Using spatially explicit individual-based models to prioritize conservation strategies: A case study on the little bustard DOI Creative Commons
Tiago Mendes, Ana Teresa Marques, Francesco Valerio

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 379, P. 124790 - 124790

Published: March 6, 2025

Steppe birds are among the most threatened terrestrial worldwide, requiring urgent, well-planned, and cost-effective conservation strategies to halt population declines. The little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) is one of those species that has experienced sharp declines across its western range, yet effectiveness different management interventions remains poorly understood. Predictive models, such as Individual-Based Models (IBM), provide powerful tools anticipate assess scenarios for endangered species, supporting evidence-based decisions. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit demographic IBM evaluate in Extremadura, Spain, where faces skewed sex ratio towards males, habitat degradation high anthropogenic mortality. Our model integrates high-resolution suitability data with parameters simulate individual behaviours interactions environment, forecasting use dynamics under strategies. calibration process supported hypothesis nest, chick, adult survival positively correlate suitability. Notably, our results suggest unbalanced partially driven by low female rates less favourable habitats. We simulated focused on improvement mitigation mortality over 50 years (2022-2072). indicate enhancements alone insufficient reverse without complementary efforts reduce This finding emphasizes need an integrated, long-term strategy combines proactive measures mitigate human-induced mortality, ensuring sustainable recovery populations. More broadly, study highlights value IBMs high-resolution, decision-support planning, offering critical insights into prioritizing implementing

Language: Английский

Using spatially explicit individual-based models to prioritize conservation strategies: A case study on the little bustard DOI Creative Commons
Tiago Mendes, Ana Teresa Marques, Francesco Valerio

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 379, P. 124790 - 124790

Published: March 6, 2025

Steppe birds are among the most threatened terrestrial worldwide, requiring urgent, well-planned, and cost-effective conservation strategies to halt population declines. The little bustard (Tetrax tetrax) is one of those species that has experienced sharp declines across its western range, yet effectiveness different management interventions remains poorly understood. Predictive models, such as Individual-Based Models (IBM), provide powerful tools anticipate assess scenarios for endangered species, supporting evidence-based decisions. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit demographic IBM evaluate in Extremadura, Spain, where faces skewed sex ratio towards males, habitat degradation high anthropogenic mortality. Our model integrates high-resolution suitability data with parameters simulate individual behaviours interactions environment, forecasting use dynamics under strategies. calibration process supported hypothesis nest, chick, adult survival positively correlate suitability. Notably, our results suggest unbalanced partially driven by low female rates less favourable habitats. We simulated focused on improvement mitigation mortality over 50 years (2022-2072). indicate enhancements alone insufficient reverse without complementary efforts reduce This finding emphasizes need an integrated, long-term strategy combines proactive measures mitigate human-induced mortality, ensuring sustainable recovery populations. More broadly, study highlights value IBMs high-resolution, decision-support planning, offering critical insights into prioritizing implementing

Language: Английский

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