Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations DOI Creative Commons
Travis McDevitt‐Galles, Arthur T. DeGaetano, Sarah C. Elmendorf

et al.

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate‐induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans wildlife. The timing intensity interactions with infected susceptible hosts are a primary determinant vector‐borne disease dynamics. Like most ectotherms, rates development corresponding phenological patterns expected to change under shifting climates. However, developing accurate forecasts climate that can be used inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance available data. As will variable effects on demography across species it is vital we identify associated traits may explain observed variation. Here, review suite modeling approaches could applied generate activity evaluate strengths weaknesses different approaches. We describe four life history physiological constrain models demonstrate how this prior information harnessed develop more general understanding shift changing Combining trait‐based approach appropriate techniques allow actionable, flexible, multi‐scale dynamics diverse stakeholders.

Language: Английский

A Multi‐Model Ensemble of Baseline and Process‐Based Models Improves the Predictive Skill of Near‐Term Lake Forecasts DOI Creative Commons
Freya Olsson, Tadhg N. Moore, Cayelan C. Carey

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract Water temperature forecasting in lakes and reservoirs is a valuable tool to manage crucial freshwater resources changing more variable climate, but previous efforts have yet identify an optimal modeling approach. Here, we demonstrate the first multi‐model ensemble (MME) reservoir water forecast, method that combines individual model strengths single framework. We developed two MMEs: three‐model process‐based MME five‐model includes empirical models forecast profiles at temperate drinking reservoir. found improved performance by 8%–30% relative MME, as quantified using aggregated probabilistic skill score. This increase was due large improvements bias despite increases uncertainty. High correlation among resulted little improvement models. The utility of MMEs highlighted results: (a) no performed best every depth horizon (days future), (b) avoided poor performances rarely producing worst for any forecasted period (<6% ranked forecasts over time). work presents example how existing can be combined improve discusses value utilizing MMEs, rather than models, operational forecasts.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Does polymixis complicate prediction of high‐frequency dissolved oxygen in lakes and reservoirs? DOI Creative Commons
Caleb J. Robbins, Jeffrey M. Sadler, Dennis Trolle

et al.

Limnology and Oceanography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Aug. 6, 2024

Abstract As lake and reservoir ecosystems transition across major environmental regimes (e.g., mixing regime) resulting from anthropogenic change, setting predictive expectations is imperative. We tested the hypothesis that (dissolved) oxygen more predictable in monomictic reservoirs thermally stratify throughout summer (warm) season compared to polymictic intermittently. Using two‐hourly vertical profiles of oxygen, we daily‐aggregated errors predictions random forests within two south‐central (subtropical) USA. Although one was typically than reservoirs, hypereutrophic, small had less patterns potentially related rapid cycling intrusions oxygenated waters hypolimnion without mixing. Daily did not relate strongly model errors. Water temperature, depth, wind were most important predictors, but clearly or Lastly, multiple types (regression, neural network, process‐based) test how our interpretations predictability sensitive type, finding models generally agreed; however, process‐based poorly predicted middle (5 m) where performed due a temporally unstable, vacillating metalimnion. Our results suggest predicting dynamics may be easier stratified eutrophication complex hydrodynamics cause forecasting surprises especially for those who use manage water resources mono‐ dimictic reservoirs.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
A framework for developing a real-time lake phytoplankton forecasting system to support water quality management in the face of global change DOI Creative Commons
Cayelan C. Carey, Ryan S. D. Calder, Renato Figueiredo

et al.

AMBIO, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 20, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Near-Term Lake Water Temperature Forecasts Can Be Used to Anticipate the Ecological Dynamics of Freshwater Species DOI

Ricardo Paíz,

R. Quinn Thomas, Cayelan C. Carey

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Partly cloudy with a chance of mosquitoes: Developing a flexible approach to forecasting mosquito populations DOI Creative Commons
Travis McDevitt‐Galles, Arthur T. DeGaetano, Sarah C. Elmendorf

et al.

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract Climate‐induced shifts in mosquito phenology and population structure have important implications for the health of humans wildlife. The timing intensity interactions with infected susceptible hosts are a primary determinant vector‐borne disease dynamics. Like most ectotherms, rates development corresponding phenological patterns expected to change under shifting climates. However, developing accurate forecasts climate that can be used inform management programs remains challenging despite an abundance available data. As will variable effects on demography across species it is vital we identify associated traits may explain observed variation. Here, review suite modeling approaches could applied generate activity evaluate strengths weaknesses different approaches. We describe four life history physiological constrain models demonstrate how this prior information harnessed develop more general understanding shift changing Combining trait‐based approach appropriate techniques allow actionable, flexible, multi‐scale dynamics diverse stakeholders.

Language: Английский

Citations

0