Persistent Water Scarcity Due To High Irrigation Demand in Arid China: A Case Study in the North Slope of the Tianshan Mountains

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(11)

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Abstract Water scarcity is a critical threat in arid regions China due to dry climate and rising human water demand. The sustainability of recent wetter trend its impact on future security remain uncertain. This case study focuses hotspot region, the North Slope Tianshan Mountains (NSTM), assess coming decades (2030–2050) under two scenarios. To this end, we developed an integrated agro‐hydrological model simulate historical hydrological processes crop dynamics regions. Our results indicate nonsignificant increases precipitation (around 3%) evident temperatures (0.9–1.5°C) NSTM compared present‐day (2011–2020) climate. translates projected increase availability (5.6%–11.2%) during 2030–2050, with slightly larger (6.3%–14%) glacier runoff. However, spatial mismatch between demand makes potential gain largely offset by irrigation (over 7%) if cropland remains constant from 2020 onwards. As result, current annual deficit (3.3 km 3 ) likely 5%–11%, 32% basins facing persistent scarcity. Most croplands are at high risk groundwater depletion 17%–34% will experience intensified These findings highlight urgent need for comprehensive management strategies, including improved efficiency exploration alternative sources, ensure sustainable development changing

Language: Английский

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Synergistic Effects of Warming and Heavy Snowfall on the Increased Risk of Large-Scale Snow Avalanche in the Western Tianshan Mountains

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Suspended sediment load under future climate in headwater basins of the Northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 133429 - 133429

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of future precipitation variability in the Tianshan Mountain region of China

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 57, P. 102124 - 102124

Published: Dec. 21, 2024

Language: Английский

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