Does Applying Subsampling in Quantile Mapping Affect the Climate Change Signal? DOI Creative Commons
Philipp Reiter, Markus Casper

Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(9), P. 143 - 143

Published: Sept. 9, 2024

Bias in regional climate model (RCM) data makes bias correction (BC) a necessary pre-processing step change impact studies. Among variety of different BC methods, quantile mapping (QM) is popular and powerful method. Studies have shown that QM may be vulnerable to reductions calibration sample size. The question whether this also affects the signal (CCS) RCM data. We applied four methods without subsampling with three timescales an ensemble seven projections. generally improved relative observations. However, CCS was significantly modified by for certain combinations method timescale. In conclusion, improves are fundamental studies, but optimal timescale strongly depends on chosen

Language: Английский

Novel climate analysis methods applied to the Australian ESCI projections data DOI Creative Commons
Andrew Dowdy, Andrew D. King

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

This study examines several methods and new ideas for climate analysis, including expanded ensembles, that combine model projections from different greenhouse gas emissions pathways time periods. These are tested on Australian data previously made available based outputs the Energy Sector Climate Information (ESCI) project included all dynamical downscaling approaches with bias correction designed attention to detail extremes. The ensemble method provides larger sample sizes help enhance confidence, results showing projected changes per degree of global warming have relatively small differences when calculated using two emission periods, smaller than variations between individual models in ensemble. Results include maps mean values extremes temperature rainfall metrics, as well compound events associated dangerous bushfire weather conditions, providing insights change Australia. also show extremely fire conditions such those Black Summer 2019/2020 Saturday February 2009 currently still very rare, but has already increased chance their occurrence, increases future higher amounts emissions. New analysis is presented rainfall-based metrics agriculture biogeography Goyder’s Line, discussed relation use analogues adaptation decision making.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Relationship between daily precipitation extremes and temperature in changing climate across smart cities of Central India DOI
Vijay Jain, Sachidanand Kumar,

Manish Kumar Goyal

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 380, P. 125036 - 125036

Published: March 23, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Daily reference evapotranspiration prediction in Iran: A machine learning approach with ERA5-land data DOI
Ali Asghar Zolfaghari,

Maryam Raeesi,

Giuseppe Longo-Minnolo

et al.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 59, P. 102343 - 102343

Published: March 30, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
How the choice of model calibration procedure affects projections of lake surface water temperatures for future climatic conditions DOI
Jarosław J. Napiórkowski,

A. Piotrowski,

Marzena Osuch

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 133236 - 133236

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Premium Climate Services for Mining Company, How Good is It? DOI Open Access

Supari Supari,

Alexander Eggy Christian Pandiangan,

Ahmad Baiquni

et al.

IOP Conference Series Earth and Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 1472(1), P. 012001 - 012001

Published: April 1, 2025

Abstract In recent years, the BMKG (Indonesian Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency) has provided premium climate services to PT Berau Coal, including 10-day monthly rainfall forecasts. These are crucial for mining operations in preparing work plans, as can make roads at site slippery, leading reduced effective working hours, increased pump operating higher fuel costs. This study evaluates performance of predictions three sites (Sambarata, Lati, Binungan) over period 2005-2023, based on availability observation data sites, using RMSE Percent Correct (PoC) methods. The analysis shows that a lead time one (six) month, i.e., forecast given month advance, average is 94 (95) mm/month. highest error observed January, 140 (144) mm/month, while lowest occurs August, 65 (69) PoC values range from 42% 89%. results indicate service forecasts have reasonably good accuracy be used reference decision-making, although potential errors, indicated by values, should still considered.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Flood projections over the White Volta Basin under the shared socioeconomic pathways: an analytical hierarchical approach DOI Creative Commons
Amos T. Kabo-Bah,

Nana Asirifi Cobbina,

Ebenezer K. Siabi

et al.

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 7

Published: April 30, 2025

Introduction Flooding in Ghana’s White Volta Basin poses significant environmental and socioeconomic challenges, driven by both natural anthropogenic factors. This study assesses future flood vulnerabilities under climate change scenarios to inform disaster risk reduction sustainable land-use planning. Methods Precipitation data from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) were bias-corrected using CMhyd software, validated against observational (1960–2015) ERA5 reanalysis (1981–2020). Flood susceptibility maps generated via the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), integrating ten geospatial parameters (elevation, slope, drainage density, soil type, etc.). Model performance was evaluated R² (90–100%), NSE (0.384–1), RMSE (789–10,967 mm), PBIAS (−7.2% 26%). Results Projections indicate a decline precipitation across all SSPs, with sharpest SSP5-8.5. Tamale is expected receive highest rainfall, while Garu experiences lowest. mapping classified basin into five zones: very high (12.09%), (22.56%), moderate (24.38%), low (24.36%), (16.64%). Future show reductions high-risk areas, particularly SSP5-8.5 (−12.21% high, −3.12% high). validation achieved an AUC of 0.795, confirming robust predictive accuracy. Discussion The findings highlight critical impact declining on susceptibility, emphasizing need for adaptive strategies water resource management infrastructure integration AHP-GIS provides scalable framework assessment, aligning National Change Adaptation Strategy Sendai Framework.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
LSTM and Transformer-based framework for bias correction of ERA5 hourly wind speeds DOI Creative Commons
Freddy Houndekindo, Taha B. M. J. Ouarda

Energy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 136498 - 136498

Published: May 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Two sets of bias-corrected regional UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) of temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for Great Britain DOI Creative Commons
Nele Reyniers, Qianyu Zha, Nans Addor

et al.

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(5), P. 2113 - 2133

Published: May 20, 2025

Abstract. The United Kingdom Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) regional climate model (RCM) 12 km perturbed physics ensemble (UKCP18-RCM-PPE) is one of the three strands latest set UK national projections produced by Met Office. It has been widely adopted in impact assessment. In this study, we report biases raw UKCP18-RCM simulations that are significant and likely to deteriorate assessments if they not adjusted. Two methods were used bias-correct UKCP18-RCM: non-parametric quantile mapping using empirical quantiles a variant developed for third phase Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) designed preserve change signal. Specifically, daily temperature precipitation 1981 2080 adjusted members. Potential evapotranspiration was also estimated over same period Penman–Monteith formulation then bias-corrected latter method. Both successfully corrected range temperature, precipitation, potential metrics reduced multi-day lesser degree. An exploratory analysis projected future changes confirms expectation wetter, warmer winters hotter, drier summers shows uneven different parts distributions both precipitation. bias-correction preserved signal almost equally well, as well spread among changes. factor method benchmark show it fails capture variables, making inadequate most assessments. By comparing differences between two within members, uncertainty stemming from parameterization far outweighs introduced selecting these methods. We conclude providing guidance on use datasets. datasets bias-adjusted with ISIMIP3BA publicly available following repositories: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6337381 (Reyniers et al., 2022a) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6320707 2022b). datasets, method, at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8223024 (Zha 2023).

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia DOI Creative Commons
Sarah Chapman, Jozef Syktus, Ralph Trancoso

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100733 - 100733

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Does Applying Subsampling in Quantile Mapping Affect the Climate Change Signal? DOI Creative Commons
Philipp Reiter, Markus Casper

Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(9), P. 143 - 143

Published: Sept. 9, 2024

Bias in regional climate model (RCM) data makes bias correction (BC) a necessary pre-processing step change impact studies. Among variety of different BC methods, quantile mapping (QM) is popular and powerful method. Studies have shown that QM may be vulnerable to reductions calibration sample size. The question whether this also affects the signal (CCS) RCM data. We applied four methods without subsampling with three timescales an ensemble seven projections. generally improved relative observations. However, CCS was significantly modified by for certain combinations method timescale. In conclusion, improves are fundamental studies, but optimal timescale strongly depends on chosen

Language: Английский

Citations

0