Global and East Asia tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer trend analysis from 1990 to 2021 and forecast trend from 2021 to 2035 DOI Creative Commons
Jian Ding,

Weizhen Guo,

Qian Xue

et al.

Frontiers in Oncology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15

Published: March 13, 2025

Background and Aims This study aimed to evaluate the trends in incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for trachea, bronchus, lung (TBL) cancer globally East Asia from 1990 2021. Methods We analyzed TBL data Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, focusing on five Asian countries. Socioeconomic contexts were examined using sociodemographic indices. Trends disease metrics time-segmented link-point regression determine average annual percentage change (AAPC). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied forecast future burden 2022 2030. Results Globally Asia, significant increases observed DALYs related China had highest rates incidence (934,704; 95% UI, 750,040 1,136,938), mortality (814,364; 652,636 987,795), (18,920,203; 15,100,681 23,111,519), while Mongolia lowest. Ambient particulate matter pollution identified as main risk factor both most Notably, global spikes occurred during 1999-2012 2019-2021 (AAPC: 1.170 [95%, 1.115 1.225] 1.658 0.604 2.723], respectively). In Mongolia, showed variable trends. The DALY attributed population aging growth, epidemiological shifts have contributed reduced rates. Except Democratic People’s Republic Korea, generally declining across other Conclusion There has been a increase 2021, with environmental potentially serving strongly correlated factor. is an urgent need enhance prevention, early detection, treatment measures, particularly high-risk regions.

Language: Английский

Global and East Asia tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer trend analysis from 1990 to 2021 and forecast trend from 2021 to 2035 DOI Creative Commons
Jian Ding,

Weizhen Guo,

Qian Xue

et al.

Frontiers in Oncology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15

Published: March 13, 2025

Background and Aims This study aimed to evaluate the trends in incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for trachea, bronchus, lung (TBL) cancer globally East Asia from 1990 2021. Methods We analyzed TBL data Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study, focusing on five Asian countries. Socioeconomic contexts were examined using sociodemographic indices. Trends disease metrics time-segmented link-point regression determine average annual percentage change (AAPC). A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was applied forecast future burden 2022 2030. Results Globally Asia, significant increases observed DALYs related China had highest rates incidence (934,704; 95% UI, 750,040 1,136,938), mortality (814,364; 652,636 987,795), (18,920,203; 15,100,681 23,111,519), while Mongolia lowest. Ambient particulate matter pollution identified as main risk factor both most Notably, global spikes occurred during 1999-2012 2019-2021 (AAPC: 1.170 [95%, 1.115 1.225] 1.658 0.604 2.723], respectively). In Mongolia, showed variable trends. The DALY attributed population aging growth, epidemiological shifts have contributed reduced rates. Except Democratic People’s Republic Korea, generally declining across other Conclusion There has been a increase 2021, with environmental potentially serving strongly correlated factor. is an urgent need enhance prevention, early detection, treatment measures, particularly high-risk regions.

Language: Английский

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