Residual emissions in long-term national climate strategies show limited climate ambition

One Earth, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 7(5), P. 867 - 884

Published: May 1, 2024

Net-zero targets imply a need to compensate for residual emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal methods. Yet extent within national climate plans, alongside their distribution, is largely unexplored. Here, we analyze 71 long-term strategies understand how governments engage with emissions. Screening 139 scenarios, determined that only 26 quantify Residual are on average 21% peak Annex I countries, ranging from 5% 52% (excluding land use). For non-Annex 34%. By sector, agriculture represents largest contributor total (on average, 36% countries and 35% countries). High-residual-emission scenarios show some may retain or expand fossil fuel production use, using more international offsets achieve net zero.

Language: Английский

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Deployment expectations of multi-gigatonne scale carbon removal could have adverse impacts on Asia’s energy-water-land nexus

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: July 27, 2024

Abstract Existing studies indicate that future global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) removal (CDR) efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. However, there is limited understanding of how individual Asian countries and regions will respond to varying uncertain scales CDR concerning their energy-land-water system. We address this gap by modeling various levels CDR-reliant pathways under climate change ambitions find high reliance leads residual fossil fuel industry emissions about 8 Gigatonnes CO yr −1 (GtCO 2050, compared less than 1 GtCO moderate-to-low reliance. Moreover, expectations multi-gigatonne delay the achievement domestic net zero for several regions, lead higher land allocation fertilizer demand bioenergy crop cultivation. Here, we show should prioritize emission reduction strategies while capitalizing on advantages when it most viable.

Language: Английский

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Forerunner city or net-zero opportunist? Carbon dioxide removal in Stockholm, residual emissions and risks of mitigation deterrence

Energy Research & Social Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 113, P. 103567 - 103567

Published: April 27, 2024

The City of Stockholm aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2030 compensating for residual using bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Relying heavily on negative reach the target, city's strategy presents an interesting case climate policymaking. Based analysis interviews, Council debates, policy documents, underscores importance understanding municipal in a multi-level setting, where ability govern varies between sectors depending politics at other levels governance. Both waste incineration road transport are perceived include hard-to-abate 2030, partly due governance linkages involving regional, national, EU-level governing bodies. energy utility, Exergi, plans implement BECCS, funding from EU public private sources, heat power plant. unique opportunity use BECCS as part target has made it possible advance goal 2040 2030. However, there risks that relying may muffle debate what constitutes city, subsequently leading smaller investments emission reductions. Additionally, schedule implementing is overly optimistic, meaning fulfilment be threatened. this risk not isolated BECCS; similar associated combining fossil fuels CCS. We recommend city critically examines emissions, considers separate targets instead goal, conducts assessments key mitigation technologies maintain its status forerunner.

Language: Английский

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Climate beliefs, climate technologies and transformation pathways: Contextualizing public perceptions in 22 countries

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 87, P. 102880 - 102880

Published: July 1, 2024

As emerging methods for carbon removal and controversial proposals around solar radiation modification are gaining traction in climate assessments policy debates, a better understanding of how the public perceives these approaches is needed. Relying on qualitative data from 44 focus groups (n = 323 respondents), triangulated with survey conducted 22 countries over 000 participants), we examine role that change beliefs attitudes towards action play formation perceptions modification. We find nationally varying degrees perceived personal harm worry predict support technologies. In addition to different problem, solution – i.e. scope needed − shape publics' assessment. Various tensions manifest themselves reflections potential contribution technologies action, including "buying time vs. delaying action", "treating symptoms tackling root causes", "urgency act effects only distant future". embedded three broader narratives about transformation pathways, each reflecting notions responsibility: (i) behavior change-centred (ii) top-down industry-centred (iii) technology-centred pathways. These results suggest deployment studied hinges them being tied credible system-wide decarbonization efforts as well their ability effectively respond variety impacts.

Language: Английский

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Key uncertainties behind global projections of direct air capture deployment

Applied Energy, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 348, P. 121485 - 121485

Published: July 11, 2023

To limit global warming to levels set in the Paris Agreement, integrated assessment modeling highlights necessity of removing gigatons carbon dioxide. Direct air capture is one potential methods for dioxide removal and has gained significant attention despite being a relatively new technology. While some scenarios can meet targets without relying on direct capture, other models show need up 38 gigatons/yr by this Such wide variation projections reflects uncertainty over feasibility deploying at scale points greater model assumptions driving variation. This study provides comprehensive review from Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report peer-reviewed studies focusing as mitigation strategy. The identifies several key factors contributing projections, including prolonged fossil fuel use, diversity methods, future socio-economic conditions, intergenerational assumptions, deployment limitations, technology costs. recommends conducting multi-model assessments due influence various structures projections. authors also suggest different variants both utilization storage pathways models, these impact system demands, economic efficiency, public acceptability.

Language: Английский

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