Evaluating the Accuracy of the ERA5 Model in Predicting Wind Speeds Across Coastal and Offshore Regions

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(1), P. 149 - 149

Published: Jan. 16, 2025

Accurate wind speed and direction data are vital for coastal engineering, renewable energy, climate resilience, particularly in regions with sparse observational datasets. This study evaluates the ERA5 reanalysis model’s performance predicting speeds directions at ten offshore stations Kuwait from 2010 to 2017. analysis reveals that effectively captures general patterns, demonstrating stronger correlations (up 0.85) higher Perkins Skill Score (PSS) values 0.94). However, model consistently underestimates variability extreme events, especially stations, where correlation coefficients dropped 0.35. Wind highlighted ERA5’s ability replicate dominant northwest patterns. it notable biases underrepresented during transitional seasons. Taylor diagrams error metrics further emphasize challenges capturing localized dynamics influenced by land-sea interactions. Enhancements such as calibration using high-resolution datasets, hybrid models incorporating machine learning techniques, long-term monitoring networks recommended improve accuracy. By addressing these limitations, can more support engineering applications, including infrastructure design energy development, while advancing Kuwait’s sustainable development goals. provides valuable insights into refining complex environments.

Language: Английский

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Classification of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones using multiple measures of intensity

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1), P. 207 - 229

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

Abstract. The question of how to quantify the intensity extratropical cyclones (ETCs) does not have a simple answer. To offer some perspective on this issue, we analyse multiple measures for North Atlantic and European ETCs extended winter season between 1979 2022 using ERA5 reanalysis data. most relevant are identified by investigating relationships them performing sparse principal component analysis set measures. We show that dynamical correlate strongly with each other, while correlations weaker impact-relevant Based analysis, find five measures, namely 850 hPa relative vorticity, wind speed, footprint, precipitation, storm severity index, describe ETC comprehensively non-redundantly. Using these as input, objectively classify cluster based Gaussian mixture model. is able produce four clusters which differ in terms their intensity, life cycle characteristics such deepening rate lifetime, geographical location. A fourth all belong weakest occur mostly over Europe Mediterranean area. Nearly half average-intensity at northeastern parts main track. fifth second intense start Finally, less than 10th almost equally everywhere. This last includes clear majority investigated impactful storms (17 out 21), demonstrates ability method identify potentially damaging ETCs.

Language: Английский

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Quality Assessment of ERA5 Wind Speed and Its Impact on Atmosphere Environment Using Radar Profiles along the Bohai Bay Coastline

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(10), P. 1153 - 1153

Published: Sept. 26, 2024

The accuracy of ERA5 reanalysis datasets and their applicability in the coastal area Bohai Bay are crucial for weather forecasting environmental protection research. However, synthesis evaluation this region remains lacking. In study, using a tropospheric wind profile radar (CFL-06L) placed Huanghua city, deviations data assessed from ground to an altitude 5 km. results indicate that speed exhibits good consistency surface level about km, with R2 values ranging 0.5 0.85. lowest mean error, less than 3 m/s, occurs middle layer, while larger errors observed at upper layers. Specifically, 150 m, is as low 0.5, numerous outliers around 5000 m. Seasonal analysis shows field performs best summer worst autumn winter, especially lower levels affected by circulation systems, high stratus clouds, aerosols, reaching up 10 m/s. Further extreme events, such heavy rain; hot, dry winds; snowstorms, reveals effects sea-land winds strong convective systems significantly impact observation profiles assimilation data, particularly under constrain boundary layer height. Additionally, we also find transition breeze capable triggering nighttime low-level jet, thereby downward transporting aloft ozone resulting abnormal increase concentration. study provides scientific basis improving meteorological forecasting, optimizing energy resource utilization, formulating policies, highlighting its significant practical application value.

Language: Английский

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Indonesian Throughflow Water and Its Circulation in the Maluku Sea: An Evaluation Using the CROCO Model

Regional Studies in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104047 - 104047

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Compound Precipitation and Wind Extremes in the Eastern Part of the Baltic Sea Region

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(3), P. 276 - 276

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

Compound wind and precipitation extremes (CPWEs) pose significant threats to infrastructure, economies, the environment, human lives. In this study, recurrence, spatial distribution, intensity, synoptic conditions leading formation of CPWEs were assessed in eastern part Baltic Sea region. Using ERA5 reanalysis data, identified when both daily maximum speed exceeded 98th percentile thresholds on same day at grid cell. Due proximity influence terrain, most frequent windward slopes highlands western investigation area. The severe occurred second half summer early September. Based data from Hess–Brezowsky classification catalogue various datasets, during cold season (October–March) is associated with intense zonal (westerly) flow, while warm (April–September), it linked activity southern-type cyclones. number increased across all seasons, largest changes observed summer. However, majority are insignificant according Mann–Kendall test.

Language: Английский

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What Are the Limits to the Growth of Boreal Fires?

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 31(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Boreal forest regions, including East Siberia, have experienced elevated fire activity in recent years, leading to record‐breaking greenhouse gas emissions and severe air pollution. However, our understanding of the factors that eventually halt spread thus limit growth remains incomplete, hindering ability model their dynamics predict impacts. We investigated locations timing 2.2 million stops—defined as 300 m unburned pixels along perimeters—across vast Siberian taiga. Fire stops were retrieved from remote sensing data covering over 27,000 individual fires collectively burned 80 Mha between 2012 2022. Several geospatial datasets, hourly weather landscape variables, used identify contributing stops. Our analysis attributed 87% all a statistically significant ( p < 0.01) change one or more these drivers, with fire‐weather drivers limiting time constraining it across space. found clear regional temporal variations importance drivers. For instance, drivers—such less flammable land cover presence roads—were key constraints on southeastern where is populated fragmented. In contrast, was primary constraint northern Additionally, central Yakutia, major hotspot fuel limitations previous increasingly restricted spread. The methodology we present adaptable other biomes can be applied globally, providing framework for future attribution studies global limitations. northeast increasing droughts heatwaves, could potentially grow even larger future, implications carbon cycle climate.

Language: Английский

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Characteristics of Precipitation and Wind Extremes Induced by Extratropical Cyclones in Northeastern North America

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(6)

Published: March 20, 2025

Abstract This study investigates important characteristics of extreme (above the 99th local percentile) near‐surface wind speed and precipitation hourly events associated with extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over North America, using 20‐year ERA5 reanalysis IMERG satellite‐based data. For seasonal geographical occurrence frequency, extremes prevail in winter ocean autumn land, while show relatively weak variation primarily occur summer land. both variables, 60% are ETCs northeastern America (NNA) regardless season. When one type is observed, probability that it a compound wind‐precipitation reaches up to 40% along coasts ocean, about 20% NNA region. About 90% (which most frequently fall) ETCs. Significant discrepancies exist between magnitudes IMERG; however, datasets consistently identify as primary drivers mid‐to‐high latitudes. Extratropical tend have longer‐lasting (∼6 hr ERA5) compared (∼3 ∼2 IMERG). Rarer stronger based on higher threshold more likely be ETCs, exhibiting shorter duration timescales.

Language: Английский

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Determination of Dust Storm Height using Weak Beam Photons from ICESat-2 and Relating with Vertical Wind Profile

Atmospheric Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 354, P. 121276 - 121276

Published: May 3, 2025

Language: Английский

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Classifying extratropical cyclones and their impact on Finland's electricity grid: insights from 92 damaging windstorms

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(5), P. 1697 - 1717

Published: May 13, 2025

Abstract. This study investigates the impacts of extratropical cyclones on Finland's electricity grids, focusing 92 significant windstorms from 2005 to 2018. We present a classification method for based arrival location and direction. Rather than using meteorological criteria identify windstorms, we select them their impacts, namely number power outages, reach more targeted understanding windstorm compared traditional approaches. Key findings indicate that south-west-originating cause most damage in total, while north-westerly individually lead highest average outages. The largest occur when moves across northern part country, north-west east, with strongest wind gusts concentrated southern side low-pressure centre, highly populated regions. Of characteristics relevant grid besides gust speed are extent spatial distribution gusts. seasonal analysis shows frequent damaging autumn winter, but even weaker speeds during summer can damage. Factors such as soil frost influence severity damage, highlighting importance expanding research include environmental geographical aspects.

Language: Английский

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Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic

Weather and Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(2), P. 821 - 837

Published: June 14, 2024

Abstract. This study investigates the role of large-scale atmospheric processes in development cyclones causing extreme surface winds over central North Atlantic basin (30 to 60° N, 10 50° W), focusing on extended winter period (October–March) from 1950 until 2020 ERA5 reanalysis product. Extreme wind events are identified as footprints spatio-temporally contiguous m exceedances local 98th percentile. Cyclones that cause top 1 % most intense identified. After excluding 16 (14 %) originated tropical cyclones, further analysis is done remaining 99 extratropical (“top extremes”). These compared a set yielding with marginally above percentile (“moderate leading extremes are, their time cyclogenesis, characterised by presence pre-existing downstream strong polar jet, and positive upper-level potential vorticity anomalies north. All these features absent or much weaker case moderate extremes, implying they play key explosive generation spatially footprints. There also an indication cyclonic Rossby wave breaking preceding extremes. Furthermore, pressure tendency equation cyclones' evolution reveals that, although contributions decrease vary cyclone cyclone, have average larger diabatic contribution than

Language: Английский

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