High‐resolution CMIP6 analysis highlights emerging climate challenges in alpine and Tibetan Tundra zones DOI Creative Commons
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Iulii Didovets

et al.

Meteorological Applications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 31(5)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract We employ a high‐resolution Köppen climate classification dataset to examine shifts in Tundra zones within the Alps and Asia. Our analysis shows substantial reductions areas by mid‐21st century under different Shared. Socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5). Tibetan Plateau are crucial for their unique climates role as water reservoirs. Characterized short, mild summers long, severe winters, these vital glaciers perennial snow. The projected instability may significantly reduce alpine snow cover mid‐century with irreversible consequences. A 2°C temperature increase from 1981–2010 baseline could eliminate it over 70% This is particularly concerning given that rivers sustain nearly 40% of global population.

Language: Английский

Aeolus 2.0's thermal rotating shallow water model: A new paradigm for simulating extreme heatwaves, westerly jet intensification, and more DOI
Masoud Rostami, Stefan Petri, Bijan Fallah

et al.

Physics of Fluids, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 37(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

In this study, we demonstrate the dynamical core and applicability of Aeolus 2.0, a moist-convective thermal rotating shallow water model intermediate complexity, along with its novel bulk aerodynamic schemes, in capturing effects increased radiative forcing on zonal winds heatwaves. Simulations reveal seasonal patterns wind, temperature, energy anomalies under during summer solstice, winter equinoxes. Increased enhances mid-latitudinal temperatures solstice Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere, leading to wind velocity affected hemisphere, especially subtropics, while decreasing it opposite hemisphere. This also reduces polar cyclones hemisphere experiencing forcing. During autumn equinox, diminishes similar reduction occurs spring equinox. Heightened meridional gradients significantly influence poleward displacement atmospheric circulation, particularly (northward) (southward) solstices. Poleward eddy heat fluxes persist across hemispheres, indicating consistent response external heating. solstices amplifies prolonged heatwaves land ocean, exceeding impacts observed

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Impact of Carbon Neutrality Goals on China’s Coal Industry: Mechanisms and Evidence DOI Creative Commons
Shihua Ren, Xiaomiao Jiao, Dezhi Zheng

et al.

Energies, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(7), P. 1672 - 1672

Published: March 27, 2025

China’s coal industry is reckoned as one of the topmost contributors to global carbon emissions, and a result, poses severe challenges both human health climate change mitigation efforts. Achieving neutrality requires thorough analyses mechanisms driving sector’s transition. This study employs structural model investigate transmission pathways through/by which “dual carbon” goals influence industry, using policy text quantification approach assess specific reduction measures. Findings reveal that impact target on operates through multiple pathways. Carbon policies significantly enhance technical advancements, social economic factors, energy-saving measures, alternative energy development, all indirectly affect supply. Notably, pathway from demand supply shows high path coefficient 1.121, far surpassing factor input supply, measured at 0.169. highlights pivotal intermediary variable in determining target’s industry. While current technologies sources have limited immediate effects they hold significant potential transformative factors future.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Unveiling meteorological synergies in the coupling of an abnormal easterly wave and cutoff low in South Africa's February 2023 rainfall DOI Creative Commons
Farahnaz Fazel‐Rastgar, Venkataraman Sivakumar, Masoud Rostami

et al.

Meteorological Applications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 32(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract This study seeks to understand the meteorological mechanisms that caused widespread and heavy rainfall from 6 14 February 2023, over southern Mozambique eastern northeastern areas in South Africa, including Limpopo Province, Mpumalanga Province northern KwaZulu‐Natal, by examining different outputs reanalysis datasets. The had a substantial hydrological impact, leading significant flooding disruptions. research revealed slow‐moving cutoff low (COL) system remained central parts of triggering extensive mostly provinces. outcomes datasets display influence weather interaction between an initiated westerly wave, which converted into near‐stationary upper‐air cold core upper air COL system, easterly wind wave associated with Indian Ocean Convergence Zone (SICZ), bringing warm humid area. abnormal structural pattern vectors, low‐pressure trough, mid‐tropospheric flows humidity compared long‐term climate normal values regions Africa. event is exciting perspective due its intensity duration, involvement cyclonic activity implications for understanding impacts change on patterns disruptions, providing valuable data improving forecasting models disaster preparedness strategies underscoring importance enhancing resilience prone extreme weather.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Climate model downscaling in central Asia: a dynamical and a neural network approach DOI Creative Commons
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Emmanuele Russo

et al.

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 18(1), P. 161 - 180

Published: Jan. 15, 2025

Abstract. High-resolution climate projections are essential for estimating future change impacts. Statistical and dynamical downscaling methods, or a hybrid of both, commonly employed to generate input datasets impact modelling. In this study, we employ COSMO-CLM (CCLM) version 6.0, regional model, explore the benefits dynamically general circulation model (GCM) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), focusing on central Asia (CA). The CCLM, at 0.22° horizontal resolution, is driven by MPI-ESM1-2-HR GCM (at 1° spatial resolution) historical period 1985–2014 projection 2019–2100 under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Using Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) gridded observation dataset as reference, evaluate performance CCLM ERA-Interim reanalysis over period. added value compared its driving GCM, evident mountainous areas in CA, which higher risk extreme precipitation events. mean absolute error bias climatological (mm d−1) reduced 5 mm d−1 summer 3 annual values. For winter, there was no reduction achieved. However, frequency values improved simulations. Additionally, refine projections. We present high-resolution maps heavy changes based compare them CMIP6 ensemble. Our analysis indicates an increase intensity events CA already climatic end century. number days exceeding 20 increases more than 90 century, reference period, SSP3-7.0 99th percentile total 9 relative Finally, train convolutional neural network (CNN) map simulation downscaled counterpart. CNN successfully emulates GCM–CCLM chain large but shows skill when applied different chain. scientific community interested models could use our data, architecture offers alternative traditional statistical methods.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Torrential rainfall with severe flooding associated with a baroclinic disturbance on November 17, 2023, United Arab Emirates (UAE) DOI Creative Commons
Farahnaz Fazel‐Rastgar, Masoud Rostami, Bijan Fallah

et al.

International Journal of River Basin Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 1 - 10

Published: Feb. 11, 2025

This work examines a severe weather event caused by baroclinic disturbance with heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, which struck parts of the UAE major flooding on November 17, 2023. A low-pressure trough extending from Red Sea Trough (RST) towards Eastern Mediterranean (EM) led to extreme flooding. The unique intensity this was correlated mid-latitude amplification even in middle upper tropospheric produced RST. During rain event, two intense moisture sources were injected into region: one Indian Ocean, carried southeasterly near-surface winds at 10m, other Equatorial Africa, transported mid-tropospheric level. significant temperature gradient ~8 °C difference surface temperatures, particularly between northern areas contrast southern regions, wind shear formation over study area initiated baroclinicity structure borderlines cold front thunderstorms. findings also revealed an abnormal westerly jet stream intensification 200 hPa, associated negative meridional anomaly, signaling stretching Rossby wave during

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Impact attribution: exploring the contribution of climate change to recent trends in hydrological processes—an editorial introduction DOI Creative Commons
Fred F. Hattermann, Valentina Krysanova

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 177(12)

Published: Nov. 26, 2024

Abstract The world is already in the midst of climate change and, addition to preventing further change, it fundamental interest analyse existing impacts and implement appropriate adaptation measures. To this end, important distinguish influences human management land use from pure effects change. However, attribution hydrology still its infancy, aim collection with total 9 articles contribute a better understanding underlying methods on one hand, quantify recent consequences for hydrological processes other. trends mean annual discharge was possible 42% 97 selected river basins three continents investigated, mostly pointing positive streamflow: Norway, northern Russia, Kazakhstan, western China Lake Victoria basin. Negative streamflow attributable were detected Blue Nile Main Nile, Central South Asia Selenga river.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
High‐resolution CMIP6 analysis highlights emerging climate challenges in alpine and Tibetan Tundra zones DOI Creative Commons
Bijan Fallah, Masoud Rostami, Iulii Didovets

et al.

Meteorological Applications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 31(5)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract We employ a high‐resolution Köppen climate classification dataset to examine shifts in Tundra zones within the Alps and Asia. Our analysis shows substantial reductions areas by mid‐21st century under different Shared. Socioeconomic pathways (SSP1‐2.6, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5). Tibetan Plateau are crucial for their unique climates role as water reservoirs. Characterized short, mild summers long, severe winters, these vital glaciers perennial snow. The projected instability may significantly reduce alpine snow cover mid‐century with irreversible consequences. A 2°C temperature increase from 1981–2010 baseline could eliminate it over 70% This is particularly concerning given that rivers sustain nearly 40% of global population.

Language: Английский

Citations

0