Cryo-social dynamics: the interplay of glacial dynamics and socioeconomic conditions in the Shigar Valley, Karakoram, Pakistan

GeoJournal, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 90(1)

Published: Feb. 3, 2025

Abstract Mountain communities globally are experiencing increasing challenges as climate-induced glacier changes disrupt water resources and agricultural systems. The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region of Pakistan has been witnessing environmental over the last few decades with widespread impacts on different sectors life. In Shigar Valley Karakoram region, face socio-economic partly attributed to in dynamics, which directly affect availability productivity. This study investigates glacial community livelihoods by integrating modeling a comprehensive socioeconomic survey. Glaciological change was analyzed from 1970 2020 using Open Global Glacier Model, projections under SSP-126, SSP-370, SSP-585 scenarios for 2020–2100. mass balance simulations driven historical climatological data reveal an overall negative trend, despite shorter periods growth regional hydroclimatic anomalies. Future indicate volume could decline 60% 2100, compared approximately 30% SSP-126. A questionnaire survey conducted across 20 villages, engaging 375 respondents understand extent dependence glacier-fed resources, migration adaptive strategies socioenvironmental conditions. findings that while 42% reported high snow melt, 46% facing due irregular supplies. These have affecting fabric 71% migrations were declining local productivity, 66% destinations being international. aware challenges, they adopting various cope it. include rainfed farming (32%), adoption drought-resistant crops (19%), expansion into proglacial (recently deglaciated areas closer glaciers’ termini) lands (52%).

Language: Английский

Climate-induced migration: The need to address human rights to water and sanitation for a growing displaced population

Environmental Science & Policy, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 103799 - 103799

Published: May 30, 2024

Language: Английский

Climate conditions, credit risk cycles, and technological progress: Evidence from China

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 210, P. 123893 - 123893

Published: Nov. 26, 2024

Language: Английский