Analysis of the Observed Trends in Rainfall and Temperature Patterns in North-Eastern Nigeria DOI Open Access
Deborah Ishaku, Emmanuel Tanko Umaru,

A.A. Adebayo

et al.

Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(12), P. 219 - 219

Published: Dec. 11, 2024

The present study offers a comprehensive evaluation of the monthly rainfall and temperature patterns across nine stations fifty-nine points in North-Eastern Nigeria using NASA’s Prediction Worldwide Energy Resources data, spanning four decades (1981–2021). By employing Mann–Kendall (MK) test inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation, researchers effectively detected visualized trends climate variables. MK results indicate contrasting trends, with notable decreases Akko, Billiri, Maiduguri, Numan, Yola, increases Gombe, Abadam, Biu, Mubi. maximum were found to be statistically significant all stations, showing consistent increase, whereas minimum exhibited slight but insignificant decrease. application Theil–Sen slope estimator quantified these providing nuanced insights into magnitudes changes IDW further corroborate general trend decreasing (z = −0.442), modest 0.046), marginal decline −0.005). This makes an important contribution by advocating for proactive dissemination information. Given evident shifts, particularly increasing temperatures fluctuating patterns, timely access such information is crucial enhancing resilience region. rigorous statistical methods applied detailed spatial analysis strengthen validity findings, making this valuable resource both policymakers aiming address variability Nigeria. These research may also useful understanding variabilities different parts world.

Language: Английский

Seasonality in atmospheric circulation patterns leading to wet and dry seasons in southeast Australia and implications for droughts DOI Creative Commons
Irina Rudeva

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100750 - 100750

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Physical mechanisms of meteorological drought development, intensification and termination: an Australian review DOI Creative Commons
Chiara Holgate, Georgina Falster, Zoe E. Gillett

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 25, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Farming on the edge: assessing the impact of historical and future climate change on the mediterranean cropping margins of Australia DOI Creative Commons
Uday Nidumolu,

Peter Hayman,

Andrew Fletcher

et al.

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 178(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Anthropogenic warming reduces the likelihood of drought-breaking extreme rainfall events in southeast Australia DOI Creative Commons
Chiara Holgate, Acacia Pepler, Irina Rudeva

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 42, P. 100607 - 100607

Published: Sept. 5, 2023

Future climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts in many drought-prone regions world. However, coarsely-resolved sometimes opposing rainfall changes across global models, a lack understanding weather-scale processes that cause begin end, create uncertainties around these future regions. Here, we reveal co-occurrence deep low-pressure system over southeast Australia with an adjacent high-pressure Tasman Sea key dynamic mechanism responsible for extreme drought-breaking Australia. Regional models project decline events by 9% every degree warming, 11.6% per associated rainfall, increasing risk region entering staying drought late 21st century. This critical dynamical context brings confidence duration provides opportunity robustly identify parts world where similar mechanisms may also play role extreme, rainfall.

Language: Английский

Citations

8
Examining past and projecting future: an 800-year streamflow reconstruction of the Australian Murray river DOI Creative Commons
Philippa Higgins, Jonathan Palmer, Martin S. Andersen

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(10), P. 104016 - 104016

Published: Sept. 12, 2023

Abstract Managing water security and sustaining ecosystem functions under future warming poses substantial challenges for semi-arid regions. The Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) is particularly vulnerable given the considerable demand that underpins Australia’s agricultural production contribution to national economy. Understanding drought risk requires a robust assessment of natural variability in length, frequency, magnitude. In absence long instrumental records, past characteristics can be inferred from paleo-records. We reconstruct over 800 years Murray River streamflow using suite tree-ring chronologies regions with strong climate teleconnections MDB. reconstruction (1190–2000 CE) captures broad spectrum variability, not fully represented contributing an improved understanding occurrence rate multi-year droughts. found Millennium Drought, which occurred 2000s, was most severe (joint duration, magnitude, peak) during 800-year reconstruction. return period this event estimated ∼2500 years. However, droughts early-1200s were longer duration similar magnitude Drought. used models assess how probability might change future. Compared baseline, project increase severity. While within uncertainty range projections, driest forecast shows significant likelihood compared variability. Our results highlight need management strategies rely solely on data as it may represent current risks. Ensuring resilient MDB will require policy broader anthropogenic than currently recognised.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
The role of internal variability and external forcing on southwestern Australian rainfall: prospects for very wet or dry years DOI Creative Commons
Surendra Rauniyar, Pandora Hope, Scott B. Power

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Dec. 7, 2023

The cool-season (May to October) rainfall decline in southwestern Australia deepened during 2001-2020 become 20.5% less than the 1901-1960 reference period average, with a complete absence of very wet years (i.e., > 90th percentile). CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate model simulations suggest that approximately 43% observed multi-decadal was externally-forced. However, 20-year anomaly is outside range both preindustrial control historical almost all models used this study. This, fact generally appear simulate realistic levels decadal variability, suggests might be an underestimate. A large ensemble from one exhibits drying similar observations 10% external forcing contribution indeed larger (66%). majority project further over twenty-first century, even under strong cuts greenhouse gas emissions. Under two warmest scenarios, 70% late century are projected drier driest year simulated period. Our results few, if any, will occur 2023-2100, global emissions made.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Breaking Rossby waves drive extreme precipitation in the world’s arid regions DOI Creative Commons
Andries Jan de Vries, Moshe Armon, Klaus Klingmüller

et al.

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Sept. 20, 2024

More than a third of the world's population lives in drylands and is disproportionately at risk from hydrometeorological hazards such as drought flooding. While weather systems governing precipitation formation humid regions have been widely explored, our understanding atmospheric processes generating arid remains fragmented best. Here we show, using variety datasets, that Rossby wave breaking key driver worldwide. contributes up to 90% daily extremes 80% total amounts equatorward downstream midlatitude storm tracks. The relevance for increases with increasing land aridity. Contributions dominate poleward westward portions subtropical during cool season. Our findings imply plays crucial role projections uncertainties future changes societally vulnerable are exposed both freshwater shortages flood hazards.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
How unusual was Australia's 2017–2019 Tinderbox Drought? DOI Creative Commons
Georgina Falster, Sloan Coats, Nerilie J. Abram

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100734 - 100734

Published: Oct. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Recent trends in extratropical lows and their rainfall over Australia DOI Creative Commons
Acacia Pepler

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 74(3)

Published: Oct. 22, 2024

Low pressure systems are an important source of rainfall in southern Australia, particularly deep lows that extend from the surface to at least 500 hPa. This paper uses multiple reanalyses assess long-term trends over period 1959–2023, and identifies statistically significant decreasing number low near Australia during May–October, linked a decrease cyclogenesis south-western Western Australia. Trends hPa also negative but weaker than surface, less consistent between owing observations through time. The spatial pattern observed declines cool season is with using eight CMIP6 models, global climate models systematically underestimate magnitude decline lows. associated shown, including assessing sensitivity specific years used. Despite well above average numbers enhanced recent La Niña 2020–2022, total declining south-east largest on east coast, where they explain more 70% changes since 1960s.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
A Multiscale Evaluation of the Wet 2022 in Eastern Australia DOI Open Access
Kimberley J. Reid, Michael A. Barnes, Zoe E. Gillett

et al.

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 12, 2024

Abstract Eastern Australia experienced record-breaking rainfall and flooding during 2022, which devastated communities led to over AU$6 billion of damage. In this study, we conduct a multiscale analysis understand why 2022 was unusually wet with multiple events the year. We assess synoptic mesoscale conditions three key periods: February-March, July, October. These periods were chosen because they impactful represent different seasons. Next, examine large-scale climate drivers evaluate how unusual these compared previous years. Finally, discuss predictability possible impact change on heavy in eastern Australia. The exceptional likely due excessive slow-moving cyclones combined ample atmospheric moisture flux. (El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Southern Annular Mode) primed for frequent rain-bearing weather systems. There limited beyond one-week lead time February-March July events, but one-month seasonal forecast October indicated complexity multiday extreme makes it difficult distinguish role from natural variability. However, highlight where future research could focus help us risks region. Our results emphasise importance examining perspectives considering interactions between scales analysing isolation is insufficient explaining high weather.

Language: Английский

Citations

2