected rise at rapidly increasing rates warming, averaged globally from 2.0 month/°C below 1.5°C 4.2 when approaching 3°C. Drought magnitudes double 30% landmass under stringent mitigation. If contemporary continue, water supply-demand deficits become fivefold size most Africa, Australia, southern Europe, central states United States, Central America, Caribbean, north-west China, parts Southern America. approximately 20% land surface, magnitude halve higher levels, mainly areas north latitude 55°N, but also South America Eastern South-eastern Asia. A significant frequency droughts is Mediterranean basin, West Asia, Oceania, where happen 5 10 times even ambitious mitigation targets current 100-year events occur every five years

Language: Английский

Citations

650
Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming DOI
Francesco Dottori, Wojciech Szewczyk, Juan-Carlos Ciscar

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(9), P. 781 - 786

Published: Aug. 15, 2018

Language: Английский

Citations

597
A comparative assessment of flood susceptibility modeling using Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis and Machine Learning Methods DOI
Khabat Khosravi, Himan Shahabi, Binh Thai Pham

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 573, P. 311 - 323

Published: March 22, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

558
Flood exposure and poverty in 188 countries DOI Creative Commons
Jun Rentschler, Melda Salhab, Bramka Arga Jafino

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Flooding is among the most prevalent natural hazards, with particularly disastrous impacts in low-income countries. This study presents global estimates of number people exposed to high flood risks interaction poverty. It finds that 1.81 billion (23% world population) are directly 1-in-100-year floods. Of these, 1.24 located South and East Asia, where China (395 million) India (390 account for over one-third exposure. Low- middle-income countries home 89% world’s flood-exposed people. 170 million facing risk extreme poverty (living on under $1.90 per day), 44% Sub-Saharan Africa. Over 780 those living $5.50 day face risk. Using state-of-the-art data, our findings highlight scale priority regions mitigation measures support resilient development.

Language: Английский

Citations

473
A global multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure assets DOI Creative Commons
Elco Koks, Julie Rozenberg, Conrad Zorn

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: June 25, 2019

Transport infrastructure is exposed to natural hazards all around the world. Here we present first global estimates of multi-hazard exposure and risk road rail infrastructure. Results reveal that ~27% railway assets are at least one hazard ~7.5% a 1/100 year flood event. Global Expected Annual Damages (EAD) due direct damage range from 3.1 22 billion US dollars, which ~73% caused by surface river flooding. EAD small relative GDP (~0.02%). However, in some countries reach 0.5 1% annually, same order magnitude as national transport budgets. A cost-benefit analysis suggests increasing protection would have positive returns on ~60% roads

Language: Английский

Citations

441
Causes, impacts and patterns of disastrous river floods DOI
Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl, Sergiy Vorogushyn

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(9), P. 592 - 609

Published: Aug. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

434
Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models DOI Creative Commons
Marco Turco, Juan José Rosa-Cánovas, Joaquín Bedia

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Sept. 14, 2018

The observed trend towards warmer and drier conditions in southern Europe is projected to continue the next decades, possibly leading increased risk of large fires. However, an assessment climate change impacts on fires at above 1.5 °C Paris target still missing. Here, we estimate future summer burned area Mediterranean under 1.5, 2, 3 global warming scenarios, accounting for possible modifications climate-fire relationships changed climatic owing productivity alterations. We found that such could be beneficial, roughly halving fire-intensifying signals. In any case, robustly increase. higher level is, larger increase area, ranging from ~40% ~100% across scenarios. Our results indicate significant benefits would obtained if were limited well below 2 °C. A will affect wildfire activity but relationship warming. Here authors use models with a non-stationary show avoid doubling coming decades must stay target.

Language: Английский

Citations

390