Comparing Integrated Heat Stress Indicators With Raw Meteorological Variables in Predicting Heat Stroke‐Related Ambulance Transportations in Japan

GeoHealth, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 9(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract The increasing threat of heat stress poses significant risks to human health globally. To quantify exposure more effectively, integrated indicators (HSIs) have been developed simplify the classification severity and assist in public warnings. However, their ability accurately predict daily stroke cases has not fully assessed. In this study, we evaluated performance multiple HSIs forecasting number stroke‐related emergency ambulance dispatches (HT‐EADs) across 47 prefectures Japan compared accuracy models using raw meteorological variables. Our results indicate that, while process assessing stress, they generally show lower performances than based on data. Among eight tested, Wet Bulb Globe Temperature ( T WBG ) showed strongest predictive power, with median R 2 values 0.77 0.70 for calibration validation periods, respectively. incorporating air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation outperformed , achieving 0.85 0.74. We also observed spatial variability HSI performance, particularly cooler regions like Hokkaido, where provided no improvement over temperature alone. Given these findings, recommend that be rigorously local data before being used warning systems specific locations. For predictions requiring high accuracy, variables could prioritized ensure greater precision.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the escalating human-perceived heatwaves in a warming world: The case of China

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 43, P. 100643 - 100643

Published: Jan. 11, 2024

With increased global warming, heatwaves are expected to become more intense, frequent, and persistent. Although the spatiotemporal characteristics of have been extensively studied, vast majority these studies solely used near-surface air temperatures, particularly daily maximum temperatures (Tmax), identify heatwaves. Given that temperature alone proves inadequate as a metric for human heat stress. Here, using relative threshold in conjunction with absolute basing it on wet bulb globe (WBGT), we develop novel definition human-perceived The combined effect humidity is considered this definition. On basis, quantify climatology long-term changes China based homogenized situ observations outputs from climate models participating Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). results show distribution coincides densely populated areas southeastern part China, despite their limited spatial extent. observed trends accelerated since 1960s. It now anticipated moderate or worse will affect than half China's population. Moreover, CMIP6 projections suggest percentage population exposed historically unprecedented would increase rapidly warmer future, except sustainability scenario. noted severe rapid traditional Tmax-based heatwaves, suggesting hazard humans may underestimated by previous studies. Our findings demonstrate urgent need additional planning adaptation actions beyond framework short-term disaster reduction frameworks currently place. concentrated article, our method evaluating easily extended handle comparable issues everywhere.

Language: Английский

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Expert judgement reveals current and emerging UK climate-mortality burden

The Lancet Planetary Health, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(9), P. e684 - e694

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Effect modification of air pollution on the association between heat and mortality in five European countries

Environmental Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 263, P. 120023 - 120023

Published: Sept. 16, 2024

Language: Английский

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The heat-mortality association in Jordan: Effect modification by greenness, population density and urbanization level

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 952, P. 176010 - 176010

Published: Sept. 3, 2024

Language: Английский

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Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Oct. 14, 2024

The field of extreme event attribution (EEA) has rapidly developed over the last two decades. Various methods have been and implemented, physical modelling capabilities generally improved, impact emerged, assessments serve as a popular communication tool for conveying how climate change is influencing weather events in lived experience. However, number non-trivial challenges still remain that must be addressed by community to secure further advancement whilst ensuring scientific rigour appropriate use findings stakeholders associated applications. As part concept series commissioned World Climate Research Programme, this article discusses contemporary developments six key domains relevant EEA, provides recommendations where focus EEA should concentrated coming decade. These are: (1) observations context EEA; (2) definitions; (3) statistical methods; (4) (5) attribution; (6) communication. Broadly, call increased capacity building, particularly more vulnerable regions; guidelines assessing suitability models; establishing best-practice methodologies on compound record-shattering extremes; co-ordinated interdisciplinary engagement develop scaffolding their broader applications; ongoing investment To address these requires significant multiple fields either underpin (e.g., monitoring; modelling) or are closely related events; impacts) well working consistently with experts outside science generally. if approached investment, dedication, coordination, tackling next decade will ensure robust analysis, tangible benefits global community.

Language: Английский

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Compound hot-humid extreme events and their mortality associations during summer and shoulder months in a subtropical coastal city

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 106031 - 106031

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Projected risk and vulnerability to heat waves for Montreal, Quebec, using Gaussian processes

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 105907 - 105907

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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A thermo-physiologically consistent approach for studying the heat-health nexus with hierarchical generalized additive modelling: Application in Athens urban area (Greece)

Urban Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 58, P. 102206 - 102206

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Effect Modification of Air Pollution on the Association between Heat and Mortality in Five European Countries

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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