Synthetic control methods enable stronger causal inference using participatory science data in cities

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 21, 2025

As urban populations grow, conserving biodiversity within cities is increasingly vital and of global policy interest. However, environments pose unique challenges for understanding drivers change, as fragmented land ownership makes traditional monitoring randomized experiments logistically difficult. While participatory science platforms like iNaturalist offer a promising data source by providing extensive from areas, inferring causality remains challenging due to confounding factors in observational data. To leverage these advances, we framework that combines records with synthetic control methods, quasi-experimental approach. We demonstrate this approach case study assessing the impact Hurricane Ida (2021) on bee Philadelphia, USA. The estimated 9.4% decline abundance two years post-event. In contrast, three conventional ecological analyses—an interrupted time series regression, before-after comparison, (BACI) design—failed detect decline, naively detecting an increase unaccounted temporal trends. Synthetic methods powerful tool estimating citywide responses climate events interventions, enhancing utility ecology.

Language: Английский

Evidence-base for urban green-blue infrastructure to support insect diversity

Urban Ecosystems, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 28(1), P. 1 - 14

Published: Dec. 7, 2024

Abstract Green-blue urban infrastructures potentially offer win-win benefits for people and nature in areas. Given increasing evidence of widespread declines insects, as well their ecological importance, there is a need to better understand the potential role green-blue infrastructure insect conservation. In this review, we evaluated 201 studies about ability support diversity. Most were focused on local landscape-level characteristics infrastructure. Fewer explicitly compared one type another, even fewer communities between traditional Overall, body research highlights importance plant diversity reduced intensity management (e.g., mowing) most taxon groups. While seem be generally more important than landscape factors, within can also depend connectivity context. Some types are beneficial others; instance, ground-level habitats tend insects green roofs. Few simultaneously studied synergies or trade-offs with other services provided by infrastructure, but environmental variables, such tree cover diversity, that affect likely provision improving thermal comfort well-being people. Our review offers some initial how could designed multifunctionality mind.

Language: Английский