Hydrological Sciences Journal,
Journal Year:
2018,
Volume and Issue:
63(4), P. 493 - 512
Published: March 12, 2018
This
study
analyses
the
differences
in
significant
trends
magnitude
and
frequency
of
floods
detected
annual
maximum
flood
(AMF)
peak
over
threshold
(POT)
series,
for
period
1965–2005.
Flood
peaks
are
identified
from
European
daily
discharge
data
using
a
baseflow-based
algorithm
AMF
series
compared
with
those
POT
derived
six
different
exceedence
thresholds.
The
results
show
that
more
than
magnitude.
Spatially
coherent
patterns
detected,
which
further
investigated
by
stratifying
into
five
regions
based
on
catchment
hydro-climatic
characteristics.
All
tools
used
this
open-access
fully
reproducible.
Water Resources Research,
Journal Year:
2018,
Volume and Issue:
54(11), P. 8545 - 8551
Published: Nov. 1, 2018
Abstract
Despite
evidence
of
increasing
precipitation
extremes,
corresponding
for
increases
in
flooding
remains
elusive.
If
anything,
flood
magnitudes
are
decreasing
despite
widespread
claims
by
the
climate
community
that
if
extremes
increase,
floods
must
also.
In
this
commentary
we
suggest
reasons
why
extreme
rainfall
not
resulting
flooding.
Among
possible
mechanisms
responsible,
identify
decreases
antecedent
soil
moisture,
storm
extent,
and
snowmelt.
We
argue
understanding
link
between
changes
is
a
grand
challenge
hydrologic
deserving
increased
attention.
Water Resources Research,
Journal Year:
2019,
Volume and Issue:
55(6), P. 4582 - 4593
Published: May 14, 2019
Abstract
Inferring
the
mechanisms
causing
river
flooding
is
key
to
understanding
past,
present,
and
future
flood
risk.
However,
a
quantitative
spatially
distributed
overview
of
that
drive
across
Europe
currently
unavailable.
In
addition,
studies
classify
catchments
according
their
flood‐driving
often
identify
single
mechanism
per
location,
although
multiple
typically
contribute
We
introduce
new
method
uses
seasonality
statistics
estimate
relative
importance
extreme
precipitation,
soil
moisture
excess,
snowmelt
as
drivers.
Applying
this
European
data
set
maximum
annual
flow
dates
in
several
thousand
reveals
from
1960
2010
relatively
few
floods
were
caused
by
rainfall
peaks.
Instead,
most
concurrence
heavy
precipitation
with
high
antecedent
moisture.
For
catchments,
these
has
not
substantially
changed
during
past
five
decades.
Exposing
regional
underlying
Europe's
costly
natural
hazard
first
step
identifying
processes
require
attention
research.
Abstract
Predictions
of
floods,
droughts,
and
fast
drought‐flood
transitions
are
required
at
different
time
scales
to
develop
management
strategies
targeted
minimizing
negative
societal
economic
impacts.
Forecasts
daily
seasonal
scale
vital
for
early
warning,
estimation
event
frequency
hydraulic
design,
long‐term
projections
developing
adaptation
future
conditions.
All
three
types
predictions—forecasts,
estimates,
projections—typically
treat
droughts
floods
independently,
even
though
both
extremes
can
be
studied
using
related
approaches
have
similar
challenges.
In
this
review,
we
(a)
identify
challenges
common
drought
flood
prediction
their
joint
assessment
(b)
discuss
tractable
tackle
these
We
group
into
four
interrelated
categories:
data,
process
understanding,
modeling
prediction,
human–water
interactions.
Data‐related
include
data
availability
definition.
Process‐related
the
multivariate
spatial
characteristics
extremes,
non‐stationarities,
changes
in
extremes.
Modeling
arise
analysis,
stochastic,
hydrological,
earth
system,
modeling.
Challenges
with
respect
interactions
lie
establishing
links
impacts,
representing
interactions,
science
communication.
potential
ways
tackling
including
exploiting
new
sources,
studying
a
framework,
influences
compounding
drivers,
continuous
stochastic
models
or
non‐stationary
models,
obtaining
stakeholder
feedback.
Tackling
one
several
will
improve
predictions
help
minimize
impacts
extreme
events.
This
article
is
categorized
under:
Science
Water
>
Advances in Water Resources,
Journal Year:
2017,
Volume and Issue:
111, P. 132 - 155
Published: Oct. 19, 2017
The
detection
and
attribution
of
long-term
patterns
in
hydrological
time
series
have
been
important
research
topics
for
decades.
A
significant
portion
the
literature
regards
such
as
'deterministic
components'
or
'trends'
even
though
complexity
systems
does
not
allow
easy
deterministic
explanations
attributions.
Consequently,
trend
estimation
techniques
developed
to
make
justify
statements
about
tendencies
historical
data,
which
are
often
used
predict
future
events.
Testing
hypothesis
on
observed
is
widespread
hydro-meteorological
mainly
due
interest
detecting
consequences
human
activities
cycle.
This
analysis
usually
relies
application
some
null
significance
tests
(NHSTs)
slowly-varying
and/or
abrupt
changes,
Mann-Kendall,
Pettitt,
similar,
summary
statistics
(e.g.,
annual
averages,
maxima,
minima,
etc.).
However,
reliability
this
has
seldom
explored
detail.
paper
discusses
misuse,
misinterpretation,
logical
flaws
NHST
trends
data
from
three
different
points
view:
historic-logical,
semantic-epistemological,
practical.
Based
a
review
rationale,
basic
statistical
definitions
stationarity,
nonstationarity,
ergodicity,
we
show
that
if
empirical
always
feasible
numerical
point
view,
it
uninformative
inference
nonstationarity
without
assuming
priori
additional
information
underlying
stochastic
process,
according
deductive
reasoning.
prevents
use
outcomes
support
nonstationary
frequency
modeling.
We
also
correlation
structures
characterizing
might
easily
be
underestimated,
further
compromising
attempt
draw
conclusions
spanning
period
records.
Moreover,
adjusting
procedures
accounting
developed,
them
insufficient
applied
only
tests,
while
others
theoretically
flawed
but
still
widely
applied.
In
particular,
using
250
unimpacted
stream
flow
across
conterminous
United
States
(CONUS),
test
results
can
dramatically
change
sequences
values
reproduced
starting
daily
records,
whose
larger
sizes
enable
more
reliable
assessment
structures.
Geophysical Research Letters,
Journal Year:
2016,
Volume and Issue:
43(24)
Published: Nov. 14, 2016
Abstract
Flooding
is
projected
to
become
more
frequent
as
warming
temperatures
amplify
the
atmosphere's
water
holding
capacity
and
increase
occurrence
of
extreme
precipitation
events.
However,
there
still
little
evidence
regional
changes
in
flood
risk
across
USA.
Here
we
present
a
novel
approach
assessing
trends
inundation
frequency
above
National
Weather
Service's
four
level
categories
2042
catchments.
Results
reveal
stark
patterns
changing
that
are
broadly
consistent
categories.
We
show
these
dependent
on
overall
wetness
potential
storage,
with
fundamental
implications
for
resources
management,
agriculture,
insurance,
navigation,
ecology,
populations
living
flood‐affected
areas.
Our
findings
may
assist
better
communication
wider
audience
compared
traditional
stating
terms
discharge
magnitudes
frequencies.
Hydrology and earth system sciences,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
25(7), P. 3897 - 3935
Published: July 7, 2021
Abstract.
Hydroclimatic
extremes
such
as
intense
rainfall,
floods,
droughts,
heatwaves,
and
wind
or
storms
have
devastating
effects
each
year.
One
of
the
key
challenges
for
society
is
understanding
how
these
are
evolving
likely
to
unfold
beyond
their
historical
distributions
under
influence
multiple
drivers
changes
in
climate,
land
cover,
other
human
factors.
Methods
analysing
hydroclimatic
advanced
considerably
recent
decades.
Here
we
provide
a
review
drivers,
metrics,
methods
detection,
attribution,
management,
projection
nonstationary
extremes.
We
discuss
issues
uncertainty
associated
with
approaches
(e.g.
arising
from
insufficient
record
length,
spurious
nonstationarities,
incomplete
representation
sources
modelling
frameworks),
examine
empirical
simulation-based
frameworks
analysis
extremes,
identify
gaps
future
research.
