Discussion of the “warming and wetting” trend and its future variation in the drylands of Northwest China under global warming

Science China Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 66(6), P. 1241 - 1257

Published: May 16, 2023

Language: Английский

---

Spatio-temporal dynamic evaluation of agricultural drought based on a three-dimensional identification method in Northwest China

Agricultural Water Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 284, P. 108325 - 108325

Published: May 2, 2023

Drought evolution is a complex dynamic process, showing continuous characteristics in space-time. Currently, the researches on drought dynamics from multiple dimensions are limited and should be improved further. Therefore, three-dimensional identification method was adopted to investigate spatiotemporal patterns of classified events (namely two-month events, within-year cross-year events) northwest China during1961–2018. Furthermore, more spatial variables event, such as start end location, orientation rotation, were extracted describe migration trajectories events. Significantly, rotation helped reveal forcing mechanisms (such influence climate land surface) behind their development. The results showed that total 169 identified over 1961–2018, (duration, area, severity, distance) represented fluctuating decreasing trend with rate − 0.135/10a, 0.006/10a, 0.16/10a, 5.67/10a. process individual event objectively effectively depicted perspective, which consistent historical records study area. Regarding magnitude severe 1961–1980 than 1981–2018, three primary (east-to-east, west-to-west, south-to-south) China. Within-year mostly started first quarters finished second half year, whilst situation reversed for Spatially, Alxa League Inner Mongolia Qinghai Province two main centers. Additionally, characterized by clockwise distributed plateau southeast zones, anticlockwise westerly zone. Noticeably, east-to-east pathways mainly located east part while west-to-west south-to-south dominated west part.

Language: Английский

---

Warming-and-wetting trend over the China’s drylands: Observational evidence and future projection

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 86, P. 102826 - 102826

Published: March 11, 2024

A recent "warming-and-wetting" trend over China's drylands has raised widespread attention in the scientific community. Based on observations and model projections of temperature precipitation, this study shows that warming regional wetting is becoming stronger. Over past 60 years, increased at a rate 0.34 °C/10a, much higher than China (0.29 °C/10a) globally (0.22 °C/10a). The been primarily apparent western part since 1980s, particularly mountainous areas. In northeast edge Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, exceeded 30 mm/10a. possible cause increase precipitation may be convective also concentrating Model show weak strong future under RCP2.6 RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Precipitation will slightly mid-21st century then decrease slowly until end 21st scenario. comparison, scenario, it by 15–25% century.

Language: Английский

---

Interdecadal Variation of Springtime Compound Temperature‐Precipitation Extreme Events in China and Its Association With Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

Abstract The concurrent occurrence of temperature and precipitation extremes, known as compound temperature‐precipitation extreme events (CTPEEs), leads to more pronounced consequences for human society ecosystems than when these extremes occur separately. However, such have not been sufficiently studied, especially during boreal spring. Spring is an important transition season, which the CTPEEs plays a pivotal role in plant growth revival terrestrial ecosystems. This study investigates spatio‐temporal variation characteristics spring China, including warm‐dry, warm‐wet, cold‐dry, cold‐wet combinations. most frequently, followed by cold‐dry events. frequency associated with warm (cold) shows marked interdecadal increase (decrease) around mid‐to‐late 1990s. It found that change primarily determined extremes. shift coincides phase transitions Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Interdecadal Pacific (IPO). After 1990s, configuration positive AMO negative IPO excited atmospheric wave trains over mid‐high latitudes, causing high‐pressure anticyclonic anomalies East Asia. less cloudiness, allowing downward solar radiation, enhances surface warming contributes warm‐dry warm‐wet above observations are confirmed Pacemaker experiments. results this highlight significant contribution internal climate variability changes at regional scale.

Language: Английский

---

Applicability of Different Indices for Delineating the Boundary of Arid Region: A Case Study in Northwestern China

Journal of Earth Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 36(1), P. 212 - 222

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

---

Progress and prospect on climate warming and humidification in Northwest China

Chinese Science Bulletin (Chinese Version), Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 68(14), P. 1814 - 1828

Published: Oct. 17, 2022

西北地区是全球特殊的自然地理环境区，气候变化比较独特、形成机理比较复杂、对社会和自然环境的影响比较突出。尤其，自本世纪初有研究提出气候从暖干向暖湿转型的科学认识之后，西北地区气候变化问题引起了学术界乃至社会各界的普遍关注，也兴起了对西北地区气候变化趋势、驱动机制及影响特征的广泛研究，三十多年来已积累了大量的研究成果。然而，由于以往不同研究所用资料的类型、序列长度和时空分辨率不同，所关注的时段和区域不同，认识问题的视角和维度不同，使得对西北地区气候变化存在一些分歧认识或者相悖结论，导致社会和媒体上出现一些五花八门的论调，甚至认为西北地区可能会变成“江南”或重回“汉唐”等等。鉴于此，本研究通过系统梳理西北地区气候变化研究的历史经纬，总结归纳已有的研究成果，综合考虑不同视角和不同维度，划分了西北地区增暖与干湿变化特征科学认识的六个阶段；从人类活动和大气环流两方面对西北暖湿化的驱动机制进行了概括；同时从暖湿化对生态、农业及水资源等方面的影响进行了评估；对未来的暖湿变化趋势及其可能的风险进行了预估；最后针对当前西北暖湿化研究中存在的不足和问题，提出未来研究需要从大气、水文及生态等多学科相互作用角度探讨气候暖湿化的驱动机制、暖湿化背景下极端天气气候事件的变化特征、地表水分循环对暖湿化的响应特征、暖湿化与水文和生态的耦合机制、暖湿化对水安全、生态安全及粮食安全带来的机遇和风险以及“双碳”目标下西北地区未来气候变化趋势与适应等重点科学问题上取得突破。

Language: Английский

---

Intensified Structural Overshoot Aggravates Drought Impacts on Dryland Ecosystems

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Abstract A favorable environment can induce vegetation overgrowth to exceed the ecosystem carrying capacity, exacerbating water resource depletion and increasing risk of lagged effects on degradation. This phenomenon is defined as structural overshoot, which lead large‐scale forest mortality grassland deterioration. However, current understanding overshoot remains incomplete due complex time‐varying interactions between climate. Here, we used a dynamic learning algorithm decompose contributions climate drought occurrence, trace connection antecedent concurrent dynamics, thus effectively capturing overshoot. study focused climate‐sensitive hotspot in Northwest China drylands, where significant greening induced by warming wetting was detected during 1982–2015, leading soil moisture deficit aggravating degradation risks droughts. We found that this period, approximately 34.6% events, accounted for 16.7% these events. The occurrence droughts exhibited an trend over time, primarily driven followed precipitation variation. Although severity non‐overshoot were generally comparable spatial distribution, impact still becoming increasingly obvious. Our results indicate expected intensified cannot be ignored emphasize necessity sustainable agroecosystem management strategies.

Language: Английский

---

Warmer and wetter climate induced by the continual increase in atmospheric temperature and precipitable water vapor over the arid and semi–arid regions of Northwest China

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 42, P. 101151 - 101151

Published: June 27, 2022

arid and semi–arid regions of Northwest China Precipitable water vapor (PW) is the medium for energy exchange, supplies moisture precipitation. Based on meteorological data PW from observation six reanalysis products, climate shift in (ASRNC) during 1980–2018 have been explored by applying reference scaling conversion efficiency The sets was overestimated spring, while underestimated summer, autumn, winter. However, spatial distribution simulated more consistent with topography ASRNC. From 1980–2018, context overall regional warming, likely to present significant increasing trends over high scaling. In general, increased 1980 2000, fluctuating upward trend intensified thereafter. Meanwhile, rates were remarkably 2000–2018. precipitation ASRNC greatly influenced efficiency, especially spring autumn. Generally, wet tendency identified western central because increase 2018.

Language: Английский

---

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Relationship Between the Summer Precipitation in the Arid Region of Northwest China With North African Subtropical High and Western Pacific Subtropical High

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The zonal movement of both the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) and North African (NASH) correlates well with summer precipitation in arid region Northwest China (ARNWC), but there is not enough understanding interdecadal change interannual relationship between position linkage two highs ARNWC under different backgrounds. Based on observed data at 101 stations ARNWC, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data, Hadley Centre surface sea temperature (SST) for 1961–2022, investigated. Results show that has experienced distinct periods (dry period: 1961–1986; wet 1987–2022), eastern part dry period Tarim Basin period, respectively. When NASH WPSH move opposite directions, water vapour directly (indirectly) transported from Asian monsoon (tropical Indo‐Pacific Ocean) (wet) period. Asian‐Pacific Oscillation (APO) warm pool contribute to only SST plays an important role modulating WPSH.

Language: Английский

---

Potential Impacts of the North Atlantic Horseshoe Pattern on China Compound Heat‐Humidity Extremes

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 26, 2025

ABSTRACT Compound heat‐humidity extremes (CHHEs) have gained significant attention as crucial indicators of heat stress. This research investigates the summer wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) to elucidate spatial variation CHHEs across China from 1961 2022. The results reveal a clear increase in CHHEs, with highest WBGT observed southeastern China, while increases are noted northwestern and northeastern regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis identifies three leading patterns: consistent increase, north (decreasing)–south (increasing) dipole, west (decreasing)–east dipole. Both observations model simulations indicate that North Atlantic Horseshoe (NAH) sea surface (SST) anomaly pattern is reliable predictor for via influencing Oscillation (NAO) modulating large‐scale circulations. combined westward extension Western Pacific Anomalous Anticyclone (WNPAC), leads rise particularly Central China. Regarding north–south air‐sea interactions driven by NAH reinforce negative phase Eurasian (EU) teleconnection through NAO, intensifying cyclonic anticyclonic anomalies over Mongolia northern southern respectively. Furthermore, during May–July effectively predicts dipole variations using genetic algorithm‐based evolving neural network. offers valuable insights predicting perspective SST anomalies.

Language: Английский

---