Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models DOI Creative Commons
Jens Terhaar

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21(17), P. 3903 - 3926

Published: Sept. 4, 2024

Abstract. The ocean and the land biosphere are two major sinks of anthropogenic carbon at present. When emissions become zero temperatures stabilize, is projected to dominant only global natural sink carbon. Despite ocean's importance for cycle hence climate, uncertainties about decadal variability in this underlying drivers remain large because observing detecting changes over time challenging. main tools that used provide annually resolved estimates last decades observation-based pCO2 products extrapolate sparse observations space biogeochemical models forced with atmospheric reanalysis data. However, these (i) limited 3 7 decades, which hinders statistical analyses trends; (ii) all based on same internal climate state, makes it impossible separate externally internally contributions (iii) cannot assess robustness future, especially when decline or cease entirely. Here, I use an ensemble 12 Earth system (ESMs) from phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) understand trends past, present, future sink. simulations by ESMs span period 1850 2100 include four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), low high mitigation mitigation. Using ensemble, show 80 % can be explained CO2 as long remains smaller than 4.5 Pg C yr−1. remaining 20 due heat uptake, result a loss ocean. exceeds yr−1, occurs high-emission SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5, rises faster, change accelerates, overturning chemical capacity take up atmosphere reduce, so substantially estimated trends. breakdown relationship both pathways also implies increase effectively ∼1 yr−1 dec−1 pathways, even if trend continues increase. Previously proposed drivers, such growth rate CO2, explain specific periods, example, during exponential growth, but fail start decrease again. robust suggests very positive negative some highly unlikely around 2000 likely products.

Language: Английский

Oceans break heat records five years in a row DOI

Xiaoying You

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 625(7995), P. 434 - 435

Published: Jan. 11, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Global total precipitable water variations and trends over the period 1958–2021 DOI Creative Commons
Nenghan Wan, Xiaomao Lin,

Roger A. Pielke

et al.

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(9), P. 2123 - 2137

Published: May 15, 2024

Abstract. Global responses of the hydrological cycle to climate change have been widely studied, but uncertainties still remain regarding water vapor lower-tropospheric temperature. Here, we investigate trends in global total precipitable (TPW) and surface temperature from 1958 2021 using ERA5 JRA-55 reanalysis datasets. We further validate these radiosonde 1979 2019 Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) observations 2003 2021. Our results indicate a increase ∼ 2 % per decade 1993–2021. These variations TPW reflect interactions warming feedback mechanisms across different spatial scales. also revealed significant near-surface (T2 m) trend 0.15 K decade−1 over period 1958–2021. The consistent at rate 0.21 after 1993 corresponds strong response 9.5 K−1 globally, with land areas approximately twice as fast oceans. relationship between T2 m showed variation around 6 K−1–8 15–55° N latitude band, aligning theoretical estimates Clausius–Clapeyron equation.

Language: Английский

Citations

5
Machine Learning Identification of Attributes and Predictors for a Flash Drought in Eastern Australia DOI Open Access
Milton S. Speer, Joshua Hartigan, Lance M. Leslie

et al.

Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 49 - 49

Published: April 8, 2024

Flash droughts (FDs) are natural disasters that strike suddenly and intensify quickly. They occur almost anywhere, anytime of the year, can have severe socio-economic, health environmental impacts. This study focuses on a recent FD began in cool season Upper Hunter region Eastern Australia, an important energy agricultural local global exporter is both flood- drought-prone. Here, authors investigate started abruptly May 2023 extended to October 2023. The followed floods November 2021 much above-average May–October 2022 rainfall. Eight machine learning (ML) regression techniques were applied 60 periods from 1963–2022, using rolling windows attribution search 45 possible climate drivers, individually combination. six most prominent likely predictors, provide understanding major contributors FD. Next, 1963–2022 data divided into two shorter timespans, 1963–1992 1993–2022, generally accepted as representing early accelerated warming periods, respectively. key attributes markedly different for timespans. These differences readily explained by impacts hemispheric synoptic-scale atmospheric circulations.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
The atmospheric ‘cold blob’ over Fennoscandia from October 2023 to January 2024 DOI Creative Commons
Mika Rantanen, Otto Hyvärinen, Andrea Vajda

et al.

Weather, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 6, 2024

Abstract Between October 2023 and January 2024, a remarkably persistent cold air anomaly prevailed over Fennoscandia on an otherwise record‐warm planet. This article describes the temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation seasonal predictions associated with blob. The 4‐month period from to was third coldest in during ongoing century. blob anomalous circulation; for example, jet stream wind speeds were exceptionally high south of Fennoscandia. Furthermore, forecasts failed capture blob, which may be related difficulties simulating El Niño teleconnections by long‐range forecasting systems.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Drivers of decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink in the past, present, and future in Earth system models DOI Creative Commons
Jens Terhaar

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21(17), P. 3903 - 3926

Published: Sept. 4, 2024

Abstract. The ocean and the land biosphere are two major sinks of anthropogenic carbon at present. When emissions become zero temperatures stabilize, is projected to dominant only global natural sink carbon. Despite ocean's importance for cycle hence climate, uncertainties about decadal variability in this underlying drivers remain large because observing detecting changes over time challenging. main tools that used provide annually resolved estimates last decades observation-based pCO2 products extrapolate sparse observations space biogeochemical models forced with atmospheric reanalysis data. However, these (i) limited 3 7 decades, which hinders statistical analyses trends; (ii) all based on same internal climate state, makes it impossible separate externally internally contributions (iii) cannot assess robustness future, especially when decline or cease entirely. Here, I use an ensemble 12 Earth system (ESMs) from phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) understand trends past, present, future sink. simulations by ESMs span period 1850 2100 include four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), low high mitigation mitigation. Using ensemble, show 80 % can be explained CO2 as long remains smaller than 4.5 Pg C yr−1. remaining 20 due heat uptake, result a loss ocean. exceeds yr−1, occurs high-emission SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5, rises faster, change accelerates, overturning chemical capacity take up atmosphere reduce, so substantially estimated trends. breakdown relationship both pathways also implies increase effectively ∼1 yr−1 dec−1 pathways, even if trend continues increase. Previously proposed drivers, such growth rate CO2, explain specific periods, example, during exponential growth, but fail start decrease again. robust suggests very positive negative some highly unlikely around 2000 likely products.

Language: Английский

Citations

4