Doing better rather than promising more: A basic principle applicable to both climate modelling and climate policies

PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 4(1), P. e0000466 - e0000466

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

A growing number of scientists are expressing concerns about the inadequacy climate change policies. Fewer questionning dominant modelling paradigm and IPCC’s success to prevent humanity from venturing unprepared into hitherto unknown territories. However, in view an urgent need provide readily available data on constraining uncertainty local regional impacts next few years, there is a debate most suitable path inform both mitigation adaptation strategies. Examples given how common statistical methods emerging technologies can be used exploit wealth existing knowledge drive policy. Parsimonious equitable approaches promoted that combine various lines evidence, including model diversity, large ensembles, storylines, novel applied well-calibrated, global regional, Earth System simulations, deliver more reliable information. As examplified by Paris agreement desirable warming targets, it argued display unrealistic ambitions may not best way for modellers accomplish their long-term objectives, especially consensus emergency allocated short time delivered applied.

Language: Английский

---

Do urban digital twins need agents?

Environment and Planning B Urban Analytics and City Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 7, 2025

The urban digital twin (UDT) is derived from the original digital-twin concept of a representation physical assets. This has left social component city underrepresented in UDTs. Here, we discuss what this means for current maturity stage UDTs and why better representing human behaviour may diversify possibilities to support different types planning. We contemplate operationalizing by agent-based models (ABMs) integrated with illustrate two concrete examples simulating stress safety perception public spaces. One example shows idea UDT as live data repository ABMs, ABM adding dynamism, other feedback between city, UDT. several epistemological, conceptual, technical, ethical challenges that be involved integration. conclude future agenda promote (1) abandonment vision highly detailed mirror (2) fit sectoral (strategic) addition operational planning, (3) inclusion behavioural processes incorporating (4) culture cumulative research using structured guided frameworks reusable building blocks, (5) ABMs explicit purposes allow fit-for-purpose selection UDTs, (6) explicitly addressing epistemic, normative, moral responsibilities. Thus, though including agents at some point solution (currently lacking) perspective on role humans shaping being shaped reconsiderations communities need take place first.

Language: Английский

---

Models and the common good

Environmental Modelling & Software, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 106430 - 106430

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

---

Digital Twins of the Earth Between Vision and Fiction

Minerva, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 9, 2025

Language: Английский

---