Cotton production areas are at high risk of invasion by Amrasca biguttula (Ishida) (Cicadellidae: Hemiptera): potential distribution under climate change

Pest Management Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 21, 2025

Abstract BACKGROUND The cotton jassid, Amrasca biguttula , a dangerous and polyphagous pest, has recently invaded the Middle East, Africa South America, raising concerns about future of other food crops including okra, eggplant potato. However, its potential distribution remains largely unknown, posing challenge in developing effective phytosanitary strategies. We used an ensemble model six machine‐learning algorithms random forest, maxent, support vector machines, classification regression tree, generalized linear boosted trees to forecast A. present using presence records pest bioclimatic predictors. accuracy these was assessed based on area under curve (AUC), correlation (COR), deviance true skill statistic (TSS). RESULTS All showed good performance forecasting (AUC ≥ 0.91, COR 0.72, TSS 0.77 ≤ 0.65). Mean temperature wettest quarter, mean driest quarter precipitation month were key variables that contributed predicting occurrence. Projection production areas Asia, sub‐Saharan Africa, America are at threat invasion by current climatic scenario. Additionally, range expansion for is projected China, indicating suitable ecological niche thrive. CONCLUSION Our results provide early warning decision‐making information can guide efforts prevent this pest's further spread into new areas. © 2025 Society Chemical Industry.

Language: Английский

Factors influencing the current and future distribution of the fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), in Ethiopia

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 18, 2024

Abstract The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), is among the key invasive pests attacking maize and sorghum, staple cereals in many countries Africa. determination of habitat suitability species via correlative model priority tasks that provide basic information for achieving sustainable plant protection. In this study, we developed a distribution S. identified influencing environmental factors under current future climatic conditions Ethiopia MaxEnt program. results showed area curve (AUC) simulated was 0.856 (±0.010), confirming good predictive ability model. isothermality precipitation driest month are most dominant bioclimatic variables with percentage contribution 39.4% 11.6%, respectively, percentages very highly suitable, moderately low‐suitable, unsuitable areas were 21.24%, 21.17%, 28.22%, 16.34% 13.03%, total Ethiopian land mass. From present to 2070s, suitable habitats will increase due global warming. This study noted pest major threat sorghum Ethiopia. Hence, emphasis should be given strengthening monitoring management range, which would lessen economic losses invasion ensure agricultural safety.

Language: Английский

Predicting the impact of climate change on the potential geographical distribution and growth index of mirid predator, Nesidiocoris tenuis (reuter) (Heteroptera: Miridae) using CLIMEX

Phytoparasitica, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 52(5)

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Language: Английский