Synthesizing multiple data types for biological conservation using integrated population models

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 217, P. 240 - 250

Published: Nov. 20, 2017

Language: Английский

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Integrated population models facilitate ecological understanding and improved management decisions

Journal of Wildlife Management, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 82(2), P. 266 - 274

Published: Dec. 4, 2017

ABSTRACT Integrated population models (IPMs) represent a formal statistical methodology for combining multiple data sets such as counts, band recoveries, and fecundity estimates into single unified analysis with dual objectives: better estimating size, trajectory, vital rates; formally describing the ecological processes that generated these patterns. Although IPMs have been used in ecology fisheries management, their use wildlife management has limited. Data available North American waterfowl are unprecedented terms of time span (>60 years) geographic coverage, especially well‐suited development could improve understanding help guide future harvest habitat decisions. In this overview, we illustrate 3 potential benefits IPMs: integration sources (i.e., mark‐recapture data, estimates), increased precision parameter estimates, ability to estimate missing demographic parameters by reanalyzing results from historical study canvasbacks ( Aythya valisineria ). Drawing our own published unpublished work, demonstrate how be identify critical rates had greatest influence on change lesser scaup affinis ), evaluate mechanisms compensation black ducks Anas rubripes or prioritize most appropriate places conduct benefit northern pintails acuta provide powerful platform evaluating alternative hypotheses about regulation they advance managers make ecologically based © 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Language: Английский

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Lessons to be learned by comparing integrated fisheries stock assessment models (SAMs) with integrated population models (IPMs)

Fisheries Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 272, P. 106925 - 106925

Published: Jan. 5, 2024

Integrated fisheries stock assessment models (SAMs) and integrated population (IPMs) are used in biological ecological systems to estimate abundance demographic rates. The approaches fundamentally very similar, but historically have been considered as separate endeavors, resulting a loss of shared vision, practice progress. We review the two identify similarities differences, with view identifying key lessons that would benefit more generally overarching topic ecology. present case study for each SAM (snapper from west coast New Zealand) IPM (woodchat shrikes Germany) highlight differences similarities. between SAMs IPMs appear be objectives parameter estimates required meet these objectives, size spatial scale populations, differing availability various types data. In addition, up now, typical applied aquatic habitats, while most stem terrestrial habitats. aim assess level sustainable exploitation fish so absolute or biomass must estimated, although some only relative trends. Relative is often sufficient understand dynamics inform conservation actions, which main objective IPMs. small populations concern, where uncertainty can important, conveniently implemented using Bayesian approaches. typically at moderate scales (1 104 km2), possibility collecting detailed longitudinal individual data, whereas large, economically valuable stocks large (104 106 km2) limited There sense data- (or information-) hungry than an because its goal abundance, data rates difficult obtain (often marine) applied. therefore require 'tuning' assumptions IPMs, 'data speak themselves', consequently techniques such weighting model evaluation nuanced being fit disaggregated quantify variation allow richer inference on processes. attempts example by unconditional capture-recapture

Language: Английский

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Disentangling data discrepancies with integrated population models

Ecology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 100(6)

Published: March 30, 2019

Abstract A common challenge for studying wildlife populations occurs when different survey methods provide inconsistent or incomplete inference on the trend, dynamics, viability of a population. potential solution to conflicting piecemeal data relies integration multiple types into unified modeling framework, such as integrated population models ( IPM s). s are powerful approach species that inhabit spatially and seasonally complex environments. We guidance exploiting capabilities address inferential discrepancies stem from spatiotemporal mismatches. illustrate this issue with analysis migratory species, American Woodcock Scolopax minor ), in which individual monitoring programs suggest differing trends. To discrepancy, we synthesized several long‐term sets (1963–2015) within an estimate continental‐scale trends, link dynamic drivers across full annual cycle complete extent woodcock's geographic range eastern North America. Our reveals limiting portions life by identifying time periods regions where vital rates lowest most variable, well demographic parameters constitute main change. conclude providing recommendations resolving estimates approach, discuss how strategies (e.g., thinning, expert opinion elicitation) other disciplines could be incorporated ecological analyses attempting combine multiple, incongruent types.

Language: Английский

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Integrated population models: Model assumptions and inference

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(7), P. 1072 - 1082

Published: April 25, 2019

Abstract Integrated population models ( IPM s) have become increasingly popular for the modelling of populations, as investigators seek to combine survey and demographic data understand processes governing dynamics. These are particularly useful identifying exploring knowledge gaps within life histories, because they allow estimate biologically meaningful parameters, such immigration or reproduction, that were previously unidentifiable without additional data. As s been developed relatively recently, there is much learn about model behaviour. Behaviour estimates near boundaries, consequences varying degrees dependency among datasets, has explored. However, reliability parameter remains underexamined, when include parameters not identifiable from one source, but indirectly multiple datasets a presumed structure, estimation using capture‐recapture, fecundity count data, combined with life‐history model. To examine behaviour estimates, we simulated stable populations closed emigration. We two scenarios might induce error into survival estimates: marker induced bias in capture–mark–recapture heterogeneity mortality process. subsequently fit capture–mark–recapture, state‐space models, well estimated parameters. Simulation results suggested assumptions violated, additional, unidentifiable, may be extremely sensitive these violations assumption. For example, annual loss was simulated, rates low rate an high. When process induced, substantial relative differences between medians posterior distributions truth juvenile fecundity. Our important implications biological inference s, future development implementation. Specifically, identify resulted directly reflecting effects integrated frameworks. suggest interpret combination systematic error.

Language: Английский

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Conflicts in the coastal zone: human impacts on commercially important fish species utilizing coastal habitat

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 75(4), P. 1203 - 1213

Published: Dec. 18, 2017

Abstract Coastal ecosystems are ecologically, culturally, and economically important, hence under pressure from diverse human activities. We reviewed the literature for existing evidence of effects human-induced habitat changes on exploited fish utilizing coastal habitats. focused species Northeast Atlantic which fisheries advice is provided by International Council Exploration Sea (ICES) utilize habitats at least one life-history stage (LHS). found that 92% these impacted activity in LHS while 38% multiple stages. Anthropogenic pressures most commonly shown to impact were toxicants pollutants (75% species). Eutrophication anoxia, invasive species, physical development affected about half (58, 54, 42% respectively), indirect fishing impacts a minority (17% Moreover, 71% ICES face more than pressure, implying cumulative effects. Given three-fourths commercial landings come habitats, there an obvious need better understanding activities cause ecosystem-based management.

Language: Английский

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An assessment of population size and demographic drivers of the Bearded Vulture using integrated population models

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 90(3)

Published: April 28, 2020

Abstract Conventional approaches for the assessment of population abundance or trends are usually based on a single source information, such as counts changes in demographic parameters. However, these neglect some information needed to properly understand whole, assessments non‐breeding proportion and drivers change. The Bearded Vulture Gypaetus barbatus is threatened species its Pyrenean (the largest Europe) inhabits parts Spain, Andorra, France. We developed an Integrated Population Model (IPM) using data from long‐term study (1987–2016) three countries, including capture–mark–recapture 150 marked individuals, assess size age structure at whole scale, obtain estimates survival breeding parameters this population. experienced geometric mean increase 3.3% annually, falling 2.3% during last 10 yr. adult increased with time, 61% 73%. There were 365 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI]: 354–373) birds 2016, representing 49% 36% total (estimated 1,026 95% BCI: 937–1,119). large number adults probably led higher first reproduction than previously estimated, estimated 30–35% territories occupied by polyandrous trios. growth rate was positively strongly correlated survival, which had much greater effect productivity. effects subadult juvenile weaker. found strong evidence density‐dependent decrease productivity leading reduced size. Our approach allowed us identify important conservation issues related management supplementary feeding sites geographic expansion supports use IPMs tool long‐lived species, allowing simultaneous (which critical understanding functioning), better parameters, drivers.

Language: Английский

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Contributions from terrestrial and marine resources stabilize predator populations in a rapidly changing climate

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(6)

Published: June 1, 2021

Abstract Climate change has different and sometimes divergent effects on terrestrial marine food webs, in coastal ecosystems, these are tightly interlinked. Responses of opportunistic predators scavengers to climate may thus be complex potentially highly flexible, can simultaneously serve as indicators of, have profound impacts on, lower trophic levels. Gaining mechanistic understanding responses is therefore important, but often not feasible due lack long‐term data from marked individuals. Here, we used a Bayesian integrated population model (IPM) elucidate the arctic warming concurrent changes resource availability dynamics fox ( Vulpes lagopus ) Svalbard. Joint analysis four types (den survey, age‐at‐harvest, placental scars, mark‐recovery) revealed relatively stable size age structure over last 22 yr (1997–2019) despite rapid environmental linked warming. This was related fact that resources (reindeer carcasses, geese) became more abundant while (seal pups/carrion) decreased, driven by trends vital rates (e.g., increased pregnancy rate decreased pup survival). Balanced contributions survival vs. reproduction immigration local demography further stabilized size. Our study sheds light mechanisms underlying carnivores exploiting suggests exploitation across ecosystems buffer against change. Additionally, it highlights large potential IPMs tools understand predict wildlife populations, even when individuals sparse.

Language: Английский

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Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals

Journal of Animal Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 93(5), P. 632 - 645

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

Abstract Identifying important demographic drivers of population dynamics is fundamental for understanding life‐history evolution and implementing effective conservation measures. Integrated models (IPMs) coupled with transient life table response experiments (tLTREs) allow ecologists to quantify the contributions parameters observed change. While IPMs can estimate that are not estimable using any data source alone, example, immigration, estimated contribution such change prone bias. Currently, it unclear when robust conclusions be drawn from them. We sought understand a rebounding southern elephant seal on Marion Island IPM–tLTRE framework, applied count mark–recapture 9500 female seals over nearly 40 years. Given uncertainty around estimates we also aimed investigate utility simulation sensitivity analyses as general tools evaluating robustness obtained in this framework. Using Bayesian IPM tLTRE analysis, quantified survival, immigration structure growth. assessed our choice multivariate priors other vital rates. To do so make novel application Gaussian process priors, comparison commonly used shrinkage priors. simulation, model's ability under different levels temporal variance immigration. The analysis suggested adult survival were most recent was sensitive prior choices, consistently large. Furthermore, study validated importance by showing its unlikely result biased overestimate. Our results highlight connectivity between distant populations seals, illustrating dispersal regulating abundance local even natal site fidelity high. More generally, demonstrate how ecological may about combining simulation.

Language: Английский

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Characterizing spatio-temporal variation in survival and recruitment with integrated population models

Ornithology, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 135(3), P. 409 - 426

Published: April 11, 2018

Efforts to understand population dynamics and identify high-quality habitat require information about spatial variation in demographic parameters. However, estimating parameters typically requires labor-intensive capture–recapture methods that are difficult implement over large extents. Spatially explicit integrated models (IPMs) provide a solution by accommodating (SCR) data collected at small number of sites with survey may be much larger extent. We extended the IPM framework include spatio-temporal point process model for recruitment, we applied 4 yr SCR distance-sampling on Canada Warblers (Cardellina canadensis) near southern extent species' breeding range North Carolina, USA, where climate change is predicted cause declines distributional shifts toward higher elevations. To characterize gradient our study area, modeled density, survival, per capita recruitment as functions elevation. used male-only because males comprised >90% point-count detections. Apparent survival was low but increased elevation, from 0.040 (95% credible interval [CI]: 0.0032–0.12) 900 m 0.29 CI: 0.16–0.42) 1,500 m. Recruitment not strongly associated yet density varied greatly, <0.03 ha–1 below 1,000 >0.2 above 1,400 Point estimates growth rate were <1 all elevations, 95% CIs included 1. Additional research needed assess possibility long-term decline examine effects abiotic variables biotic interactions influencing distribution. The modeling developed here provides platform addressing these issues advancing knowledge demography dynamics.

Language: Английский

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