Trouble on the horizon: anticipating biological invasions through futures thinking DOI Creative Commons
Philip E. Hulme

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 23, 2024

Anticipating future biosecurity threats to prevent their occurrence is the most cost-effective strategy manage invasive alien species. Yet, biological invasions are complex, highly uncertain processes. High uncertainty drives decision-making away from strategic preventative measures and towards operational outcomes aimed at post-invasion management. The limited success of in curbing reflects this short-term mindset decision-makers should instead apply foresight imagine futures where minimised. Here, four major thinking tools (environmental scanning, driver-mapping, horizon scenario planning) that describe probable, possible, plausible preferable assessed terms potential support both research policy addressing invasions. Environmental scanning involves surveying existing data sources detect signals emerging species through knowledge changes either likelihood or consequences Several approaches widely used for including automated scans digital media, consensus-based expert scoring, prediction markets. Automated systems can be poor detecting weak because large volume 'noise' they generate while scoring relies on prior so fails identify unknown unknowns which also true markets work well quite specific known risks. Driver-mapping uses consensus political, economic, societal, technological, legislative, environmental forces shaping a critical component has rarely been applied Considerable exists extend approach develop system maps interventions may effective explore driver complexes determine megatrends Horizon systematic outlook developments issues exist margins current thinking. Applications have strongly focused related technological challenges relevant invasion science. However, these already current-day research. Because based consensus, it needs embrace diversity cultural, gender, disciplinary more adequately ensure participants think intuitively outside own subject boundaries. Scenario planning constructs storylines alternative ways social, situation might future. Biological favoured structured such as standardised archetypes matrices, but scope intuitive by using incasting, backcasting, causal layered analysis. Futures not engaged with other stakeholders thus light management priorities. To date, each isolation. an integrated diverse set exploring plausible, relating crucial delivery national global scales.

Language: Английский

Biological invasions in forest ecosystems DOI
Andrew M. Liebhold, Eckehard G. Brockerhoff, Susan Kalisz

et al.

Biological Invasions, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 19(11), P. 3437 - 3458

Published: Sept. 2, 2017

Language: Английский

Citations

211

Economic costs of biological invasions in the United States DOI Creative Commons
Jean Fantle‐Lepczyk, Phillip J. Haubrock, Andrew M. Kramer

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 806, P. 151318 - 151318

Published: Oct. 29, 2021

The United States has thousands of invasive species, representing a sizable, but unknown burden to the national economy. Given potential economic repercussions quantifying these costs is paramount importance both for economies and invasion management. Here, we used novel global database (InvaCost) quantify overall species in across spatiotemporal, taxonomic, socioeconomic scales. From 1960 2020, reported totaled $4.52 trillion (USD 2017). Considering only observed, highly reliable costs, this total cost reached $1.22 with an average annual $19.94 billion/year. These increased from $2.00 billion annually between 1969 $21.08 2010 2020. Most (73%) were related resource damages losses ($896.22 billion), as opposed management expenditures ($46.54 billion). Moreover, majority invaders terrestrial habitats ($643.51 billion, 53%) agriculture was most impacted sector ($509.55 taxonomic perspective, mammals ($234.71 billion) insects ($126.42 groups responsible greatest costs. apparent rising invasions, coupled increasing numbers current lack information known invaders, our findings provide critical policymakers managers.

Language: Английский

Citations

124

Managing biological invasions: the cost of inaction DOI Creative Commons
Danish A. Ahmed, Emma J. Hudgins, Ross N. Cuthbert

et al.

Biological Invasions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 24(7), P. 1927 - 1946

Published: March 18, 2022

Abstract Ecological and socioeconomic impacts from biological invasions are rapidly escalating worldwide. While effective management underpins impact mitigation, such actions often delayed, insufficient or entirely absent. Presently, delays emanate a lack of monetary rationale to invest at early invasion stages, which precludes prevention eradication. Here, we provide by developing conceptual model quantify the cost inaction, i.e., additional expenditure due delayed management, under varying time efficiencies. Further, apply damage data relatively data-rich genus ( Aedes mosquitoes). Our demonstrates that rapid interventions following drastically minimise costs. We also identify key points in differentiate among scenarios timely, severely intervention. Any action during phase results substantial losses $$( > 50\%$$ (>50% potential maximum loss). For spp., estimate existing delay 55 years led an total approximately $ 4.57 billion (14% cost), compared scenario with only seven prior (< 1% cost). Moreover, absence action, long-term would have accumulated US$ 32.31 billion, more than times observed inaction cost. These highlight need for timely invasive alien species—either pre-invasion, as soon possible after detection—by demonstrating how investments reduce economic impacts.

Language: Английский

Citations

97

The economic benefits of invasive species management DOI Creative Commons
Nick Hanley, Michaela Roberts

People and Nature, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 1(2), P. 124 - 137

Published: June 1, 2019

Abstract Invasive species are known to cause significant negative impacts ecosystems and people. In this paper, we outline the nature of these economic impacts, then present a range approaches for estimating costs invasive (including on biodiversity), thus benefits management programmes. The importance thinking clearly about most appropriate context valuation is stressed. We provide examples application non‐market management, show how such methods can be used measure public preferences over control undertaken. discuss some important problems in applying context. A plain language summary available article.

Language: Английский

Citations

124

Endophytes vs tree pathogens and pests: can they be used as biological control agents to improve tree health? DOI Creative Commons
Mojgan Rabiey, Luke Hailey, Shyamali Roy

et al.

European Journal of Plant Pathology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 155(3), P. 711 - 729

Published: Aug. 13, 2019

Like all other plants, trees are vulnerable to attack by a multitude of pests and pathogens. Current control measures for many these diseases limited relatively ineffective. Several methods, including the use conventional synthetic agro-chemicals, employed reduce impact diseases. However, because mounting concerns about adverse effects on environment variety economic reasons, this management tree chemical methods is losing ground. The biological control, as more environmentally friendly alternative, becoming increasingly popular in plant protection. This can include deployment soil inoculants foliar sprays, but increased knowledge microbial ecology phytosphere, particular phylloplane microbes endophytes, has stimulated new thinking biocontrol approaches. Endophytes that live within tissues. As such, they hold potential agents against able colonize same ecological niche favoured invading development exploitation endophytes will have overcome numerous challenges. optimization improvement strategies endophyte research contribute towards discovering effective competent agents. genotype selecting potentially beneficial exploitable poorly understood. How synergise or antagonise one another also an important factor. review focusses recent addressing using endophytic fungi bacteria, alongside challenges limitations encountered how be overcome. We frame context diseases, since arguably most difficult species study, work manage, yet represent organisms Earth.

Language: Английский

Citations

117

The relationship between invader abundance and impact DOI Creative Commons
Helen R. Sofaer, Catherine S. Jarnevich, Ian S. Pearse

et al.

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 9(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2018

Abstract The impacts of invasive species generally increase with their abundance, but the form invader abundance–impact relationships remain poorly described. We highlight utility curves for three questions. First, can clarify whether prevention and management should focus on likely to become abundant or those cause large per individual. Second, comparing between native exotic reveal any systematic differences in effects ecological systems. Third, identifying thresholds relationship impact abundance be used select targets design control strategies. With increasing extent resolution datasets organisms worldwide, we now have opportunity explore detail context dependence relationship. Doing so provides opportunities improve prediction impact, better understand resident organisms, scale from localities ranges.

Language: Английский

Citations

93

Economic costs of biological invasions within North America DOI Creative Commons
Robert Crystal‐Ornelas, Emma J. Hudgins, Ross N. Cuthbert

et al.

NeoBiota, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 67, P. 485 - 510

Published: July 29, 2021

Invasive species can have severe impacts on ecosystems, economies, and human health. Though the economic of invasions provide important foundations for management policy, up-to-date syntheses these are lacking. To produce most comprehensive estimate invasive costs within North America (including Greater Antilles) to date, we synthesized impact data from recently published InvaCost database. Here, report that cost American economy at least US$ 1.26 trillion between 1960 2017. Economic climbed over recent decades, averaging 2 billion per year in early 1960s 26 2010s. Of countries America, United States (US) had highest recorded costs, even after controlling research effort each country ($5.81 source US). taxa habitats could be classified our database, vertebrates were associated with greatest terrestrial incurring monetary impacts. In particular, cumulatively (from 1960–2017) agriculture forestry sectors 527.07 34.93 billion, respectively. Reporting issues (e.g., quality or taxonomic granularity) prevented us synthesizing all available studies. Furthermore, very few known reported costs. Therefore, while massive, is likely conservative. Accordingly, expanded more rigorous reports necessary invasion estimates, then support data-based decisions actions towards invasions.

Language: Английский

Citations

90

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MULTICRITERIA DECISION-MAKING METHODS EVALUATING THE EFFICIENCY OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER DOI Creative Commons

Lidija Kraujalienė

Business Management and Education, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 17(0), P. 72 - 93

Published: Aug. 20, 2019

Purpose – to find appropriate tools measure the efficiency of technology transfer process (TTP) in higher education institutions (HEIs). Scientific problem is a lack methods measuring TTP. The objective comparative analysis evaluation methods. Research methodology research based on papers advantages and disadvantages suitable evaluate Findings among some tools, FARE highlighted for identifying variables TTP assigning their weights, when TOPSIS rank identify most important. MULTO-MOORA COPRAS with ranking abilities are select number HEIs. DEA method intended economic social sciences strengthened by founded limitations this paper providing all (limitations) decision-making multicriteria Practical implications original structure enabling stakeholders (HEIs, TTOs public authorities) efficient allocation an organisation’s financial resources, foresee future goals improving Originality/Value framework incorporated into one model, related allocate resources efficiently.

Language: Английский

Citations

76

Invasive alien species as simultaneous benefits and burdens: trends, stakeholder perceptions and management DOI
Melina Kourantidou, Phillip J. Haubrock, Ross N. Cuthbert

et al.

Biological Invasions, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 24(7), P. 1905 - 1926

Published: Jan. 12, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

49

Forest Insect Biosecurity: Processes, Patterns, Predictions, Pitfalls DOI Creative Commons
Helen F. Nahrung, Andrew M. Liebhold, Eckehard G. Brockerhoff

et al.

Annual Review of Entomology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 68(1), P. 211 - 229

Published: Oct. 6, 2022

The economic and environmental threats posed by non-native forest insects are ever increasing with the continuing globalization of trade travel; thus, need for mitigation through effective biosecurity is greater than ever. However, despite decades research implementation preborder, border, postborder preventative measures, insect invasions continue to occur, no evidence saturation, even predicted accelerate. In this article, we review measures used mitigate arrival, establishment, spread, impacts possible impediments successful these measures. Biosecurity successes likely under-recognized because they difficult detect quantify, whereas failures more evident in continued establishment additional species. There limitations existing systems at global country scales (for example, inspecting all imports impossible, phytosanitary perfect, knownunknowns cannot be regulated against, noncompliance an ongoing problem). should a shared responsibility across countries, governments, stakeholders, individuals.

Language: Английский

Citations

41