Predicting suitable habitats of parasitic desert species based on Biomod2 ensemble model: Cynomorium songaricum rupr and its host plants as an example

BMC Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: March 18, 2025

As a species of considerable medicinal, ecological, and economic significance, the protection C. songaricum its host plants is paramount importance. Biodiversity patterns distribution are profoundly influenced by climate change. Understanding adaptive mechanisms organisms in response to these changes essential for effective conservation. However, there currently limited information available on simulating habitat suitability assessing key environmental factors associated with parasite using niche models. This study utilized data analyze shifts geographic range under current projected future scenarios Biomod2 platform, which integrates multiple individual models into an ensemble framework. Additionally, quantified variables influencing observed patterns. The potential geographical overlapping areas primarily concentrated Asia North America. Under all four within two timeframes (2041–2060 2061–2080), overall suitable songaricum, Nitraria tangutorum Bobr., N. sphaerocarpa Maxim., Peganum multisectum (Maxim.) Bobrov expected decrease compared climatic conditions. Conversely, total area Kalidium foliatum (Pall.) Moq., sibirica Pall., Zygophyllum xanthoxylum (Bunge) Maxim. predicted increase. All except K. will experience greater reductions between 2041 2060 than 2061 2080 more severe change scenarios. There significant ecological overlap among sphaerocarpa, tangutorum, P. multisectum. Key include mean ultraviolet-B light lowest month, altitude, annual temperature. A comprehensive analysis demonstrated that accuracy predictions could be significantly enhanced distributional error minimized employing model simulate habitats parasitic species. findings this can inform both management plantations conservation plants.

Language: Английский

Modeling the Present and Future Geographical Distribution Potential of Dipteronia dyeriana, a Critically Endangered Species from China

Diversity, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(9), P. 545 - 545

Published: Sept. 4, 2024

Climate change will have various impacts on the survival and development of species, it is important to explore whether plants can adapt future climate conditions. Dipteronia dyeriana an endangered species with a narrow distribution in Yunnan, characterized by small population size. However, studies its current impact are very limited. In this study, (2050 2090) potential habitats under SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 scenarios were predicted using both maximum entropy (MaxEnt) random forest (RF) models based range points D. dyeriana, soil, topographical, land cover, data. The results showed that RF model demonstrated significantly higher AUC, TSS, Kappa scores than MaxEnt model, suggesting high accuracy model. Isothermality (bio_3), minimum temperature coldest month (bio_6), annual precipitation (bio_12) main environmental factors affecting dyeriana. At present, suitability area mainly concentrated eastern part Yunnan Province southern Tibet, covering 3.53 × 104 km2. Under scenarios, total suitable for expected increase. Although, highly has tendency decrease. With regards use, more 77.53% (29.67 km2) could be used planting different SSP scenarios. 2090, centroid shifts two exhibit consistent trend. SSP1-2.6 scenario, centroids transfer southeast. SSP3-7.0 areas migrate toward northwest. summary, study enhances our understanding influence geographic provides essential theoretical backing efforts conservation cultivation.

Language: Английский

Impact of Climate Change on Distribution of Suitable Niches for Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) Plantation in China

Forests, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 1616 - 1616

Published: Sept. 13, 2024

Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.), one of the major afforestation species adopted in vegetation restoration, is notable for its rapid root growth and drought resistance. It plays a vital role improving natural environment soil fertility, contributing significantly to water conservation biodiversity protection. However, compared with forests, due low diversity, simple structure poor stability, planted forests including Robinia L. are more sensitive changing climate, especially aspects trend adaptive range. Studying ecological characteristics geographical boundaries therefore important explore adaptation suitable niches climate change. Here, based on 162 effective distribution records China 22 environmental variables, potential plantations past, present future climates was simulated by using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The results showed that accuracy MaxEnt model excellent area under curve (AUC) value reached 0.937. Key factors constraining intervals were identified, changes scenarios also predicted. current covered 9.2 × 105 km2, mainly distributed Loess Plateau, Huai River Basin, Sichuan eastern part Yunnan–Guizhou Shandong Peninsula, Liaodong Peninsula. main variables included mean temperature driest quarter, precipitation seasonality altitude. Among them, quarter most factor. Over past 90 years, Basin Plateau have not changed significantly, while north Qinling Mountains expanded northward 2° Liaoning Province has 1.2°. In scenarios, expected expand both periods 2041–2060 2061–2080, increase highly niches, widely southern China. A warning issued native above-mentioned areas. This work will be beneficial developing reasonable strategies understanding adaptability

Language: Английский