Predicting the Potential Distribution of Rare and Endangered Emmenopterys henryi in China Under Climate Change DOI Creative Commons

Hanwei Cai,

Guangfu Zhang

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Climate change has a pivotal impact on the potential distribution of endangered and relic tree species. Probably due to unrepresentative sampling single algorithm, at present, there are different views range Emmenopterys henryi, endemic China. Here, we first collated 612 occurrence records 22 environmental variables including climate, topography, soil. Combined Biomod2 with MaxEnt, then predicted its past, current, future suitable area in China, determined key factors influencing distribution. The ensemble model results showed that main affecting this species were minimum temperature coldest month (BIO6), precipitation warmest quarter (BIO18), seasonality (BIO4). Its current was 176.53 × 10 4 km 2 , mainly concentrated eastern, central, southwestern Collectively, E. henryi would averagely decrease by 3.90% all 16 scenarios, centroid largely migrating northeastward. Our findings indicate covered 18 provinces having larger than known. Moreover, climate may have an adverse effect In addition, can produce more effective prediction outcomes MaxEnt for such large range. We recommend increasing sample representativeness analyzing completeness properties coverage, simultaneously selecting appropriate algorithms ensure reliability relict

Language: Английский

Predicting habitat suitability of Illicium griffithii under climate change scenarios using an ensemble modeling approach DOI Creative Commons
Anubhav Bhuyan,

Amal Bawri,

Bhrigu Prasad Saikia

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 20, 2025

Climate change is the most significant threat to global biodiversity, risking extinction for many species due their limited adaptability rapidly changing environmental conditions, such as temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Illicium griffithii, an endangered tree with ecological medicinal value, remains understudied, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh. The aim of study identify key variables influencing current distribution I. griffithii predict potential under future climatic scenarios (SSP245 SSP585). We used ensemble modeling approach that integrates five models (SDMs). After multicollinearity test, we utilized fifteen including bioclimatic variables, soil properties, topographical evapotranspiration griffithii. revealed predominantly influenced by isothermality, nitrogen content at 0–5 cm depth, clay seasonality a total contribution rate 42.6%. model performed robustly found be excellent performance based on AUC 0.94 TSS 0.83. highly suitable area spans 722.72 km2 scenario, primarily located West Kameng, Tawang, East Kameng districts. stands out largest high-suitability area, which covers 592.83 contributing substantial 82.03% area. However, SSP585 scenario (2041–2060), projections reveal concerning decline areas. expected shrink over 5.05%, decreasing from 686.25 km2. results have highlighted vulnerability scenario. Hence, forest managers should prioritize conserving habitats districts Pradesh implementing habitat restoration, assisted migration ex situ conservation strategies can mitigate impacts.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Population Structure and Dynamic Characteristics of Taxus cuspidata in Baishilazi National Nature Reserve, China DOI Creative Commons
B. H. Chang, Shuai Yu, Wei Chen

et al.

Global Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. e03263 - e03263

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Predicting the Potential Distribution of Rare and Endangered Emmenopterys henryi in China Under Climate Change DOI Creative Commons

Hanwei Cai,

Guangfu Zhang

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

ABSTRACT Climate change has a pivotal impact on the potential distribution of endangered and relic tree species. Probably due to unrepresentative sampling single algorithm, at present, there are different views range Emmenopterys henryi, endemic China. Here, we first collated 612 occurrence records 22 environmental variables including climate, topography, soil. Combined Biomod2 with MaxEnt, then predicted its past, current, future suitable area in China, determined key factors influencing distribution. The ensemble model results showed that main affecting this species were minimum temperature coldest month (BIO6), precipitation warmest quarter (BIO18), seasonality (BIO4). Its current was 176.53 × 10 4 km 2 , mainly concentrated eastern, central, southwestern Collectively, E. henryi would averagely decrease by 3.90% all 16 scenarios, centroid largely migrating northeastward. Our findings indicate covered 18 provinces having larger than known. Moreover, climate may have an adverse effect In addition, can produce more effective prediction outcomes MaxEnt for such large range. We recommend increasing sample representativeness analyzing completeness properties coverage, simultaneously selecting appropriate algorithms ensure reliability relict

Language: Английский

Citations

0