Assessing the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia during 2022-2023: A focus on Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea DOI Creative Commons
Minjin Kim, Eunha Shim

International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 138, P. 110 - 112

Published: Nov. 25, 2023

ObjectivesThis study aims to estimate the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia, focusing on hardest hit nations: Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea.MethodsWe utilized six phenomenological dynamic growth models fit case incidence during initial 30 epidemic days. The best-fit model was selected calculate reproduction number (Rt). Additionally, we used latest data a Bayesian framework compute instantaneous effective Rt by applying Cori et al. method.ResultsDuring early phase, China demonstrated highest estimated 2.89 (95% CI: 1.44-3.33); followed Korea, 2.18 0.96-3.57); 1.73 0.66-3.94); 1.36 0.71-3.30). However, June 30, 2023, dropped below 1.00 all countries: at 0.05 credible interval [CrI]: 0.02-0.10), Japan 0.32 CrI: 0.15-0.59), Korea 0.23 0.11-0.42), Taiwan 0.41 0.31-0.53), indicating decline outbreak.ConclusionsOur analysis shows containment each country. It is crucial sustain management ensure ultimate eradication outbreak.

Language: Английский

Monkeypox: a review of epidemiological modelling studies and how modelling has led to mechanistic insight DOI Creative Commons
Marina Banuet-Martínez, Yang Yang, Behnaz Jafari

et al.

Epidemiology and Infection, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 151

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Human monkeypox (mpox) virus is a viral zoonosis that belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus of Poxviridae family, which presents with similar symptoms as those seen in human smallpox patients. Mpox an increasing concern globally, over 80,000 cases non-endemic countries December 2022. In this review, we provide brief history and ecology mpox, its basic virology, key differences mpox fitness traits before after We summarize critique current knowledge from epidemiological mathematical models, within-host between-host transmission models using One Health approach, where distinguish between focus on immunity vaccination, geography, climatic variables, well animal models. report various parameters, such reproduction number,

Language: Английский

Citations

17
Transmission potential of mpox in mainland China, June-July 2023: estimating reproduction number during the initial phase of the epidemic DOI Creative Commons
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,

Pei‐Hsuan Wu

PeerJ, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12, P. e16908 - e16908

Published: Feb. 8, 2024

Despite reporting very few mpox cases in early 2023, mainland China observed a surge of over 500 during the summer. Amid ambiguous prevention strategies and stigma surrounding transmission, epidemic silently escalated. This study aims to quantify scale assess transmission dynamics virus by estimating effective reproduction number (

Language: Английский

Citations

4
A hybrid deep learning framework for early detection of Mpox using image data DOI Creative Commons

Sandipan Chakroborty

Healthcare Analytics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100396 - 100396

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
The need for pre-emptive control strategies for mpox in Asia and Oceania DOI Creative Commons
Gregory Gan,

A. Janhavi,

Tong Guan

et al.

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(1), P. 214 - 223

Published: Dec. 28, 2023

The transmission dynamics of the recent mpox outbreak highlights lack infrastructure available to rapidly respond novel STI outbreaks, which Asia and Oceania remains particularly susceptible. Here, we simulate outbreaks in this setting propose use pre-emptive vaccination within men who have sex with (MSM) community before arrival establishment virus. Using data driven heterogeneous sexual contact networks, simulated Singapore, Hong Kong, Sydney. An individual based SEIR compartmental model was used epidemic trajectories impact different uptakes assessed their ability avert or suppress upon MSM populations. highly dense networks Singapore Sydney experience rapid infection peaks occurring at day 41 23 respectively, compared Kong occurs 77. Across simulations no vaccination, 68.2%–89.7% will become infected across cities, over a simulation period 1 year. By implementing strategies, rate cities can be reduced as low 3.1% population (range: 3.1%–82.2%) depending on implementation uptake vaccine. Vaccination is also extremely effective slowing start epidemic, delaying peak by 36–50 days even preventing mpox. With well-connected where 65.2%–83.2% are connected super-spreader immediate identification first case strongly recommended help better manage prevent potential straining healthcare systems.

Language: Английский

Citations

9
Mpox and healthcare workers — a minireview of our present knowledge DOI Creative Commons
AbdulRahman A. Saied, Deepak Chandran, Sandip Chakraborty

et al.

The Egyptian Journal of Internal Medicine, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 35(1)

Published: June 26, 2023

Abstract Introduction Workers in the healthcare industry form backbone of health systems everywhere. In face global crises like current monkeypox (mpox) outbreak, workers doctors, dentists, pharmacists, nurses, midwives, paramedics, administrators, support staff, laboratory technicians, and community all play crucial roles providing care containing spread disease. Aim Therefore, wake concerns about mpox recurrence, we seek to shed light on occupational transmission infection possible risk personnel. Results Contamination environment household cases patient units with viral DNA has been reported besides asymptomatic detection air samples; therefore, more research non-lesion-based testing for human screening people, particularly among populations at high infection, event potential via aerosols is necessary. Monitoring efforts can be aided by incorporating into locations where people are likely contract illnesses medical attention. We must take a precautionary control approach virus while completing urgent understand better human-to-human process. Conclusions this minireview, discuss routes preventative strategies measures that should taken considered. Graphical

Language: Английский

Citations

8
A tale of two countries: Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis of monkeypox disease in Germany and Nigeria DOI Creative Commons
Samuel Tosin Akinyemi,

Isaiah Oke Idisi,

Musa Rabiu

et al.

Healthcare Analytics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4, P. 100258 - 100258

Published: Sept. 20, 2023

The Monkeypox (Mpox) virus started developing as potentially fatal in Spring 2022. Mpox is a zoonotic disease that can spread between animals and people. While the cases Nigeria are on rise, Germany has become one of Europe's most impacted nations. Mathematical modeling useful for monitoring, managing, predicting infectious epidemics. This study incorporates transmission rate human-to-animal animal-to-animal compartmental mathematical model to capture current trend wildlife human preservation. Parameters were estimated while was fitted reported case data from Europe West Africa. Analyses such optimal control, sensitivity, cost-effectiveness carried out. results show best strategy combat through changing behavior personal hygiene among humans.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Simulating the impact of optimized prevention and control measures on the transmission of monkeypox in the United States: A model‐based study DOI

Yawen Cao,

Wenbin Fang, Yingying Chen

et al.

Journal of Medical Virology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 96(2)

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

This study aimed to develop a modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model evaluate monkeypox epidemics in the United States and explore more optimized prevention control measures. To further assess impact of public health measures on transmission monkeypox, different intervention scenarios were developed based classic SEIR model, considering reducing contact, enhancing vaccination, diagnosis delay, environmental risk, respectively. We evaluated by simulating their spread scenarios. During simulation period, 8709 people infected with monkeypox. The analysis showed that: (1) most effective during early stage epidemic contact cumulative infections at 51.20% 41.90% baseline levels, respectively; (2) shortening time would delay peak 96 days; (3) risk virus was relatively low. indirectly proved effectiveness measures, such as time, low transmission, which also provided an important reference containment experience for nonepidemic countries.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Genomic characterization of the first mpox and varicella‐zoster co‐infection in Pakistan (2023) through next‐generation sequencing DOI Open Access
Massab Umair, Zunera Jamal, Syed Adnan Haider

et al.

Journal of Medical Virology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 95(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Abstract The global mpox outbreak spanning 2022–2023 has affected numerous countries worldwide. In this study, we present the first report on detection, whole‐genome sequence, and coinfection of virus varicella zoster (VZV) from Pakistan. During April–May 2023, samples 20 suspected cases were tested at National Institutes Health, Islamabad among which 4 positive. All four had a travel history Saudi Arabia. processed by using Zymo research kit for DNA extraction, followed qRT‐PCR amplification DaAn Gene detection virus. Further, two positive with low C t value (<20) subjected to sequencing metagenomic approach iSeq (Illumina) platform. results revealed Clade IIb genotype A.2.1 MPXV, clustered viruses Slovenia UK in July June 2022, respectively. Our analysis identified novel nonsynonymous substitutions virus, namely V98I OPG046 P600S OPG109. Furthermore, successfully retrieved complete genome VZV same sample, belonging 5. This study represents case MPXV Pakistan metagenome providing insights into their genomes. highlight importance surveillance point entries, strengthening lab capacities including next‐generation sequencing, differential diagnosis timely accurate cases.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Transmission potential of mpox in Mainland China, June-July 2023: estimating reproduction number during the initial phase of the epidemic DOI Creative Commons
Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov,

Pei‐Hsuan Wu

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 25, 2023

Abstract Despite reporting very few mpox cases in early 2023, Mainland China observed a surge of over 500 during the summer. Amid ambiguous prevention strategies and stigma surrounding transmission, epidemic silently escalated. This study aims to quantify scale assess transmission dynamics virus by estimating effective reproduction number ( R e ) its phase. Publicly available data were aggregated obtain daily incidences China, was estimated using an exponential growth model. The mean value found be 1.76 (95% credible interval: 1.51–2.06), suggesting case doubling time approximately 2 weeks. estimate compared with values from 16 other countries’ national outbreaks 2022 that had cumulative exceeding 700 symptomatic end year. estimates for these ranged 1.17 Portugal 2.88 Colombia. pooled 1.66 1.40–1.92), which aligns closely China. These findings underscore need immediate control measures including targeted vaccination campaigns mitigate further spread impact epidemic.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Assessing the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia during 2022-2023: A focus on Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea DOI Creative Commons
Minjin Kim, Eunha Shim

International Journal of Infectious Diseases, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 138, P. 110 - 112

Published: Nov. 25, 2023

ObjectivesThis study aims to estimate the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia, focusing on hardest hit nations: Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea.MethodsWe utilized six phenomenological dynamic growth models fit case incidence during initial 30 epidemic days. The best-fit model was selected calculate reproduction number (Rt). Additionally, we used latest data a Bayesian framework compute instantaneous effective Rt by applying Cori et al. method.ResultsDuring early phase, China demonstrated highest estimated 2.89 (95% CI: 1.44-3.33); followed Korea, 2.18 0.96-3.57); 1.73 0.66-3.94); 1.36 0.71-3.30). However, June 30, 2023, dropped below 1.00 all countries: at 0.05 credible interval [CrI]: 0.02-0.10), Japan 0.32 CrI: 0.15-0.59), Korea 0.23 0.11-0.42), Taiwan 0.41 0.31-0.53), indicating decline outbreak.ConclusionsOur analysis shows containment each country. It is crucial sustain management ensure ultimate eradication outbreak.

Language: Английский

Citations

1