Review of Meteorological Drought in Africa: Historical Trends, Impacts, Mitigation Measures, and Prospects

Pure and Applied Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 179(4), P. 1365 - 1386

Published: March 14, 2022

This review study examines the state of meteorological drought over Africa, focusing on historical trends, impacts, mitigation strategies, and future prospects. Relevant drought-related articles were systematically sourced from credible bibliographic databases covering African subregions in twentieth twenty-first centuries (i.e. 1950 to 2021), using suitable keywords. Past studies show evidence occurrence extreme events across continent. The underlying mechanisms are mostly attributed complex interactions dynamical thermodynamical mechanisms. resultant impact is evidenced decline agricultural activities water resources environmental degradation all subregions. Projected changes recovery west/east domain, while south north regions indicate a tendency for increasing characteristics. apparent intricate link between continent's development climate variability, including reoccurrence events, calls paradigm shifts policy direction. Key meant infrastructural technological growth economy being diverted develop coping adapt change effects, which changing. Efficient service delivery drought-prone hotspots, strengthening monitoring, forecasting, early warning, response systems, improved research combined effects anthropogenic systems valuable practitioners, researchers, policymakers regarding management Africa today future.

Language: Английский

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Hydrological Intensification Will Increase the Complexity of Water Resource Management

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(3)

Published: March 1, 2022

Abstract Global warming intensifies the hydrological cycle by altering rate of water fluxes to and from terrestrial surface, resulting in an increase extreme precipitation events longer dry spells. Prior intensification work has largely focused on without joint consideration evaporative demand changes how plants respond these changes. Informed state‐of‐the‐art climate models, we examine projected its role complicating resources management using a framework that accounts for surplus demand. Using metric combines difference between daily (surplus events) consecutive days when exceeds (deficit time), show that, globally, will become larger (+11.5% +18.5% moderate high emission scenarios, respectively) duration them (+5.1%; +9.6%) end century, with largest northern latitudes. The intra‐annual occurrence extremes stress existing infrastructure major river basins, where over one third years during 2070–2100 under emissions scenario be hydrologically intense (large increases intensity deficit tripling historical baseline. Larger are found basins large reservoir capacity (e.g., Amazon, Congo, Danube River Basins), which have significant populations, irrigate considerable farmland, support threatened endangered aquatic species. Incorporating flexibility into resource paramount continued intensification.

Language: Английский

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Advances and challenges in climate modeling

Climatic Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 170(1-2)

Published: Jan. 1, 2022

Language: Английский

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Future Changes in Climate and Hydroclimate Extremes in East Africa

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(2)

Published: Jan. 30, 2023

Abstract Climate change is affecting the agriculture, water, and energy sectors in East Africa impact projected to increase future. To allow adaptation mitigation of impacts, we assessed changes climate their impacts on hydrology hydrological extremes Africa. We used outputs from seven CMIP‐6 Global Models (GCMs) 1981–2010 as a reference period. The output GCMs are statistically downscaled using Bias Correction‐Constructed Analogs with Quantile mapping reordering method drive high‐resolution model. Variable Infiltration Capacity vector‐based routing models simulate runoff streamflow across 68,300 river reaches results show an annual precipitation (up 35%) Ethiopia, Uganda, Kenya decrease 4.5%) Southern Tanzania 2050s (2041–2070) 2080s (2071–2100). During long rainy season (March–May), be higher 43%) than period Kenya, Uganda but lower −20%) Tanzania. Large parts Tanzania, Ethiopia 38%) during short (October–December). Temperature evapotranspiration will continue Further, seasonal (droughts floods) large region throughout 21st century calling for site‐specific adaptation.

Language: Английский

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Between flood and drought: How cities are facing water surplus and scarcity

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 345, P. 118557 - 118557

Published: July 8, 2023

Language: Английский

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Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Abstract Global warming can profoundly influence the mean climate over Arabian Peninsula, which may significantly both natural and human systems. The present study aims to investigate changes in precipitation regime response change with special emphasis on United Arab Emirates (UAE). This work is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Climate Models under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). are analyzed phases such as 2021–2050 (near future), 2051–2080 (mid future) 2080–2100 (far period 1985–2014 baseline. represents first attempt utilize NEX-GDDP models project regional patterns across Peninsula. Results suggest that annual expected increase most UAE by up 30%, particularly intense mid-future onwards all scenarios. Specifically, spatiotemporal distribution extremes intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, exceeding 10 mm days increasing; contrast, consecutive dry decrease towards end century. results show extreme scenario relative historical indicate progressive wetting UAE, accompanied increased heavy events reduced spell events, high emission A dataset essential for better understanding patterns, especially regions where more detailed information needed local scale achieve water, food security, environmental sustainability formulate effective adaptation strategies mitigating potential risks consequences associated variations wet conditions.

Language: Английский

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Exploring future trends of precipitation and runoff in arid regions under different scenarios based on a bias-corrected CMIP6 model

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 630, P. 130666 - 130666

Published: Jan. 24, 2024

Language: Английский

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Climate models for predicting precipitation and temperature trends in cities: A systematic review

Sustainable Cities and Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 106171 - 106171

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 4(3), P. 477 - 492

Published: Aug. 25, 2020

Abstract This study investigates future changes of temperature, precipitation, and associated extreme events in the MENA region using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate over CORDEX-MENA domain. capabilities to reproduce key observed regional climate features are first assessed, including heat waves, drought high precipitation extremes. Projected indicate intensification waves number, duration magnitude, contrasted changes. A drying is projected north-west moistening north-east along Mediterranean side region. warming found at rate about 0.2 °C/decade 0.5 land depending on scenario. Drought expected increase northern half independently from index used, but with a higher case accounting for both effect temperature results corroborate previous studies projecting host global hot spots late twenty-first century.

Language: Английский

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Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(3), P. 034040 - 034040

Published: Jan. 6, 2021

Abstract Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect that uncertainty specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey both and models. We provide comprehensive evaluation projected crop yields for maize, spring winter wheat, rice, soybean, using suite nine models up to 45 CMIP5 34 CMIP6 projections three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use new set statistical model emulators. find contribute about equally overall uncertainty. While ranges yield uncertainties under similar, median aggregate total caloric production typically more negative (+1% −19%) than (+5% −13%). In first half 21st century individual crops spread across wider models, but distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat maize dominated by soybean rice sensitive projections. Climate with very similar global mean warming can lead so remain significant contributor agricultural These results show utility large-ensemble methods allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting or other change. The ensemble used here unbalanced pulls assumption all plausible into question. Better consistent testing, also at level processes, will have be developed applied modeling community.

Language: Английский

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