International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: March 25, 2025
ABSTRACT The zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) has been assessed using 50 climate models. Among these, 38 models exhibit an east–west negative trend, indicating intensified warming pattern Western Equatorial (WEIO). This strong inter‐model spread representing SST TIO mainly arises from large variability of trends eastern Ocean. multi‐model mean shows a westward which is approximately four‐fold higher than observed trend. However, such as E3SM‐1‐1 and NESM3 realistically represent both western equatorial regions, thereby capturing gradients close to observation. To investigate underlying mechanisms, we categorised into two groups, each comprising five first group, CESM2‐FV2, EC‐Earth3‐Veg‐LR, EC‐Earth3‐Veg, CAS‐ESM2.0, CIESM, demonstrates pronounced trends. Conversely, second consisting CESM2‐WACCM‐FV2, CESM2, CESM2‐WACCM, CMCC‐CM2‐SR5, MIROC6, exhibits relatively subdued positive gradients, attributable slower WEIO. inconsistent formation, associated with eastward (westward) intensification (negative) models, leads larger magnitudes compared observations. wind‐evaporation‐SST (WES) feedback plays predominant role shaping groups while state bias secondary role. Bjerknes weak whereas WES feedbacks act enhance study underscores dominant air‐sea interaction processes forming patterns highlights unrealistic
Language: Английский