Forecasting Drought Phenomena Using a Statistical and Machine Learning‐Based Analysis for the Central Anatolia Region, Turkey DOI Creative Commons
Murat Türkeş, Ozancan Özdemir, Ceylan Yozgatlıgil

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 30, 2024

ABSTRACT Drought is a major concern in Turkey, significantly affecting agriculture, water resources and the economy, especially Central Anatolia region with semiarid steppe dry‐sub‐humid climate. This study aims to develop an optimal forecasting model for Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) values over various periods (1–24 months) using data from 50 stations region. It compares statistical machine learning methods, finding that algorithms, particularly Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network, outperform approaches. The results show consistent increase drought severity highlight robust performance of top models across different SPEI periods. provides benchmark future research on underscores need effective mitigation adaptation strategies. incorporation advanced such as their comparison traditional methods potential more accurate adaptive models.

Language: Английский

Trends of meteorological and hydrological droughts and associated parameters using innovative approaches DOI
Ahmad Abu Arra, Sadık Alashan, Eyüp Şişman

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 640, P. 131661 - 131661

Published: July 17, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

11
Changes in precipitation and air temperature over Turkey using innovative trend pivot analysis method DOI Creative Commons
Ahmet Iyad Ceyhunlu, Gökmen Çeribaşı

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 2446 - 2463

Published: May 1, 2024

ABSTRACT This study aims to investigate variability in precipitation and air temperature data of all provinces Turkey. The Innovative Trend Pivot Analysis Method (ITPAM) was used analyze the trend (mm) (oC) Turkey this study. Analyzing country as a whole using method is one strengths 30-year sets between 1991 2020 were analyzed. As result study, analysis results 81 obtained. significance level trends determined 5%. Forty-one percent monthly total showed an increasing trend, 41% decreasing while 18% no In standard deviation data, 44% 42% 14% trend. Moreover, it concluded that there 67% average 46% data. According these results, has largely

Language: Английский

Citations

6
An Approach for Future Droughts in Northwest Türkiye: SPI and LSTM Methods DOI Open Access
Dilek Taylan

Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(16), P. 6905 - 6905

Published: Aug. 12, 2024

Predetermining the risk of possible future droughts enables proactive measures to be taken in key areas such as agriculture, water management, and food security. Through these predictions, governments, non-governmental organizations, farmers can develop water-saving strategies, encourage more efficient use water, minimize economic losses that may occur due drought. Thus, drought forecasts stand out a strategic planning tool for protection natural resources. To achieve this aim, forecasted conditions next decade (2024–2034) at nine meteorological stations Sakarya basin, located northwest Türkiye, are examined, using historical monthly precipitation data from 1991 2023. This study uses Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) deep learning methods investigate droughts. The research confirms compatibility reliability LSTM method forecasting by comparing SPI values’ correlograms trends. In addition, maps created visually represent spatial distribution most severe expected coming years, Basin determined. contributes limited literature on forward-looking provides valuable information long-term resource management region.

Language: Английский

Citations

4
Assessing the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Drought in Uzbekistan: Findings from RCP and SSP Scenarios DOI Creative Commons

Natella Rakhmatova,

Bakhriddin Nishonov, Bakhtiyar M. Kholmatjanov

et al.

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(7), P. 866 - 866

Published: July 22, 2024

Future climate change and its impact on drought is critical for Uzbekistan, located in Central Asia, the world’s largest arid zone. This study examines evolving intensity of events using multi-model ensembles (MMEs) derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 6 (CMIP5 CMIP6) simulated under Representative Concentration Pathway Shared Socioeconomic (RCP SSP) scenarios. The projections show different rates increase temperature precipitation RCPs SSPs. Projected increases are expected to reach up 2–2.5 °C SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, by mid-century. By 2080–2099, an projected 2–3 monthly mean temperatures throughout year (SSP1-2.6), a more pronounced summer 3–4 (SSP2-4.5) 4–6 (SSP3-7.0), with marked contrast conditions between mountainous desert regions Uzbekistan. Regional changes over periods relatively little variability, except FD, where notable trends found. Under SSP1-2.6 modest, whereas SSP3-7.0 substantial, some experiencing variations 10–20 mm per period. Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), calculated based precipitation, provides estimate future trends. Our results increasing aridity all scenarios mid-century, longer-term indicating stabilization around SPEI values 2100: RCP2.6 SSP1-1.9 stabilize −1.0; RCP4.5, RCP6.0, −1.5; while RCP8.5 SSP5-8.5 project −2 or less 2100. Notable differences index found lowland foothill regions. In view Uzbekistan’s heavy reliance agriculture irrigation, which sectors that be mostly affected change, our scientific basis informed policy decision-making. includes various aspects such as planning management water resources, well broader socioeconomic development country.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Drought monitoring and trends using innovative methods in Sakarya Basin, Türkiye DOI
İslam Yaşa, Turgay Partal

Hydrological Sciences Journal, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 18, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Climate Change as a Double-Edged Sword: Exploring the Potential of Environmental Recovery to Foster Stability in Darfur, Sudan DOI Open Access
Abdalrahman Ahmed, Brian Rotich, Kornél Czimber

et al.

Climate, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13(3), P. 63 - 63

Published: March 18, 2025

The Darfur conflict, which emerged in the early 21st century, represents a multifaceted crisis driven by socio-political and environmental factors, with resource scarcity, exacerbated climate change, playing pivotal role intensifying tensions between agricultural pastoral communities. While change is typically associated adverse outcomes, an analysis of data spanning four decades (1980–2023) reveals contrasting trend increased precipitation, enhanced vegetation, decreased drought frequency recent years. This research explores potential these positive changes to mitigate resource-based conflicts foster political stability as improved conditions are posited create foundation for conflict resolution sustainable peacebuilding. present study integrates trends Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI) examine shifts. EVI data, derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 250 m resolution, was used assess large-scale vegetation patterns arid semi-arid landscapes. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model employed forecast future precipitation scenarios up year 2034, enhancing understanding long-term climatic trends. Data processing utilized advanced tools, including Google Earth Engine (GEE), ArcGIS Pro (version 3.4), R software 4.3.2). findings reveal significant (33.19%) improvement natural cover 2000 2023, degraded unchanged areas accounting 1.95% 64.86%, respectively. finding aligns marked increase annual reduction intensity over period. Historical SPEI showed persistent events 1980 2012, followed notable decline severity 2013 2024. projections suggest stable trend, potentially supporting further recovery region. These improvements preliminarily linked climate-change-induced increases reductions severity. study’s contribute nuanced interplay dynamics Darfur, offering actionable insights policy interventions aimed fostering peace resilience

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Integration of the analytic hierarchy process and Monte Carlo feature selection for a spatiotemporal weighting scheme in meteorological drought monitoring DOI Creative Commons
Muhammad Hamza, Rizwan Niaz,

Ibrahim A. Nafisah

et al.

Geocarto International, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 40(1)

Published: March 28, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Severe and extreme climatic drought in Iraq: past and present DOI

Salar Ali Khidher

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156(4)

Published: March 27, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Hydroclimatic drought trends and change point detection in the Yeşilirmak basin: a comprehensive evaluation using SPI, SPEI, DMI indices and ITA, SQMK, IPTA approaches DOI

Meva Nur Öllükçü,

Okan Mert Katipoğlu

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 156(5)

Published: April 30, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Spatiotemporal Variations of Meteorological Drought in Türkiye and Its Linkage With Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulation DOI Creative Commons
Hakki Baltaci,

Sevda Merve Alyagut,

Maria Cristina Lemos da Silva

et al.

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 9, 2025

ABSTRACT In this study, long‐term variations of dry and wet events, large‐scale atmospheric circulation mechanisms triggering drought conditions are investigated for Türkiye. For purpose, meteorological data 92 stations used the period 1965–2020. conditions, 0.5° × monthly gridded values Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI‐1 month) 1903–2022. Later, role North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR) patterns on regional dry/wet seasons is investigated. Synoptic causing extreme events in Aegean Region (AR) Türkiye examined using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data. According to main results, statistically significant negative trends SPEI‐1 month observed, especially western southern (Mediterranean: MeR Southeastern Anatolia: SEAR) regions during winter summer seasons. Additionally, we have found that temperature increments lead more frequent summertime these regions, particularly July (correlation coefficient [ r ] results −0.58, −0.60 − 0.61 AR, SEAR, respectively). The impact NAO months. During positive phases Azores surface high located over eastern Mediterranean Basin causes blockage, resulting severe (precipitation AR 60% less than normal 1.5°C below normal). Conversely, (−) phases, light northerly winds transfer air from northern terrestrial as a result interaction between expanded Asiatic monsoon low. Prolonged above‐normal temperatures at low levels atmosphere intense (AR 1.2°C above study can help managers understand occurrence cope with by reducing impacts different sectors.

Language: Английский

Citations

0