Prediction of Climate Change Impacts on the Distribution of an Umbrella Species in Western Sichuan Province, China: Insights from the MaxEnt Model and Circuit Theory
Xiaoyun Deng,
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Qiaoyun Sun
No information about this author
Diversity,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
17(1), P. 67 - 67
Published: Jan. 19, 2025
Climate
change
poses
a
significant
threat
to
biodiversity.
Predicting
the
impacts
of
climate
on
species
distribution
and
dispersal
through
computational
models
big
data
analysis
can
provide
valuable
insights.
These
predictions
are
crucial
for
developing
effective
strategies
mitigate
threats
that
Our
study
investigated
potential
impact
an
umbrella
(Ursus
arctos
pruinosus)
in
Western
Sichuan
Province,
China.
We
employed
MaxEnt
Circuit
Theory
assess
both
current
future
shifts
migration
corridors.
The
results
indicated
environmental
factors
had
greatest
influence
distribution,
with
bioclimatic
variables
bio12,
bio3,
elevation
contributing
22.1%,
21.5%,
19.3%,
respectively.
Under
climatic
conditions,
total
suitable
habitat
area
was
70,969.78
km2,
largest
habitats
located
Shiqu
Litang,
accounting
24.39%
15.86%
area,
However,
under
scenarios,
RCP
2.6,
4.5,
8.5
showed
reduction
ranging
from
7789.26
km2
16,678.85
km2.
Yajiang
Xinlong
counties
experienced
most
severe
reductions,
declines
exceeding
50%.
Additionally,
altitudinal
shifted,
gradually
moving
higher
elevations
scenarios.
also
analyzed
species’
paths.
paths
predominantly
followed
northwest-to-southeast
orientation.
by
2070s,
all
three
RCPs,
resistance
is
projected
significantly
increase,
density
will
decrease,
connectivity
these
be
reduced.
In
extreme
scenario,
southern
nearly
disappeared,
contracted
towards
northwest.
findings
highlight
posed
corridors,
emphasizing
importance
considering
conservation
protect
this
vulnerable
its
ecosystem.
Language: Английский
The primacy of density‐mediated indirect effects in a community of wolves, elk, and aspen
Ecological Monographs,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: Oct. 23, 2024
Abstract
The
removal
or
addition
of
a
predator
in
an
ecosystem
can
trigger
trophic
cascade,
whereby
the
indirectly
influences
plants
and/or
abiotic
processes
via
direct
effects
on
its
herbivore
prey.
A
cascade
operate
through
density‐mediated
indirect
effect
(DMIE),
where
reduces
density
predation,
trait‐mediated
(TMIE),
induces
trait
response
that
modifies
herbivore's
plants.
Manipulative
experiments
suggest
TMIEs
are
equivalent
more
important
driver
cascades
than
DMIEs.
Whether
this
applies
generally
nature
is
uncertain
because
few
studies
have
directly
compared
magnitudes
and
DMIEs
natural
unmanipulated
field
patterns.
TMIE
often
invoked
to
explain
textbook
involving
wolves
(
Canis
lupus
),
elk
Cervus
canadensis
aspen
Populus
tremuloides
)
northern
Yellowstone
National
Park.
This
hypothesis
posits
increase
recruitment
young
into
overstory
primarily
reduced
browsing
spatial
variation
wolf
predation
risk
rather
population
density.
To
test
hypothesis,
we
spatiotemporal
temporal
patterns
across
113
stands
over
21‐year
period
(1999–2019)
Only
2
10
indices
had
statistically
meaningful
aspen,
these
were
8–28
times
weaker
extent
was
attributable
our
results
wolf–elk–aspen
trait‐mediated.
aligns
with
alternative
other
actively
hunting
predators
broad
habitat
domains
cause
dominate
whenever
prey,
such
as
elk,
also
domain.
For
at
least
type
predator–prey
community,
study
suggests
risk‐induced
responses
be
abstracted
ignored
while
still
achieving
accurate
understanding
cascades.
Language: Английский