Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 88, P. 102907 - 102907

Published: Aug. 19, 2024

Language: Английский

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The use of decision making under deep uncertainty in the IPCC

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: June 14, 2024

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) exists to provide policy-relevant assessments of the science related climate change. As such, IPCC has long grappled with characterizing and communicating uncertainty in its assessments. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) is a set concepts, methods, tools inform decisions when there exist substantial significant limitations what can be known about questions. Over last twenty-five years, drawn increasingly DMDU concepts more effectively include policy-relevant, but lower-confidence scientific information This paper traces history IPCC’s use explains intersection key such as risk, scenarios, treatment uncertainty, storylines high-impact, low-likelihood outcomes, both adaptation resilient development pathways. suggests how might benefit from enhanced current (7th) assessment cycle.

Language: Английский

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Dynamic correlation of environmental regulation, technological innovation, and corporate carbon emissions: empirical evidence from China listed companies

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: March 11, 2025

The notable rise in carbon emissions has profoundly affected humanity's sustainable development. Achieving the "dual-carbon" goal requires understanding how enterprises can effectively reduce their footprint. To elucidate dynamic correlation of environmental regulation, corporate technological innovation, and emissions, this study employs a Panel Vector Autoregression model to analyze data from listed firms between 2005 2021, using GMM regression, impulse response analysis, variance decomposition. key findings are: (1) Environmental exhibit self-reinforcing mechanisms, though effect weakens over time. (2) regulation reduces significantly, is partially mediated through innovation. (3) A bidirectional relationship exists innovation where stronger positive on reducing emissions. (4) promotes while gradually mitigates stringency regulation. herein offer actionable insights for adopt cleaner production strategies scientific basis policymakers enhance regulations pursuit low-carbon economy.

Language: Английский

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Adaptive Planning Approaches for Coastal Climate Adaptation: Process and Key-elements

Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 21, 2025

Abstract The paradigm of Adaptive Planning and Management provides several methodological approaches for designing robust adaptive plans to cope with uncertain future changes, namely the Adaptation Pathways’ method (APs). These approaches, particularly those containing APs, have captured increasing interest in field coastal climate adaptation as useful guiding its planning management. While these been tested research cases, there are still few real cases application into spatial instruments. Furthermore, lack implementation actions urbanized coasts worldwide, so-called gaps, points need investigating what extent APs being applied plans. A deeper analysis is required understand how crafted. This article focusses on two major APs-based management instruments – Thames Estuary 2100 Plan Delta Programme identify elements were essential design an plan operationalize approach, including ingredients that had meet be adaptive. Our results suggest at least five craft deliver a accomplish Management.

Language: Английский

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Climate change risks illustrated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “burning embers”

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(1), P. 317 - 349

Published: Jan. 31, 2025

Abstract. The completion of the Sixth Assessment Cycle Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a unique opportunity to understand where world stands climate-change-related risks natural and human systems at global level, as well for specific regions sectors. Since its Third Report (AR3), released 2 decades ago, IPCC has developed synthetic representation how increase with warming, risk levels reflected by colours used, including shades yellow red, which led nickname “burning embers”. While initially designed illustrate five overarching Reasons Concern, these diagrams have been progressively applied in over last 10 years. However, information gathered through expert elicitation resulting quantitative assessments hitherto remained scattered within across reports data files. This paper overcomes this limitation developing database containing all embers from AR3 AR6 an associated online “Climate Risks Embers Explorer” (CREE) facilitate exploration assessed risks. are also available archive file widely accessible format (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12626976, Marbaix et al., 2024). Important aspects homogenization discussed, approach structuring increases is presented. Potential uses explored aggregated analyses adaptation benefits, show that, excluding high-adaptation cases, half moderate high between 1.5 2.3 °C result consistent separate assessment Concern IPCC. lays groundwork future development burning providing standardized baseline data. It highlights important areas improvement forthcoming Seventh IPCC, particularly towards systematic, homogeneous, structured collection illustrated increases; comprehensive coverage impacted regions; systematic consideration and/or vulnerability levels; and, possibly, response measures. In context ever-growing body literature knowledge, facility described herein potential help synthesizing illustrating scales more way.

Language: Английский

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Supporting adaptive pathways planning using archetypes for climate adaptation

Regional Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: Feb. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

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The governance of hydrosocial risk in peri‐urban South Australia

Geographical Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 62(4), P. 553 - 568

Published: July 22, 2024

Abstract Climate change is generating levels of environmental risk that are jeopardising modern development. As the management water systems becomes more difficult, approaches to governance and engagement within regions increasingly shaping adaptation successes failures. We use theory on hydrosocial critically analyse stakeholder experiences a transition in South Australian peri‐urban Adelaide, with detail from Langhorne Creek viticultural region. Local prescription resources has limited over‐exploitation supported landowners sophisticated ways. When community stakeholders deliberated common concerns organisations for mutually beneficial outcomes, decision‐making successful adaptation. Ongoing challenges, such as lack confidence scientific knowledge guiding decisions, were accentuated when process was politicised became inauthentic. If trust between local broken, it difficult re‐engage farming decision‐making. In contrast, by working closely end‐users, government can enable appropriate behaviour guide adaptive management. Attention processes will be crucial facilitate effective policy response climate risk.

Language: Английский

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Adaptation to climate change in the mountain regions of Central Asia: A systematic literature review

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5)

Published: May 24, 2024

Abstract The mountains of Central Asia support many environmental functions and ecosystem services. mountain environments their services are affected by climate change adaptation (CCA) actions required to increase resilience regional communities. This paper is a systematic review the English Russian‐language literature published between 2013 (IPCC AR5) May 2021 AR6) focusing on CCA in Asian mountains. In all, 52 publications have been reviewed. Criteria defining incremental transformative were established reviewed studies assigned one these approaches. relatively low number shows that extent knowledge represented academic limited comparison other mountainous regions. There disparity growing body addressing decreasing region. Only 11 reported actions. Most papers (55%) focus water resources future availability; 15% land degradation, 10% changes vertical zonation plant species, 7% loss 3% impacts hazardous events, multiple change. awareness importance among actors should be improved through closer collaboration researchers, international organizations sustainable development which recently become more active region, practitioners, local communities co‐production implementation CCA. article categorized under: Trans‐Disciplinary Perspectives > Humanities Creative Arts Vulnerability Adaptation Climate Change Institutions for Assessing Impacts Observed

Language: Английский

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Climate change risks illustrated by the IPCC “burning embers”

Published: Aug. 2, 2024

Abstract. The completion of the Sixth Assessment Cycle Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a unique opportunity to understand where world stands climate change-related risks natural and human systems, at global level as well for specific regions sectors. Since its Third Report, released two decades ago, IPCC has developed synthetic representation how increase with warming, known “burning embers” diagrams due colours used. While initially designed illustrate five overarching Reasons Concern, these have been progressively applied in systems over last 10 years. However, information gathered through expert elicitation resulting quantitative risk assessments hitherto remained scattered within across reports data files. This paper overcomes this limitation by developing an ember database associated online “climate explorer” facilitate exploration assessed risks. are also available archive file widely accessible format (doi:10.5281/zenodo.12626977, Marbaix et al. 2024). Important aspects homogenisation discussed, approach structuring increases is presented. Potential uses explored aggregated analyses adaptation benefits, which show that, excluding high cases, half levels from moderate between 1.5 °C 2 2.3 result consistent separate assessment Concern IPCC. lays groundwork future development burning embers providing standardised baseline data. It highlights important areas improvement forthcoming Seventh Cycle, particular towards systematic, homogenous, structured collection illustrated increases, comprehensive coverage impacted regions, systematic consideration and/or vulnerability levels, possibly response measures. In context ever-growing literature knowledge, facility described herein potential help synthesising illustrating scales more way.

Language: Английский

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We need to prepare our transport systems for heatwaves — here’s how

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 632(8024), P. 253 - 256

Published: Aug. 5, 2024

Language: Английский

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