Novel stochastic descriptors of a Markovian SIRD model for the assessment of the severity behind epidemic outbreaks
Journal of the Franklin Institute,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
361(12), P. 107022 - 107022
Published: June 13, 2024
Language: Английский
Commentary on “Stochastic modeling of computer virus spreading with warning signals”
Journal of the Franklin Institute,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
361(9), P. 106916 - 106916
Published: May 10, 2024
Language: Английский
Poisson random measure noise-induced coherence in epidemiological priors informed deep neural networks to identify the intensity of virus dynamics
Scientific Reports,
Journal Year:
2025,
Volume and Issue:
15(1)
Published: May 17, 2025
Differential
equations-based
epidemiological
compartmental
systems
and
deep
neural
networks-based
artificial
intelligence
can
effectively
analyze
combat
monkeypox
(MPV)
transmission
with
Poisson
random
measure
noise
into
a
stochastic
SEIQR
(susceptible,
exposed,
infected,
quarantined,
recovered)
model
human
population
SEI
infected)
for
rodent
population.
Compartmental
models
have
estimates
of
parameter
complications,
whereas
machine
learning
algorithms
struggle
to
understand
MPV's
progression
lack
elucidation.
This
research
introduces
Levenberg
Marquardt
backpropagation
networks
(LMBNNS)
in
training,
new
approach
that
combines
frameworks
(ANNs)
explain
the
complex
mechanisms
MPV.
Meanwhile,
description
proves
existence
uniqueness
global
positive
solution.
A
threshold
is
determined
employed
identify
factors
lead
infection
general
public.
Furthermore,
other
criteria
are
developed
eliminate
within
entire
The
MPV
eliminated
if
[Formula:
see
text],
but
continues
text].
study
depends
on
two
functional
scenarios
quantitatively
clarify
theoretical
results.
An
adapted
dataset
generated
employing
Adam
algorithm
minimize
mean
square
error
(MSE)
by
setting
its
data
effectiveness
81%
9%
testing,
10%
validation.
solver's
accuracy
validated
minimal
absolute
complementing
responses
every
hypothetical
situation.
In
order
verify
adaptation's
reliability
precision,
productivity
measured
using
histogram,
changeover
state,
prediction
addressing
model.
Visual
representations
used
illustrate
investigation
compare
Utilizing
this
hybrid
approach,
we
want
increase
our
comprehension
disease
propagation,
strengthen
forecasting
competencies,
influence
more
efficient
public
health
actions.
combination
processes
approaches
creates
powerful
tool
capturing
inherent
uncertainties
infectious
dynamics,
as
well
accurate
framework
real-time
epidemic
prevention.
Language: Английский
Transient analysis of a SIQS model with state capacities using a non-homogeneous Markov system
Journal of the Franklin Institute,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
362(1), P. 107347 - 107347
Published: Nov. 5, 2024
Language: Английский
Estimating the Prevalence of Terrorism under Control Policies. A Statistical Modelling Approach
Applied Mathematical Modelling,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
137, P. 115642 - 115642
Published: Aug. 18, 2024
Language: Английский
Inference of a Susceptible–Infectious stochastic model
Mathematical Biosciences & Engineering,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
21(9), P. 7067 - 7083
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
We
consider
a
time-inhomogeneous
diffusion
process
able
to
describe
the
dynamics
of
infected
people
in
susceptible-infectious
epidemic
model
which
transmission
intensity
function
is
time-dependent.
Such
well
suited
some
classes
micro-parasitic
infections
individuals
never
acquire
lasting
immunity
and
over
course
everyone
eventually
becomes
infected.
The
stochastic
related
deterministic
transformable
into
non
homogeneous
Wiener
so
probability
distribution
can
be
obtained.
Here
we
focus
on
inference
for
such
process,
by
providing
an
estimation
procedure
involved
parameters.
point
out
that
time
dependence
infinitesimal
moments
makes
classical
methods
inapplicable.
proposed
based
Generalized
Method
Moments
order
find
suitable
estimate
drift
variance
transformed
process.
Several
simulation
studies
are
conduced
test
procedure,
these
include
case,
comparison
with
results
obtained
applying
MLE
made,
cases
dependent
particular
attention
periodic
cases.
Finally,
apply
real
dataset.
Language: Английский
The Geographical Conditioning of Regional Differentiation Characterising the COVID-19 Pandemic in European Countries
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
21(10), P. 1342 - 1342
Published: Oct. 10, 2024
The
aim
of
this
paper
is
to
assess
the
influence
selected
geographical
factors
on
diversity
development
COVID-19
pandemic
in
Europe’s
regions,
and
its
dynamics
across
continent.
work
took
into
account
250
NUTS-2
regions.
datasets
included
course
(two
dependent
variables),
intervening
actions
(four
variables
research
background),
potential
environmental
socio-economic
conditioning
(twelve
independent
variables).
variables’
set
was
composed
two
indexes:
morbidity
temporal
inertia.
scope
23
March
2020–15
May
2022,
with
weekly
resolution.
By
means
multiple
linear
regression
model,
administrative
natural
assessed.
Finally,
a
synthetic
Regional
Epidemic
Vulnerability
Index
(REVI)
for
each
individual
region
calculated.
It
allowed
us
classify
regions
three
categories:
resistant,
neutral,
or
sensitive.
REVI’s
spatial
distribution
indicates
that
zone
above-average
vulnerability
occurred
western
part
Europe
around
Alps.
Therefore,
focus
ought
extend
beyond
regional
statistics,
towards
relationships,
like
contiguous
transit
position.
This
also
validated
strong
impact
national
borders.
Language: Английский