Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 155(8), P. 7703 - 7720
Published: July 5, 2024
Language: Английский
Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(10)
Published: Oct. 1, 2022
Abstract Every year, millions of people are at risk due to droughts in South Asia (SA). The likely impacts projected increase with global warming. This study uses the new ensemble mean 23 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections quantify future changes increasing drought risks associated socioeconomic exposure across SA its subregions under 1.5°C 2°C We used two shared pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5. most realization copula functions model joint distribution severity duration. Simultaneously, bivariate return period calculated a warming climate. frequency 50‐year historical (under framework) might double 80% land area Conversely, 12% landmasses may suffer extreme severe episode is expected (40%–75%) (60%–90%) relative recent largest R2 R4, then R1. Additionally, 75% (65%) could increased warmer climate, whereas additional 0.5°C will lead an unbearable regional situation. Limiting compared can significantly reduce influence SA. These findings help disaster‐risk managers adopt climate‐smart management strategies.
Language: Английский
Citations
43
Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(12)
Published: Dec. 1, 2023
Abstract Over the past few decades, South Asia (SA) has experienced an upsurge in frequency of severe monsoonal compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) occurrences. Climate models that identify land‐atmosphere coupling as a major contributing factor for this exacerbation anticipate increase intensity CDHW occurrences future also represent this. For first time, study investigated evolution events based on new generations CMIP6 population products by applying multivariate framework. Specifically, explored impacts natural climate variability event risks their bivariate return periods two time‐periods emission scenarios across SA its subregions. The odds were then examined using logistic regression model association with anthropogenic drivers was determined. results indicate CDHWs occurrence is anticipated to substantially during late twenty‐first century (2056–2090). 50‐year might two‐fold most mid‐21st under high scenario. We find co‐occurring dry warm conditions rapidly strengthens soil moisture temperature are further exacerbated land‐atmospheric feedback loops. Our findings show persistent spells contribute significantly events, emphasizing regional exposure changing climates.
Language: Английский
Citations
27
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 153(1-2), P. 397 - 415
Published: May 17, 2023
Language: Английский
Citations
23
Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)
Published: May 20, 2024
Abstract Flash droughts are abrupt and rapid intensification of that affect agriculture, water, ecosystems commonplace in South Asia. Despite their potential impact, flash drought evolution characteristics underlying mechanisms Asia remain underexplored. We use a multivariate approach to analyze the onset speed, frequency, severity, duration, return period droughts, role atmospheric circulation human-induced climate change. find more common intense crop season, especially central India, western Pakistan, eastern Afghanistan. They caused by persistent patterns block moisture transport Additionally, anthropogenic change has intensified spring-summer with median fraction attributable risk 60%, 80%, 90% for Afghanistan, respectively. Our results suggest will expand worsen future, requiring adaptation measures energy sectors.
Language: Английский
Citations
16
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156(3)
Published: Feb. 11, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(13), P. 3219 - 3219
Published: July 4, 2022
South Asia is home to one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia, and human activities are leaving indelible marks on land surface. Yet likelihood successive observed droughts (SA) its four subregions (R-1: semi-arid, R-2: arid, R-3: subtropical wet, R-4: tropical wet dry) remains poorly understood. Using state-of-the-art self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), we examined impact different natural ocean variability modes evolution, severity, magnitude across that have distinct precipitation seasonality cover key breadbaskets highly vulnerable populations. The study revealed dryness had significantly increased R-1, R-2, R-4 during 1981–2020. Temporal analysis an increase drought intensity for R-1 since 2000s, while a mixed behavior was R-2 R-3. Moreover, most sub-regions witnessed substantial upsurge annual precipitation, but significant decrease vapor pressure deficit (VPD) decline VPD partially contributed rise Normalized Difference Vegetation (NDVI) dryness. In contrast, strong positive correlation found between index NDVI R-4, whereas temperature exhibited negative over these regions. No obvious link detected with El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as explored certain regions SA. findings showed possibility changes insignificant relationship ENSO, IOD, onset. Thus, results highlight need considering interactions within longer climate system describing risks rather than aiming at drivers from individual perspective.
Language: Английский
Citations
29
Water, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(11), P. 1492 - 1492
Published: May 23, 2024
Water is a fundamental and crucial natural resource for human survival. However, the global demand water increasing, leading to subsequent decrease in availability. This study addresses critical need improved forecasting models amidst scarcity concerns exacerbated by climate change. uses best weather model sustainable development. Employing Recurrent Neural Network–Long Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM) approach, research enhances drought prediction capabilities integrating secondary data of rainfall, temperature, ground surface supplies. The primary objective forecast resources under changing climatic conditions, facilitating development early warning systems vulnerable regions. results from LSTM show an increased trend temperature rainfall patterns. relatively unstable observed. statistical analysis result was observed with model; model’s accuracy 99%, showing that it quite good at presenting obtained precipitation, data. Meanwhile, value root mean squared error (RMSE) about 13, 15, 20, respectively. Therefore, study’s highlight most suitable among artificial neural networks weather, resources. will help forecasting, agriculture, meteorological departments be effective forecasting.
Language: Английский
Citations
8
Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11
Published: May 11, 2023
In recent decades, water scarcity is a significant constraint for socioeconomic development and threatens livelihood in an agriculture-based developing country like Pakistan. The crisis the projected to exacerbate coming years, especially southern parts. This dire situation calls investigation of major droughts, associated scarcity, changes teleconnection patterns over Southern Moderate low Southeastern monsoon (SEM) precipitation triggered extreme drought episode (2017–2020) Pakistan intensified scarcity. study explored severity respective event, underlying mechanisms, To investigate future (1980–2050) coupling models (global hydrological (GHMs)-global climate (GCMs)) have been used achieve interannual performance availability total consumption. Besides, scenarios this are combinations SSPs RCPs, including middle-of-the-road (SSP1-RCP4.5) fossil-fueled (SSP2-RCP8.5). findings indicated deficit 45% during 4-year (2017–2020), depicting worst events past 50 years. South observed SEM droughts last as 2000–2005 was (precipitation 75%), followed by 2017–2020 with 49% deficit. Water exacerbated dry spells that developed most between 2017 2020 result moderate-to-exceptionally precipitation. Furthermore, accompanied cool phase Pacific equatorial Indian Oceans. regions present sharp increase under SSP2-RCP8.5 scenario anticipated be already stressed regions. research essential environmentalists, resources managers, provided crucial information identify hot spot areas target region so problems could reduced future.
Language: Английский
Citations
15
Plants, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(3), P. 399 - 399
Published: Jan. 29, 2024
Droughts have become more severe and frequent due to global warming. In this context, it is widely accepted that for drought assessments, both water supply (rainfall) demand (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI) should be considered. Using SPEI, we explored the spatial-temporal patterns of dry wet annual seasonal changes in five sub-regions East Asia during 1902-2018. These factors are linked excess frequency severity on regional scale, their effect vegetation remains an important topic climate change studies. Our results show SPEI significantly improved extreme mostly affected SPEI-06 SPEI-12 growing seasons 1981-2018. The trends affect Asia. had two extremely spells 1936-1947 1978-2018. Japan, South Korea, North Korea summer compared other regions Asia, with occurring at 51.4%, respectively. mean frequencies China Mongolia 57.4% 54.6%. driest high duration. spatial analysis solar radiation (SR), vapor pressure (WVP), wind speed (WS), condition index (VCI), temperature (TCI), health (VHI) confirmed region suffered from maximum events. variation shows no clear drying autumn seasons. During winter spring seasons, there was a trend region. 1902-1990, presented diverse characteristics, Mongolia, four different Korea. 1991-2018, while showed spring, autumn, This ecological climatic mechanism provides good basis assessment drought-change variations within An understandings long-term effects rainfall droughts varying essential resource management adaptation. Based results, resources will increase under warming, which may alleviate scarcity issue
Language: Английский
Citations
6
CATENA, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 241, P. 108062 - 108062
Published: April 30, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
6