Evaluating changes in flood frequency due to climate change in the Western Cape, South Africa

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 38(10), P. 3929 - 3950

Published: July 30, 2024

Abstract This study assesses the impact of climate change on flood frequency across seven sites in Western Cape province South Africa. The calibrated Water Resources Simulation Model (WRSM)/Pitman hydrological model was run using precipitation inputs from two representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) a combination eight global circulatory models (GCM) for periods (2030–2060 2070–2100). GCMs were statistically downscaled delta (DC), linear scaling (LS) quantile mapping (QDM) approaches. Average daily discharge estimated each dataset Pitman/WRSM with Fuller Sangal estimation methods used to calculate instantaneous peak flows. Flood curves (FFC) generated annual maximum series (AMS) GCM ensemble mean individual return between 2 100 years. FFCs based LS QDM downscaling aligned terms direction FFCs. Further analysis conducted outputs approach, given its suitability projecting Under this method, both exhibited decreasing trend Jonkershoek Little Berg River sites; however, quantiles low-probability events higher under method. noted variation compared FFC representing mean. research (FFA) Africa should incorporate other advanced flow (IPF) methods.

Language: Английский

Climate variability and drought

Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 205 - 239

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский