Systematic review of the uncertainty of coral reef futures under climate change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 12, 2024

Abstract Climate change impact syntheses, such as those by the Intergovernmental Panel on Change, consistently assert that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is unlikely safeguard most of world’s coral reefs. This prognosis primarily based a small subset available models apply similar ‘excess heat’ threshold methodologies. Our systematic review 79 articles projecting reef responses climate revealed five main methods. ‘Excess constituted one third (32%) all studies but attracted disproportionate share (68%) citations in field. Most methods relied deterministic cause-and-effect rules rather than probabilistic relationships, impeding field’s ability estimate uncertainty. To synthesize projections, we aimed identify with comparable outputs. However, divergent choices model outputs and scenarios limited analysis fraction studies. We found substantial discrepancies projected impacts, indicating serving basis for syntheses may project more severe consequences other Drawing insights from fields, propose incorporate uncertainty into modeling approaches multi-model ensemble approach generating projections futures.

Language: Английский

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Increasing disturbance frequency undermines coral reef recovery

Ecological Monographs, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 94(3)

Published: June 24, 2024

Abstract Climate‐driven alterations to disturbance regimes are increasingly disrupting patterns of recovery in many biomes. Here, we examine the impact and subsequent level live hard coral cover on Great Barrier Reef (GBR) across last three decades. We demonstrate that a preexisting pattern infrequent disturbances limited spatial extent has changed larger more frequent disturbances, dominated by marine heatwaves severe tropical cyclones. detected an increase (measured as loss) 265 individual impacts 131 reefs 36‐year dataset (1985–2022). Additionally, number survey impacted increased each decade from 6% 1980s 44% 2010s, frequency mass bleaching GBR, which between 19% 28% per year, cyclones (3%–5% year), resulting less time for recovery. Of recorded, complete highest levels recorded earlier this study (the “historical benchmark”) occurred only 62 (23%) times. 23% resulted historical benchmarks, 34/62 recovered their benchmark 2021 or 2022. Complete was likely when <25% cover. The lack attributed windows becoming shorter due increases thermal stress events result episodes. These results confirm climate change is contributing ecosystem‐wide changes ability recover.

Language: Английский

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Management approaches to conserve Australia’s marine ecosystem under climate change

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 381(6658), P. 631 - 636

Published: Aug. 10, 2023

Australia's coastal marine ecosystems have a deep cultural significance to Indigenous Australians, include multiple World Heritage sites, and support the nation's rapidly growing blue economy. Yet, increasing local pressures global climate change are expected undermine biological, social, cultural, economic value of these within human generation. Mitigating causes is most urgent action secure their future; however, conventional new management actions will play roles in preserving ecosystem function until that achieved. This includes strategies codeveloped with Australians guided by traditional ecological knowledge modeling decision framework. We provide examples developments at one iconic ecosystems, Great Barrier Reef, where recent, large block funding supports research, governance, engagement accelerate development tools for under change.

Language: Английский

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Control efforts of crown‐of‐thorns starfish outbreaks to limit future coral decline across the Great Barrier Reef

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(6)

Published: June 1, 2023

Abstract Crown‐of‐thorns starfish (CoTS) naturally occur on coral reefs throughout the Indo‐Pacific region. On Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR), outbreaks of CoTS populations are responsible for ecologically significant losses corals, and while they have been documented decades, now undermine recovery from multiple stressors, especially anthropogenic warming. Culling interventions currently best approach to control GBR, but assessing effectiveness under stressors is complicated. Using an ensemble two reef community models simulating temporal spatial dynamics corals future climate scenarios, we evaluate present‐day current implementation GBR Control Program. Specifically, determine culling effort needed (i.e., number vessels) achieve maximum ecological benefits as predicted by possible warming futures. Benefits were measured comparing projections cover densities scenarios increasing baseline where no was simulated. Projections efforts (five show that individual subject reduced 50%–65% annually, yielding a benefit 5%–7% healthy area per decade, equivalent gaining 104–150 km 2 live 2035. A threefold increase in sufficient reach more than 80% each model, amount required effectively depends intensity early detection outbreaks. While across entire unfeasible, provide framework maximizing ecosystem‐wide guide management decisions reduce levels may ensure persistence face change impacts.

Language: Английский

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Growth and ontogenetic change in juvenile crown-of-thorns sea star (Acanthaster sp.) morphology: Can morphometrics be used as an aging tool?

Coral Reefs, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 6, 2025

Language: Английский

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Greening of grey and murky harbours: enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem functioning on artificial shorelines

Marine Pollution Bulletin, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 216, P. 117961 - 117961

Published: April 25, 2025

Language: Английский

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The spatial risk of cyclone wave damage across the Great Barrier Reef

Ecological Informatics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 103175 - 103175

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Strengthening resilience potential assessments for coral reef management

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 612 - 627

Published: Feb. 21, 2024

Abstract The persistence of diverse yet threatened ecosystems like coral reefs will require urgent action underpinned by effective assessments resilience. Resilience potential are commonly used to identify likely be more resilient disturbances, based on indicators state and function. Assessments intended support decision‐making, therefore, using principles from decision‐science indicator design theory, we evaluated the selection, analysis 68 resilience conducted between 2008 2022. These include justifying testing aggregation approaches, representing key parts ecosystem, considering uncertainty meaningful normalisation indicators. Although a broad range were typically evaluated, rarely present structured processes guide justify such as selection criteria conceptual models ecosystem We also found that certain components confer represented in almost all assessments, corals, herbivory, competition reef structure. Other factors considered, abundance diversity fish trophic groups other than herbivores, for example groupers corallivores, aspects biodiversity competitive interactions with corals. Reference points translate variables into derived data, highest value assessed sites. Ecologically thresholds, collapse or historic levels, less often references. In most cases, not tested validated against independent uncertainties presented, there was tendency simplify results composite indices rank sites, without methods. Despite resource constraints, collect quantitative data useful management. However, shortcomings identified can make interpretation difficult, limiting capacity predict system decisions. Implementation robust approaches drawn theory help strengthen ecosystems, ultimately improving prospects conservation.

Language: Английский

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Coral bleaching and mortality overestimated in projections based on Degree Heating Months

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 23, 2025

Language: Английский

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A photophysiological model of coral bleaching under light and temperature stress: experimental assessment

Conservation Physiology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Marine heatwaves occurring against the backdrop of rising global sea surface temperatures have triggered mass coral bleaching and mortality. Irradiance is critical to growth but also an implicating factor in photodamage, leading expulsion symbiotic algae under increased temperatures. Numerical modelling a valuable tool that can provide insight into state symbiont photochemistry during events. However, very few numerical physiological models combine influence light temperature for simulating bleaching. The model used was derived from representation eReefs configuration CSIRO Environmental Modelling Suite, with most significant change being equation rate detoxification reactive oxygen species. Simulated outcomes were compared photochemical proxies measured ex situ moderate degree-heating week (up 4.4) experiment. response Acropora divaricata assessed unshaded 30% shade treatment. model-simulated timing onset elevated closely corresponded initial decline as observed Increased severity simulated by model, outcome confirmed This first experimental validation temperature-mediated, light-driven perspective symbiont. When forced realistic environmental conditions, process-based mechanistic could improve accuracy predicting heterogeneous contemporary marine heatwave events future climate scenarios. Mechanistic will be invaluable evaluating management interventions deployment reef environments.

Language: Английский

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