Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs DOI Creative Commons
Nicholas A. Povak, Patricia N. Manley

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

As disturbances continue to increase in magnitude and severity under climate change, there is an urgency develop climate-informed management solutions resilience help sustain the supply of ecosystem services over long term. Towards this goal, we used analog modeling combined with logic-based conditions assessments quantify future resource stability (FRS) mid-century climate. Analog models were developed for nine projections 1 km cells across California. For each model, assessed at focal cell comparison top 100 locations using fuzzy logic. Model outputs provided a measure support proposition that given would be stable change. Raster six resources exhibited high degree spatial variability FRS was largely driven by biophysical gradients State, cross-correlation among suggested similarities responses Overall, about one-third State low indicating lack potential losses time. Areas most vulnerable change occurred lower elevations and/or warmer winter summer environments, whereas higher elevation, or mid-elevations summers cooler winters. The approach offered replicable methodology assess large regions multiple, diverse resources. can readily integrated into decision systems guide strategic investments.

Language: Английский

Forest Structure and Stand Characteristics Influence the Space Use and Fine‐Scale Movements of Fishers (Pekania pennanti) DOI Open Access
Marie E. Martin, Katie M. Moriarty,

Stephen Hayner

et al.

Animal Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 2, 2025

ABSTRACT Understanding animal space use can inform management and conservation, particularly in landscapes where conservation of imperiled species must be balanced with resource by humans. We used GPS collar data to evaluate fisher ( Pekania pennanti ) behavior at multiple spatial scales relation a multi‐scale vegetation structure the southern Cascade mountains Oregon, USA. From 2015 2018, we estimated 9 individual fishers collared during 25 deployments. To whether affected within areas, modeled variation motion variance fine‐scale using step selection functions, including evaluating exhibit for corridor‐type movements. Fisher areas exhibited greater canopy cover, heterogeneity, height than stands available across study landscape. Fishers higher as cover decreased, strongest effects < 26% or 23 m height. Fine‐scale habitat was positively associated height, movements were more likely occur symmetrically shaped, larger forest stands. Importantly, found that but asynchronous responses structural heterogeneity different scales. At fine scales, selected against closer stand edges variable movement open early‐seral areas. Conversely, coarser related shape size Through this work, highlight importance scale‐dependent context when considering on species' illustrate patch characteristics may promote spaceuse offishers other forest‐dependent mixed‐use landscapes.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Conserving landscape dynamics, not just landscapes DOI
Gavin M. Jones,

Craig M. Thompson,

Sarah C. Sawyer

et al.

BioScience, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 24, 2025

Abstract Protected areas form the backbone of modern conservation. However, current policies and practices in protected reinforce a static view nature. This is further enabled by cultural resistance to change, including efforts mitigate or exclude keystone ecosystem processes (e.g., characteristic wildfire) that create maintain desired conditions. protectionist model conservation undervalues human role generating landscape dynamics will be ineffective over long term increasingly short term. Under climatic resisting natural backfire heighten vulnerability transformation through large-scale disturbance megafires megadroughts). Within areas, there an urgent need rethink what we are protecting: conditions generate those Cast different light, could cornerstones for new era conserving across broader geographies.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Characterizing ground and surface fuels across Sierra Nevada forests shortly after the 2012–2016 drought DOI Creative Commons
Emilio Vilanova,

Leif A. Mortenson,

Lauren E. Cox

et al.

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 537, P. 120945 - 120945

Published: April 5, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

10

Consistently heterogeneous structures observed at multiple spatial scales across fire-intact reference sites DOI Creative Commons
Caden P. Chamberlain, Gina R. Cova, C. Alina Cansler

et al.

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 550, P. 121478 - 121478

Published: Oct. 31, 2023

Yellow pine and mixed-conifer (YPMC) forests of California's Sierra Nevada have experienced widespread fire suppression for over a century, resulting in ingrowth densification trees, heavy fuel accumulation, shifts species composition. Under warmer drier climates, these are primed stand-replacing fires severe drought mortality, requiring management interventions to improve their resilience mitigate future impacts. Observations from functioning frequent-fire systems (e.g., contemporary reference sites) can provide key insights about pattern-process relationships fire-intact systems, which be used inform regional efforts. In this study, we airborne lidar data quantify compare forest structure at multiple spatial scales between sites (i.e., with restored frequent, low-intensity regime) control typical fire-suppressed forests). We evaluated structures the neighborhood- (∼1 ha), site- (∼100–1,000 among-site- (∼10,000–100,000 ha) levels. sites, high proportions individual small clumps 2–4 open space formed mostly canopy neighborhood-level, patches neighborhood-level were arranged heterogeneous patterns within sites. observed low variability site-level among indicating stabilizing effect across broad, ecosystem scales. edaphic factors other non-fire disturbances occasionally produced heterogeneity site-level, but degree was not consistent Structural suggest improved climate change, increased provisioning services relative applying metrics help multi-scale multi-resource forests.

Language: Английский

Citations

10

Evaluating climate change impacts on ecosystem resources through the lens of climate analogs DOI Creative Commons
Nicholas A. Povak, Patricia N. Manley

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

As disturbances continue to increase in magnitude and severity under climate change, there is an urgency develop climate-informed management solutions resilience help sustain the supply of ecosystem services over long term. Towards this goal, we used analog modeling combined with logic-based conditions assessments quantify future resource stability (FRS) mid-century climate. Analog models were developed for nine projections 1 km cells across California. For each model, assessed at focal cell comparison top 100 locations using fuzzy logic. Model outputs provided a measure support proposition that given would be stable change. Raster six resources exhibited high degree spatial variability FRS was largely driven by biophysical gradients State, cross-correlation among suggested similarities responses Overall, about one-third State low indicating lack potential losses time. Areas most vulnerable change occurred lower elevations and/or warmer winter summer environments, whereas higher elevation, or mid-elevations summers cooler winters. The approach offered replicable methodology assess large regions multiple, diverse resources. can readily integrated into decision systems guide strategic investments.

Language: Английский

Citations

3