Modeling Climate Change Indicates Potential Shifts in the Global Distribution of Orchardgrass DOI Creative Commons
Jiqiang Wu, Lijun Yan, Junming Zhao

et al.

Agronomy, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(8), P. 1985 - 1985

Published: July 27, 2023

Orchardgrass (Dactylis glomerata L.) is highly tolerant of shade, cold, and overwintering, making it an ideal species for grassland ecological restoration livestock production. However, the genetic diversity orchardgrass may be threatened by climate change. Using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model with BCC-CSM2-MR global database Harmonized World Soil Database, we projected current future distribution suitable areas globally. The predicted thresholds vital environmental factors were determined to temperature seasonality range 411.50–1034.37 °C, mean diurnal −0.88–10.69 maximum warmest month 22.21–35.45 precipitation coldest quarter 116.56–825.40 mm. A AUC values from 0.914 0.922, indicating accuracy prediction model. Our results indicate that total area habitats was estimated 2133.01 × 104 km2, dispersed unevenly over six continents. Additionally, increased in higher latitudes while decreasing lower as greenhouse gas emissions increased. Therefore, efforts should made save places southern hemisphere are danger becoming unsuitable, possibility using northern America, China, Europe conservation extensive farming.

Language: Английский

Potential Distribution Prediction of Terminalia chebula Retz. in China Under Current and Future Climate Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Zhanghong Dong, Hua Jiang, Wei Zhang

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(2)

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

ABSTRACT Climate change in the future could potentially expand, shrink, or alter habitats of numerous species, leading to changes their spatial distributions. Predicting suitable areas for cultivating medicinal plants through modeling has become an effective tool assessing site suitability and conserving plant resources. Utilizing GIS MaxEnt model, we predicted distribution Terminalia chebula Retz. China current (2050s 2070s) under RCP4.5 RCP8.5 representative concentration pathways. In this study, utilized 73 occurrence records incorporated eight environmental factors from WorldClim process. The findings revealed that evaluation model's performance was based on area curve (AUC) receiver operating characteristic (ROC). All AUC values exceeded 0.9, classifying these models as “Excellent.” Additionally, jackknife test analysis main influential variables were bio11 bio4. Under present climate conditions, estimated total habitat T. is approximately 29.14 × 10 4 km 2 , representing around 2.78% China's land area. Within regions, high suitability, medium low make up 0.39%, 0.54%, 1.85% area, respectively. According climate, potential growth range expected expand due variability, showing a significant pattern expansion towards north east within China. 2050s 2070s, regions with will increase compared distribution. This study provide theoretical suggestions preservation, management, sustainable utilization

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Construction of Multi-level Ecological Corridor System for National Parks: A Case Study of the Proposed Nanling National Park DOI Creative Commons
Yi Deng, Zhenghua Huang, Zeyu Mao

et al.

Landscape Architecture, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 32(2), P. 43 - 53

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Adaptive Distribution and Priority Protection of Endangered Species Cycas balansae DOI Creative Commons
Huayong Zhang, Yanxia Zhou, Shijia Zhang

et al.

Plants, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 815 - 815

Published: March 5, 2025

As an endangered species, the habitat of Cycas balansae (C. balansae) is subject to a variety impacts, including climate change and human activities, exploring its adaptive distribution conservation areas under such conditions crucial protecting ecological security species. In this study, we used MaxEnt model Marxan v4.0.6 systematically evaluate priority protection species C. balansae. The results showed that concentrated in Xishuangbanna surrounding zones southern Yunnan Province. main factors affecting were temperature seasonality, mean coldest quarter, isothermality, precipitation warmest among which was dominant factor. Under different scenarios future, area slight decrease, northward migration trend. future pattern closely related seasonality quarter. addition, influence anthropogenic disturbances on cannot be ignored. Currently, there large range vacancies for balansae, it recommended Simao City as area. This study provides new insights determining strategies

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Integrative Analysis of Diphasiastrum digitatum Holub: Unveiling Genetic Variation and Ecological Adaptations for Sustainable Ecosystem Management DOI Creative Commons
Marcin Nowicki, Logan C. Houston, Sarah L. Boggess

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(3)

Published: March 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Understanding the diversity and ecological evolutionary history of plant species is crucial for addressing current biodiversity crisis comprehending processes by which organisms fill geographic spaces. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis Diphasiastrum digitatum Holub from lycophyte lineage plants, using microsatellite genotyping data biogeographic analyses. Based on available transcriptome assembly, generated numerous markers utilized 13 robust to genotype collection 402 specimens Eastern US (VT; VA; NC; TN). accordance with accepted phylogeny, cross‐amplification tests demonstrated closer relationship between D. spp. compared Lycopodium Furthermore, population genetics analyses identified two genetic clusters within suggested ongoing divergence expansion. Isolation‐by‐distance indicated that distance had minimal effect differentiation, whereas environmental variables related water regime were strongly associated variance. Ecological niche modeling showed post‐Last Glacial Maximum expansion southern refugia, corroborating similar scenario based our data. Overall, study provides valuable insights into clubmosses highlights migration events factors shaped their distribution.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Habitat suitability and influencing factors of a threatened highland flagship species, the Black-necked Crane (Grus nigricollis) DOI Creative Commons

Hongying Xu,

Ru Jia,

H. Lv

et al.

Avian Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100243 - 100243

Published: March 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Habitat Distribution of Metasequoia glyptostroboides DOI Creative Commons
Ming Li,

Yu Sun,

Yongsheng Yang

et al.

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(4)

Published: April 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Extensive evidence supports that global climate change influences shifts in species habitats due to alterations hydrothermal conditions; however, neglecting dispersal capacities and limits significantly heightens uncertainties regarding spatial distribution patterns among different organisms. In this study, we compared the of Metasequoia glyptostroboides Hu & W.C. Cheng ( M. ) current Anthropocene context a climate‐only context, providing new insights into effects change, potential, barriers on habitat changes for . By utilizing optimized MaxEnt MigClim models, predicted Mid‐Holocene (MH) conditions potential colonizable under three emission scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585) both medium long term. We also assessed variation differences future warm‐wet context. The results revealed (1) Precipitation driest month (BIO14), Mean diurnal range (Bio2) human footprint (HFP) are primary factors influencing expansion or contraction Human footprint, farmland, roads, construction land main contributors loss fragmentation. (2) Habitats expected experience significant future. There is recovery South China SSP126 scenario, but activities may hinder recovery. Moderate intervention necessary regions, such as Hubei, Hunan, Anhui, Sichuan basins. (3) Due influence, high‐suitability areas projected migrate northeastward. Under trend reverse migration be observed This study minimizes uncertainty predicting while theoretical support conservation

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Assessing the potential global distribution of Monochamus sutor (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) under the influence of climate change and human activities based on Maximum Entropy model DOI
Liang Zhang,

Chaokun Yang,

Ping Wang

et al.

Journal of Economic Entomology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 11, 2025

Abstract Monochamus sutor, an important phytophagous pest, is a known vector insect of Bursaphelenchus mucronatus in addition to feeding directly on trees. Although B. causes relatively minor damage European and Asian forests, its threat coniferous forests similar that xylophilus. Given xylophilus evolved into destructive pathogen after introduction Asia, may also pose potential North American forests. Therefore, we assessed the global distributions areas M. sutor their relative dynamics under different climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) current (i. considering only bioclimatic factors; ii. including anthropogenic factors) future (2050s 2070s) using optimized Maximum Entropy ecological niche model. The mean area curve value model was greater than 0.86 true skill statistic 0.79. Potentially suitable habitat for driven by combination temperature (Bio1 Bio2), precipitation (Bio14, Bio15, Bio18), human activities. In period, are concentrated Europe, East America, smaller presence disturbance factors alone. At same time, scenarios, range will always expand more contract, with projected increase 1,329.02 1,798.23 × 104 km2 compared time especially spread toward Canada United States America America. present study provides insights risks which help guide decision-making pest control as well forest conservation.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Prediction of the Future Evolution Trends of Prunus sibirica in China Based on the Key Climate Factors Using MaxEnt Modeling DOI Creative Commons
Jiazhi Wang, Jiming Cheng, Chao Zhang

et al.

Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 13(12), P. 973 - 973

Published: Nov. 25, 2024

Mountain apricot (Prunus sibirica) is an important fruit tree variety, and has a wide range of planting application value in China even the world. However, current research on suitable distribution area P. sibirica still inconclusive. In this study, we retrieved data for from Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), identified six key environmental factors influencing its through cluster analysis. Using these selected climate points China, applied maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate 1160 candidate models parameter optimization. The final results predict potential under as well two future scenarios (SSPs126 SSPs585). This study shows that optimized with (AUC = 0.897, TSS 0.658) outperforms full using nineteen 0.894, 0.592). Under high-emission scenario (SSPs585), highly habitat expected gradually shrink towards southeast northwest, while expanding northeast southwest. After 2050s, habitats are projected completely disappear Shandong, new areas may emerge Tibet. Additionally, total increase future, more significant expansion (SSPs585) compared low-emission (SSPs126) (7.33% vs. 0.16%). Seasonal changes precipitation most influential factor driving sibirica.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Evaluation of Suitable Habitats for Birds Based on MaxEnt and Google Earth Engine—A Case Study of Baer’s Pochard (Aythya baeri) in Baiyangdian, China DOI Creative Commons
Zengrui Tian, Da Huo, Kunpeng Yi

et al.

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(1), P. 64 - 64

Published: Dec. 23, 2023

The combined impacts of rapid urbanization and climate change pose significant threats to global biodiversity. To counter these threats, the establishment appropriate habitats is becoming pivotal for species preservation. Due positive ecological interventions, Baer’s Pochard (Aythya baeri), a critically endangered avian per International Union Conservation Nature (IUCN) classification, has made remarkable resurgence in wetlands Baiyangdian (BYD). BYD, located Xiong’an New Area, central North China, largest wetland an ideal habitat rare bird species. Our study focuses on identifying within BYD further its conservation. this end, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) integrated with GPS functionalities were utilized collect occurrence data Furthermore, Google Earth Engine (GEE) provided access high-resolution, real-time satellite imagery. model exhibited substantial reliability, reflected by area under curve (AUC) values 0.917 0.934 breeding migration periods, respectively. During phase, prime spans 162 km2, predominantly encompassing regions like Xiaobaiyangdian (XBYD), Zhaozadian (ZZD), Damaidian (DMD), Shaochedian (SCD). Factors such as Distance towns Landcover influence selection. In covered expanse 124 highlighting areas northern eastern SCD, northwestern side Datian Village (DTV) Beitian (BTV) Fuhe Wetland (FHW), Xiaoyihe (XYHW). predominant determinants are Wetness. These insights offer fundamental foundation conservation management strategies presenting roadmap future endeavors.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Predicting the Potential Distribution of Cheirotonus jansoni (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) Under Climate Change DOI Creative Commons
Yali Yu, Zeng Ling

Insects, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 1012 - 1012

Published: Dec. 20, 2024

Cheirotonus jansoni (Jordan, 1898), a beetle species of ecological and ornamental significance, is predominantly found in southern China. With limited dispersal ability, it classified as Class 2 protected In this study, the widely employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model ensemble Biomod2 were applied to simulate C. habitat suitability China under current environmental conditions based on available distribution data multiple variables. The optimized MaxEnt demonstrated improved accuracy robust predictive capabilities, making preferred choice for simulating dynamic changes potentially suitable habitats future climate scenarios. Protection gaps further identified through analyses overlap between nature reserves highly areas jansoni. established models indicated that primarily resides southeastern mountainous regions below 2000 m, with altitude 1000–2000 m. Future scenarios suggest reduction overall an increase temperature, underscoring urgent need enhanced conservation efforts species.

Language: Английский

Citations

2