Key indicators of Arctic climate change: 1971–2017

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 045010 - 045010

Published: April 8, 2019

Key observational indicators of climate change in the Arctic, most spanning a 47 year period (1971–2017) demonstrate fundamental changes among nine key elements Arctic system. We find that, coherent with increasing air temperature, there is an intensification hydrological cycle, evident from increases humidity, precipitation, river discharge, glacier equilibrium line altitude and land ice wastage. Downward trends continue sea thickness (and extent) spring snow cover extent duration, while near-surface permafrost continues to warm. Several exhibit significant statistical correlation temperature or reinforcing notion that temperatures precipitation are drivers major various components To progress beyond presentation physical changes, we correspondence between biophysical such as tundra biomass identify numerous disruptions cascading effects throughout trophic levels. These include: increased delivery organic matter nutrients near‐coastal zones; condensed flowering pollination plant species periods; timing mismatch pollinators; vulnerability insect disturbance; shrub biomass; ignition wildfires; growing season CO2 uptake, counterbalancing shoulder winter emissions; carbon cycling, regulated by local hydrology thaw; conversion terrestrial aquatic ecosystems; shifting animal distribution demographics. The system now clearly trending away its 20th Century state into unprecedented state, implications not only within but Arctic. indicator time series this study freely downloadable at AMAP.no.

Language: Английский

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Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 47(10)

Published: April 17, 2020

Abstract We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. find that models produce a wide spread mean area, capturing the observational estimate within multimodel ensemble spread. The provides more realistic sensitivity September to given amount anthropogenic CO 2 emissions global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most fail simulate at same time plausible evolution surface temperature. In vast majority available simulations, Ocean becomes practically free (sea‐ice <1 × 10 6 km ) in for first before Year 2050 each four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

Language: Английский

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Version 2 of the EUMETSAT OSI SAF and ESA CCI sea-ice concentration climate data records

˜The œcryosphere, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 49 - 78

Published: Jan. 9, 2019

Abstract. We introduce the OSI-450, SICCI-25km and SICCI-50km climate data records of gridded global sea-ice concentration. These three are derived from passive microwave satellite offer distinct advantages compared to existing records: first, all provide quantitative information on uncertainty possibly applied filtering at every grid point time step. Second, they based dynamic tie points, which capture evolution surface characteristics ice cover accommodate potential calibration differences between missions. Third, produced in context sustained services offering committed extension, documentation, traceability, user support. The differ underlying (SMMR &amp; SSM/I SSMIS or AMSR-E AMSR2), imaging frequency channels (37 GHz either 6 19 GHz), their horizontal resolution (25 50 km), period cover. algorithms an evaluation. find that compare well with independent estimates concentration both regions very high low hence trust these will prove helpful for a better understanding Earth's

Language: Английский

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Environmental effects of ozone depletion, UV radiation and interactions with climate change: UNEP Environmental Effects Assessment Panel, update 2017

Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 127 - 179

Published: Feb. 1, 2018

Language: Английский

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Assessment of Sea Ice Extent in CMIP6 With Comparison to Observations and CMIP5

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 47(9)

Published: April 23, 2020

Abstract Both the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents (SIEs) from 44 coupled models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are evaluated by comparing them with observations CMIP5 results. The CMIP6 multimodel mean can adequately reproduce seasonal cycles of both SIE. observed September SIE declining trend (−0.82 ± 0.18 million km 2 per decade) between 1979 2014 is slightly underestimated (−0.70 0.06 decade). weak but significant upward not captured, which was an issue already phase. Compared models, have lower intermodel spreads values trends, although their biases relatively larger. did new summer tendencies after 2000, including faster decline larger interannual variability

Language: Английский

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An enhancement to sea ice motion and age products at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)

˜The œcryosphere, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 1519 - 1536

Published: May 7, 2020

Abstract. A new version of sea ice motion and age products includes several significant upgrades in processing, corrects known issues with the previous version, updates time series through 2018, regular planned for future. First, we provide a history these NASA distributed at National Snow Ice Data Center. Then discuss improvements to algorithms, validation results (Version 4) older versions, intercompare two. While Version 4 algorithm changes were significant, impact on is relatively minor, particularly more recent years. The reduce biases by ∼ 0.01 0.02 cm s−1 error standard deviations 0.3 s−1. Overall, speed increased over 3 0.5 2.0 most series. shows higher positive trend Arctic 0.21 per decade compared 0.13 3. estimates indicates than 3, especially earlier record, but similar trends toward less multiyear ice. Changes derived from product show shift cover, pack high concentration cover dominated first-year ice, which susceptible summer melt. We also observe an increase ≥ 30 years, has been shown other studies anticipated annual decrease extent.

Language: Английский

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Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 28 - 33

Published: Oct. 30, 2018

Language: Английский

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Satellite and In Situ Observations for Advancing Global Earth Surface Modelling: A Review

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 10(12), P. 2038 - 2038

Published: Dec. 14, 2018

In this paper, we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can handle both random systematic errors result effective model improvement for monitoring prediction applications. The reasons diverse products include (i) their complementary areal temporal coverage, (ii) covariant information content, (iii) ability complement observations, which are often sparse only locally representative. To improve our understanding complex behavior system at sub-surface, need large volumes from high-resolution modelling sensing, since exhibits a high degree heterogeneity discontinuities space time. spatial variability biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere anthroposphere calls an increased observation (EO) attaining previously considered prohibitive. We availability discuss recent examples where satellite is used infer observable quantities directly or indirectly, particular emphasis on key parameters necessary weather climate prediction. Coordinated remote-sensing modelling/assimilation capabilities required support international application-focused effort.

Language: Английский

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Drivers, dynamics and impacts of changing Arctic coasts

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1), P. 39 - 54

Published: Jan. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

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An emergent constraint on future Arctic sea-ice albedo feedback

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(12), P. 972 - 978

Published: Nov. 11, 2019

Language: Английский

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