Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 5, 2024

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above pre-industrial level, surpassing previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and El Niño onset fall short 0.2K in explaining rise. Utilizing satellite reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely reduced low-cloud cover northern mid-latitudes tropics, continuation multi-annual trend. Further exploring trend understanding how much it due internal variability, aerosol concentrations, or possibly emerging feedback will be crucial for assessing current expected future warming.

Language: Английский

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Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 45(6), P. 1721 - 1756

Published: July 29, 2024

Abstract Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings feedback. To date, most precise measurements EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at top atmosphere (TOA), while quantification absolute magnitude facilitated heat inventory analysis, where ~ 90% uptake manifests as an increase in ocean content (OHC). Various international groups provide OHC datasets derived from situ satellite observations, well reanalyses ingesting many available observations. The WCRP formed GEWEX-EEI Assessment Working Group to better understand discrepancies, uncertainties reconcile current knowledge magnitude, variability trends. Here, 21 (OHU) rates intercompared, providing OHU estimates ranging between 0.40 ± 0.12 0.96 0.08 W m −2 (2005–2019), spread that slightly reduced when unequal sampling accounted for, largely attributable differing source data, mapping methods quality control procedures. rate varies substantially − 0.03 0.13 (reanalysis product) 1.1 0.6 dec −1 (satellite product). Products either more regularly observe (satellites) or fill data-sparse regions based on additional physical (some reanalysis hybrid products) tend track than purely situ-based products. This paper also examines zonal trends TOA fluxes data gaps trend estimates. community aims refine their assessment studies, forge path toward best practices, e.g., uncertainty quantification, formulate recommendations for future activities.

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 20(2), P. 024037 - 024037

Published: Jan. 28, 2025

Abstract Global mean sea surface temperature (GMSST) is a fundamental diagnostic of ongoing climate change, yet there incomplete understanding multi-decadal changes in warming rate and year-to-year variability. Exploiting satellite observations since 1985 statistical model incorporating drivers variability we identify an increasing rise GMSST. This accelerating ocean physically linked to upward trend Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI). We quantify that GMSST has increased by 0.54 ± 0.07 K for each GJ m –2 accumulated energy, equivalent 0.17 ± 0.02 decade ‒1 (W ‒2 ) . Using the isolate from interannual variability, underlying change rises proportion with accumulation 0.06 –1 during 1985–89 0.27 2019–23. While associated El Niño Southern Oscillation triggered exceptionally high GMSSTs 2023 early 2024, 44% (90% confidence interval: 35%–52%) +0.22 difference between peak 2023/24 event 2015/16 unexplained unless acceleration accounted for. Applying indicative future scenarios EEI based on recent trends, increases are likely be faster than would expected linear extrapolation past four decades. Our results provide observational evidence increase inferred over 40 years will exceeded within next 20 years. Policy makers wider society should aware global decades poor guide come, underscoring urgency deep reductions fossil-fuel burning.

Language: Английский

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Desert dust and photovoltaic energy forecasts: Lessons from 46 Saharan dust events in Hungary (Central Europe)

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 212, P. 115446 - 115446

Published: Jan. 30, 2025

Language: Английский

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What made 2023 and 2024 the hottest years in a row?

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: March 22, 2025

Language: Английский

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Solar dimming by increased moisture in a warmer world

National Science Review, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 8, 2025

Language: Английский

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Climate change perspectives

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 185 - 225

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Global and regional drivers for exceptional climate extremes in 2023-2024: beyond the new normal

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: April 7, 2025

Abstract Climate records have been broken with alarming regularity in recent years, but the events of 2023–2024 were exceptional even when accounting for climatic trends. Here we quantify these across multiple variables and show how excess energy accumulation Earth system drove conditions. Key factors positive decadal trend Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI), persistent La Niña conditions beginning 2020, switch to El Niño 2023. Between 2022 2023, heating from EEI was over 75% larger than during onset similar events. We further regional processes shaped distinct patterns record-breaking sea surface temperatures individual ocean basins. If is maintained, argue that natural fluctuations such as ENSO cycles will increasingly lead amplified, impacts, serving a glimpse future climate extremes.

Language: Английский

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Remarkable pattern of global warming in ocean heat content

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Sept. 5, 2024

Huge heat anomalies in the past few years are not explained by climate models¹. Strong characteristic patterns temperatures for upper layers of ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 presence global warming increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases². Here we show that deep tropics warming, although sharply modulated El Niño-Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating extratropics near 40°N and 40 45°S, but little 20°N 25-30°S. The is most clearly manifested zonal mean content evident sea surface temperatures. Strongest Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects small. Estimates made contributions top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, energy transports, fluxes energy, redistribution winds currents. directly related TOA radiation strongly net fluxes. Changes circulation, jet streams, storm tracks reflected Ekman transports. As well as change, natural variability likely play. Hence atmosphere currents systematically redistributing profoundly affecting local climates.

Language: Английский

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Special Issue on Earth’s Changing Water and Energy Cycle

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 45(6), P. 1715 - 1720

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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