Exacerbated summer European warming not captured by climate models neglecting long-term aerosol changes

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: April 6, 2024

Abstract In much of western-central Europe, summer temperatures have surged three times faster than the global mean warming since 1980, yet this is not captured by most climate model simulations. Here we disentangle into thermodynamic and circulation-induced contributions, show that latter main reason why numerically simulated weaker observed. Crucially, regional models from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment with constant aerosol forcings systematically strongest discrepancies observations: in these simulations, brightening associated due to reductions represented. We estimate an effect ~0.5 °C over Europe for our ensemble, discrepancy evolving aerosols increases future projections. To better reap benefits high-resolution it thus imperative represent relevant external responses across entire chain.

Language: Английский

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The ERA5 global reanalysis from 1940 to 2022

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 150(764), P. 4014 - 4048

Published: July 31, 2024

Abstract We provide a description and concise evaluation of the European Centre Medium‐range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v.5 (ERA5) global reanalysis from an additional extension back to 1940 that was released in March 2023, including its timely updates end 2022. The ERA5 product 1979 2020 preliminary 1950 1978 have already been described elsewhere. new spans represents official release supersedes product. Currently, data record extends over more than 83 years hourly three‐dimensional fields for many quantities describe atmosphere, land surface, ocean waves at horizontal resolution about 31 km. relies on ingestion sub‐daily in‐situ satellite observations, number these increases 17,000 per day 25 million by Accordingly, quality improves throughout period. Over Northern Hemisphere generally provides reliable representation synoptic situation early 1940s long‐term variability is line with other datasets. Southern Hemisphere, however, period seems mainly statistical. Furthermore, there small deviation surface temperature compared reconstructions based monthly aggregations observations before 1946. For this period, absence upper air reveals model cold bias lower stratosphere. 1978, final here suboptimal treatment International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship release, with, as result, much homogeneous tropical cyclones entire record. Longer spin‐up periods also beneficial impact soil moisture.

Language: Английский

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Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 5, 2024

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above pre-industrial level, surpassing previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and El Niño onset fall short 0.2K in explaining rise. Utilizing satellite reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely reduced low-cloud cover northern mid-latitudes tropics, continuation multi-annual trend. Further exploring trend understanding how much it due internal variability, aerosol concentrations, or possibly emerging feedback will be crucial for assessing current expected future warming.

Language: Английский

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The prevalent life cycle of agricultural flash droughts

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(1)

Published: March 19, 2024

Abstract This work examines the characteristics and prevalent life cycle of agricultural flash droughts globally. Using ERA5 data, study introduces a drought indicator based on soil water availability. approach integrates root-zone moisture hydraulic properties, such as field capacity wilting point, to couple rapid depletion plant stress. Our findings reveal that present their higher frequency predominantly during critical growth periods crops. Notably, these exhibit similar regardless location or climatic regime. The primary cause is precipitation deficit, but evapotranspiration also plays significant role. In an energy-limited environment, rapidly increases before onset decreases intensification period system becomes water-limited. Upon concluding period, most crops experience stress, diminishing yields.

Language: Английский

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Human influence on the 2021 British Columbia floods

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 36, P. 100441 - 100441

Published: April 27, 2022

A strong atmospheric river made landfall in southwestern British Columbia, Canada on November 14th, 2021, bringing two days of intense precipitation to the region. The resulting floods and landslides led loss at least five lives, cut Vancouver off entirely from rest by road rail, this costliest natural disaster province's history. Here we show that when characterised terms storm-averaged water vapour transport, variable typically used characterise intensity rivers, westerly events magnitude are approximately one ten year current climate region, such have been 60% more likely effects human-induced change. Characterised associated two-day precipitation, event is substantially extreme, a fifty hundred event, probability large has increased best estimate 45% streamflow were exacerbated already wet conditions preceding rising temperatures during significant snowmelt, which maxima exceeding estimated several basins Based ensemble simulations with hydrological model integrates multiple climatic drivers, find extreme October December change 120–330%. Together these results demonstrate substantial human influence compound help motivate efforts increase resiliency face frequent kind future.

Language: Английский

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Global Climate

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 103(8), P. S11 - S142

Published: Aug. 1, 2022

Caption: Lightning discharges appear in various colours depending on the scatter of light inside thundercloud and atmosphere.The intracloud lightning centre to be white with a bluish tint, cloud-to-ground discharge below appears orange.The right hand side exhibits green tint that is attributed unique composition hydrometeors thundercloud.The photo was taken late evening 10 September 2013, near Tarragona northeastern Spain.

Language: Английский

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Coastal sea levels and wind-waves in the Mediterranean Sea since 1950 from a high-resolution ocean reanalysis

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: Sept. 29, 2022

In the Mediterranean Sea, coastal extreme sea levels are mainly caused by storm surges driven atmospheric pressure and surface winds from extratropical cyclones. addition, wind-waves generated same perturbations may also contribute to extremes through wave setup (temporal rise above mean level due dissipation breaking of waves in shallow waters close shore). This study investigates spatial temporal variability basin, using a new ocean hindcast with coupled hydrodynamic-wave model that simulates wind-waves. The numerical simulation covers period 1950-2021 high sampling (1h) at unprecedented resolution for basin scale analysis, reaches 200 m along coastlines. Coastal heights validated available observations (tide gauges, buoys satellites). Comparison against tide gauges shows an average RMSE 7.5 cm (7.7 events) linear correlation 0.64 whole period. Similarly, comparison simulated observed significant height good agreement, lower than 0.25 coefficient as 0.95. results confirm more likely be located regions wide continental shelves favouring wind contribution favour induced depth-breaking. has been quantified, combination uncoupled shown significant, assessed footprint regional maximum increased up 120% presence waves.

Language: Английский

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Missing eddy feedback may explain weak signal-to-noise ratios in climate predictions

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: July 11, 2022

Abstract The signal-to-noise paradox that climate models are better at predicting the real world than their own ensemble forecast members highlights a serious and currently unresolved model error, adversely affecting predictions introducing uncertainty into projections. By computing magnitude of feedback between transient eddies large-scale flow anomalies in multiple seasonal systems, this study shows current systems underestimate positive eddy feedback, deficiency is strongly linked to weak ratios mean predictions. Improved further shown be greater teleconnection strength El Niño Southern Oscillation Arctic stronger predictable signals. We also present technique estimate potential gain skill may come from eliminating deficiency, showing could double some extratropical regions, significantly improving Oscillation.

Language: Английский

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Comparing extremes indices in recent observational and reanalysis products

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 4

Published: Oct. 3, 2022

Monitoring changes in climate extremes is vitally important order to provide context for both our current and possible future climates. Datasets based on indices from situ observations reanalyses are often used this purpose. We assess the spatial temporal consistency between these two classes of dataset a global basis understand where they agree or complementary. As expected, temperature time series expressed as anomalies, self-normalizing indices, well. While there sometimes large spread absolute values products, long-term trends inter-annual variability also agreement. Spatially show high correlations, but comparisons cumulative distributions at each grid box differences regions altitude interpolation has been performed across climatic zones. The agreement lower observation-based reanalysis datasets precipitation indices. Trends larger heterogeneity, variation averages than magnitude trend. These heterogeneity trends, which results comparatively small averages, compared variation. average smaller correlations strong positive some A subset higher with latest -based dataset, HadEX3, have per-grid distributions, indicating close dataset. Also, we outline how herein suggest that gridding method when creating HadEX3 may need be updated versions retain detail arising topographic features, example.

Language: Английский

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The South American monsoon approaches a critical transition in response to deforestation

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(40)

Published: Oct. 4, 2023

The Amazon rainforest is threatened by land-use change and increasing drought fire frequency. Studies suggest an abrupt dieback of large parts the after partial forest loss, but critical threshold, underlying mechanisms, possible impacts degradation on monsoon circulation remain uncertain. Here, we use a nonlinear dynamical model moisture transport recycling across to identify several precursor signals for transition in coupled atmosphere-vegetation dynamics. Guided our simulations, reveal both statistical physical approaching reanalysis observational data. In accordance with results, attribute these characteristic nearing system induced loss due deforestation, droughts, fires. would lead substantially drier conditions, under which could likely not be maintained.

Language: Английский

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