Frontiers in Forests and Global Change,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
6
Published: Jan. 4, 2024
As
disturbances
continue
to
increase
in
magnitude
and
severity
under
climate
change,
there
is
an
urgency
develop
climate-informed
management
solutions
resilience
help
sustain
the
supply
of
ecosystem
services
over
long
term.
Towards
this
goal,
we
used
analog
modeling
combined
with
logic-based
conditions
assessments
quantify
future
resource
stability
(FRS)
mid-century
climate.
Analog
models
were
developed
for
nine
projections
1
km
cells
across
California.
For
each
model,
assessed
at
focal
cell
comparison
top
100
locations
using
fuzzy
logic.
Model
outputs
provided
a
measure
support
proposition
that
given
would
be
stable
change.
Raster
six
resources
exhibited
high
degree
spatial
variability
FRS
was
largely
driven
by
biophysical
gradients
State,
cross-correlation
among
suggested
similarities
responses
Overall,
about
one-third
State
low
indicating
lack
potential
losses
time.
Areas
most
vulnerable
change
occurred
lower
elevations
and/or
warmer
winter
summer
environments,
whereas
higher
elevation,
or
mid-elevations
summers
cooler
winters.
The
approach
offered
replicable
methodology
assess
large
regions
multiple,
diverse
resources.
can
readily
integrated
into
decision
systems
guide
strategic
investments.
Ecological Applications,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
33(2)
Published: Oct. 20, 2022
Abstract
Mature
forests
provide
important
wildlife
habitat
and
support
critical
ecosystem
functions
globally.
Within
the
dry
conifer
of
western
United
States,
past
management
fire
exclusion
have
contributed
to
forest
conditions
that
are
susceptible
increasingly
severe
wildfire
drought.
We
evaluated
declines
in
cover
southern
Sierra
Nevada
California
during
a
decade
record
disturbance
by
using
spatially
comprehensive
structure
estimates,
perimeter
data,
eDaRT
tracking
algorithm.
Primarily
due
combination
wildfires,
drought,
drought‐associated
beetle
epidemics,
30%
region's
extent
transitioned
nonforest
vegetation
2011–2020.
In
total,
50%
mature
85%
high
density
either
lower
or
types.
spotted
owl
protected
activity
centers
(PAC)
experienced
greater
canopy
decline
(49%
2011
cover)
than
non‐PAC
areas
(42%
decline).
Areas
with
initial
without
tall
trees
were
most
vulnerable
declines,
likely
explaining
disproportionate
within
PACs.
Drought
attack
caused
cumulative
where
drought
mortality
overlapped,
both
types
natural
far
outpaced
attributable
mechanical
activities.
disproportionately
affects
large
conifers
is
particularly
problematic
specialist
species
reliant
on
trees.
However,
patches
degraded
perimeters
larger
core
area
those
outside
burned
areas,
remnant
habitats
more
fragmented
affected
alone.
The
percentage
survived
potentially
benefited
from
severity
increased
over
time
as
total
declined.
These
some
opportunity
for
improved
resilience
future
disturbances,
but
strategic
interventions
also
necessary
mitigate
worsening
mega‐disturbances.
Remaining
may
be
complete
loss
coming
decades
rapid
transition
conservation
paradigm
attempts
maintain
static
one
manages
sustainable
dynamics.
Forest Ecology and Management,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
528, P. 120620 - 120620
Published: Nov. 14, 2022
Although
recent
large
wildfires
in
California
forests
are
well
publicized
media
and
scientific
literature,
their
cumulative
effects
on
forest
structure
implications
for
resilience
remain
poorly
understood.
In
this
study,
we
evaluated
spatial
patterns
of
burn
severity
18
exceptionally
fires
compared
impacts
to
the
hundreds
smaller
that
have
burned
across
decades.
We
used
a
atlas
over
1,800
predominantly
conifer
between
1985
2020
calculated
landscape
metrics
evaluate
spatiotemporal
unburned
refugia,
low-moderate-severity,
high-severity
post-fire
effects.
Total
annual
area
burned,
mean
fire
size,
total
core
at
high
all
significantly
increased
study
period.
Exceptionally
(i.e.,
top
1%
by
size)
were
responsible
58%
42%
low-moderate
severities,
respectively,
With
larger
patch
sizes,
our
results
suggest
coarsen
pattern
California’s
forests,
reducing
fine-scale
heterogeneity
which
supports
much
biodiversity
as
wildfire
climate
resilience.
Thus
far,
most
modern
management
has
focused
restoring
cover
minimizing
ecotype
conversion
large,
patches.
These
fires,
however,
also
provided
extensive
areas
burns
where
managers
could
leverage
wildfire’s
initial
“treatment”
with
follow-up
fuel
reduction
treatments
help
restore
finer-scale
Ecosphere,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
14(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2023
Abstract
Although
fire
is
a
fundamental
ecological
process
in
western
North
American
forests,
climate
warming
and
accumulating
forest
fuels
due
to
suppression
have
led
wildfires
that
burn
at
high
severity
across
larger
fractions
of
their
footprint
than
were
historically
typical.
These
trends
spiked
upwards
recent
years
are
particularly
pronounced
the
Sierra
Nevada–Southern
Cascades
ecoregion
California,
USA,
neighboring
states.
We
assessed
annual
area
burned
(AAB)
percentage
low‐to‐moderate
for
seven
major
types
this
region
from
1984
2020.
compared
values
period
against
estimates
pre‐Euro‐American
settlement
(EAS)
prior
1850
previous
study
2009.
Our
results
show
total
average
AAB
remained
below
pre‐EAS
levels,
but
gap
decreasing
(i.e.,
~14%
1984–2009,
39%
2010–2020
[including
~150%
2020]).
has
low
with
pre‐EAS,
both
(AAHS)
wildfire
increased
rapidly.
The
severity,
which
was
already
above
1984–2009
period,
continued
rise
five
types.
Notably,
between
2010
2020,
AAHS
exceeded
first
time
on
record.
By
contrast,
decreased,
lower
elevation
oak
mixed
conifer
findings
underline
how
forests
adapted
frequent
being
reshaped
by
novel
proportions
extents
high‐severity
burning.
shift
toward
high‐severity‐dominated
regime
associated
disruptions,
including
changes
structure,
species
composition,
carbon
storage,
wildlife
habitat,
ecosystem
services,
resilience.
underscore
importance
finding
better
balance
current
management
focus
one
puts
greater
emphasis
proactive
fuel
reduction
resilience
change
disturbance.
Abstract
Escalating
wildfire
activity
in
the
western
United
States
has
accelerated
adverse
societal
impacts.
Observed
increases
severity
and
impacts
to
communities
have
diverse
anthropogenic
causes—including
legacy
of
fire
suppression
policies,
increased
development
high-risk
zones,
aridification
by
a
warming
climate.
However,
intentional
use
as
vegetation
management
tool,
known
“prescribed
fire,”
can
reduce
risk
destructive
fires
restore
ecosystem
resilience.
Prescribed
implementation
is
subject
multiple
constraints,
including
number
days
characterized
weather
conditions
conducive
achieving
desired
outcomes.
Here,
we
quantify
observed
projected
trends
frequency
seasonality
prescribed
days.
We
find
that
while
~2
C
global
2060
will
such
overall
(−17%),
particularly
during
spring
(−25%)
summer
(−31%),
winter
(+4%)
may
increasingly
emerge
comparatively
favorable
window
for
especially
northern
states.
Ecological Applications,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
35(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Abstract
Fire
shapes
biodiversity
in
many
forested
ecosystems,
but
historical
management
practices
and
anthropogenic
climate
change
have
led
to
larger,
more
severe
fires
that
threaten
animal
species
where
such
disturbances
do
not
occur
naturally.
As
predators,
owls
can
play
important
ecological
roles
biological
communities,
how
changing
fire
regimes
affect
individual
assemblages
is
largely
unknown.
Here,
we
examined
the
impact
of
severity,
history,
configuration
over
past
35
years
on
an
assemblage
six
forest
owl
Sierra
Nevada,
California,
using
ecosystem‐scale
passive
acoustic
monitoring.
While
negative
impacts
this
appeared
be
ephemeral
(1–4
duration),
spotted
avoided
sites
burned
at
high‐severity
for
up
two
decades
after
a
fire.
Low‐
moderate‐severity
benefited
small
cavity‐nesting
great
horned
owls.
Most
study
adapted
within
region's
natural
range
variation,
characterized
by
higher
proportions
low‐
relatively
less
some
may
resilient
wildfire
than
others,
novel
“megafires”
are
frequent,
contiguously
limit
distribution
reducing
prevalence
eliminating
habitat
closed‐canopy
multiple
decades.
Management
strategies
restore
with
patches
promote
mosaic
conditions
will
likely
facilitate
conservation
predators.
Ecological Applications,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
34(2)
Published: Nov. 10, 2023
Abstract
Fire
suppression
and
past
selective
logging
of
large
trees
have
fundamentally
changed
frequent‐fire‐adapted
forests
in
California.
The
culmination
these
changes
produced
that
are
vulnerable
to
catastrophic
change
by
wildfire,
drought,
bark
beetles,
with
climate
exacerbating
this
vulnerability.
Management
options
available
address
problem
include
mechanical
treatments
(Mech),
prescribed
fire
(Fire),
or
combinations
(Mech
+
Fire).
We
quantify
forest
structure
composition,
fuel
accumulation,
modeled
behavior,
intertree
competition,
economics
from
a
20‐year
restoration
study
the
northern
Sierra
Nevada.
All
three
active
(Fire,
Mech,
Mech
Fire)
conditions
were
much
more
resistant
wildfire
than
untreated
control.
included
lowest
surface
duff
loads
hazards.
low
hazards
beginning
7
years
after
initial
treatment
had
lower
tree
growth
controls.
only
competition
somewhat
similar
historical
California
mixed‐conifer
was
Fire,
indicating
stands
under
would
likely
be
resilient
enhanced
stressors.
While
reduced
hazard
reintroduced
fundamental
ecosystem
process,
it
done
at
net
cost
landowner.
Using
mastication
thinning
resulted
positive
revenues
also
relatively
strong
as
an
investment
reducing
hazard.
represents
compromise
between
desire
sustain
financial
feasibility
reintroduce
fire.
One
key
component
long‐term
conservation
will
continued
maintain
improve
restoration.
Many
Indigenous
people
speak
“active
stewardship”
one
principles
land
management
aligns
well
need
for
increased
western
US
forests.
If
we
do
not
use
knowledge
20+
research
longer
tradition
cultural
practices
knowledge,
frequent‐fire
continue
degraded
lost.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
120(15)
Published: April 3, 2023
Wildfire
modifies
the
short-
and
long-term
exchange
of
carbon
between
terrestrial
ecosystems
atmosphere,
with
impacts
on
ecosystem
services
such
as
uptake.
Dry
western
US
forests
historically
experienced
low-intensity,
frequent
fires,
patches
across
landscape
occupying
different
points
in
fire-recovery
trajectory.
Contemporary
perturbations,
recent
severe
fires
California,
could
shift
historic
stand-age
distribution
impact
legacy
uptake
landscape.
Here,
we
combine
flux
measurements
gross
primary
production
(GPP)
chronosequence
analysis
using
satellite
remote
sensing
to
investigate
how
last
century
California
impacted
dynamics
fire-affected
A
GPP
recovery
trajectory
curve
more
than
five
thousand
forest
since
1919
indicated
that
fire
reduced
by
[Formula:
see
text]
g
C
m[Formula:
y[Formula:
text]([Formula:
text])
first
year
after
fire,
average
prefire
conditions
y.
The
largest
forested
(n
=
401)
took
two
decades
recover.
Recent
increases
severity
time
have
led
nearly
MMT
CO[Formula:
(3-y
rolling
mean)
cumulative
forgone
due
landscape,
complicating
challenge
maintaining
California's
natural
working
lands
a
net
sink.
Understanding
these
changes
is
paramount
weighing
costs
benefits
associated
fuels
management
for
climate
change
mitigation.