Evidence and Controls of the Acceleration of the Hydrological Cycle Over Land DOI Creative Commons
Yiran Wang, Naika Meili, Simone Fatichi

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 59(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Abstract Investigating modifications in the hydrological cycle is essential to understand impacts of climate change on ecosystems. This study assesses velocity water over land at global scale, whereas previous studies have mostly focused changes atmospheric cycle. The acceleration quantified by a decrease average residence time (RT) first meter soil. soil RT shown be sensitive texture and seasonality hydroclimatic variables. Despite substantial local variability, most RTs are range 50–300 days. mean declined rate −2.30 −0.36 days decade −1 (−1.6 1.0 nine models) from 2001 2020 as measured reanalysis CMIP6 simulations for historical scenario, respectively, which corresponds −6.8 −1.1 °C when expressed per degree warming land. projected continue −1.35 (−3.4 0.0 or −2.2 during period 2015–2100 under extreme emission scenario: SSP 585. Changes precipitation dominantly drive terrestrial compared evapotranspiration. Rising temperatures increasing carbon dioxide opposite effects speed with compensatory roles keeping relatively unchanged absence PR trends.

Language: Английский

Projected future daily characteristics of African precipitation based on global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE) climate models DOI Creative Commons
Alessandro Dosio, Martin Jury, Mansour Almazroui

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(11-12), P. 3135 - 3158

Published: June 30, 2021

Abstract We provide an assessment of future daily characteristics African precipitation by explicitly comparing the results large ensembles global (CMIP5, CMIP6) and regional (CORDEX, CORE) climate models, specifically highlighting similarities inconsistencies between them. Results for seasonal mean are not always consistent amongst ensembles: in particular, models tend to project a wetter compared especially over Eastern Sahel, Central East Africa. However, other more consistent. In general, all increase maximum intensity during wet season regions emission scenarios (except West Sahel decrease frequency (under Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5) Atlas region, southern central Africa, Africa Depending on season, length dry spells is projected consistently most (if all) Ethiopian highlands region. Discrepancies exist change specific seasons. For instance, July–August show but robust decrease. Global also opposite sign spells. CORE marked drying affected monsoon throughout year, accompanied May July that present ensembles. This enhanced may be related physical mechanisms better resolved higher resolution highlights importance process-based evaluation controlling

Language: Английский

Citations

128
Extreme precipitation indices over India using CMIP6: a special emphasis on the SSP585 scenario DOI
Nagireddy Masthan Reddy, Subbarayan Saravanan

Environmental Science and Pollution Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30(16), P. 47119 - 47143

Published: Feb. 3, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

43
Declined terrestrial ecosystem resilience DOI
Yao Ying, Yanxu Liu, Fengyu Fu

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Abstract Terrestrial ecosystem resilience is crucial for maintaining the structural and functional stability of ecosystems following disturbances. However, changes in over past few decades risk future loss under ongoing climate change are unclear. Here, we identified trends using two remotely sensed vegetation indices, analyzed relative importance potential driving factors to changes, finally assessed based on output data eight models from CMIP6. The results revealed that more than 60% experienced a conversion an increased trend declined resilience. Attribution analysis showed most important varied regionally. were associated with precipitation variability tropics, decreased cover arid region, temperature temperate regions, average cold regions. CMIP6 reveals terrestrial SPP585 expected experience intense declines those SSP126 SSP245, particularly These highlight continued degradation urgency mitigation actions.

Language: Английский

Citations

24
Future changes in the precipitation regime over the Arabian Peninsula with special emphasis on UAE: insights from NEX-GDDP CMIP6 model simulations DOI Creative Commons

K. Koteswara Rao,

Abdulla Al Mandous,

Mohamed Al Ebri

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2024

Abstract Global warming can profoundly influence the mean climate over Arabian Peninsula, which may significantly both natural and human systems. The present study aims to investigate changes in precipitation regime response change with special emphasis on United Arab Emirates (UAE). This work is performed using a sub-set of high-resolution NASA Earth Exchange Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) data derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Climate Models under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). are analyzed phases such as 2021–2050 (near future), 2051–2080 (mid future) 2080–2100 (far period 1985–2014 baseline. represents first attempt utilize NEX-GDDP models project regional patterns across Peninsula. Results suggest that annual expected increase most UAE by up 30%, particularly intense mid-future onwards all scenarios. Specifically, spatiotemporal distribution extremes intensity, 1-day highest precipitation, exceeding 10 mm days increasing; contrast, consecutive dry decrease towards end century. results show extreme scenario relative historical indicate progressive wetting UAE, accompanied increased heavy events reduced spell events, high emission A dataset essential for better understanding patterns, especially regions where more detailed information needed local scale achieve water, food security, environmental sustainability formulate effective adaptation strategies mitigating potential risks consequences associated variations wet conditions.

Language: Английский

Citations

23
Changes in observed rainfall and temperature extremes in the Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia DOI Creative Commons
Jemal Ali Mohammed, Temesgen Gashaw, Gebrekidan Worku Tefera

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 37, P. 100468 - 100468

Published: June 1, 2022

Ethiopia, a densely populated country with abundant natural resources, is often hit by climate extreme disasters that cause severe damage to life and property every year in one or the other corner. The frequency intensity of events have increased recent decades due change variability. This study aimed analyze changes observed rainfall minimum maximum temperature extremes Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB) Ethiopia from 1980 2019 periods. Mann-Kendall (MK) trend test Theil-Sen's slope estimator were used estimate annual seasonal trends. analyzed using RClimDex, which graphical user interface R software, selecting ten eleven indices. results showed positive annual, dry (March–May) small rain (October–February) seasons more than 54% stations decreasing main (June–September) season 65.4% stations. Several indices insignificant trends basin. Although there rainfall, number consecutive wet days (CWD) simple daily index (SDII) show negative most In addition, warming was noted. Overall, increase indicate signs UBNB. findings this suggests need for developing adaptation mitigation strategies

Language: Английский

Citations

65
Evaluation of extreme precipitation climate indices and their projected changes for Brazil: From CMIP3 to CMIP6 DOI Creative Commons
Felipe Jeferson de Medeiros, Cristiano Prestrelo de Oliveira, Álvaro Ávila-Díaz

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 38, P. 100511 - 100511

Published: Sept. 25, 2022

Extreme events usually cause numerous economic and social losses, especially in vulnerable countries, such as Brazil. Understanding whether the evolution of Earth System Models (ESMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) improves representation extreme investigating their future change is fundamental because device policies adaptation mitigation to climate generally consider results most recent generation ESMs. This study analyzes performance a subset 40 ESMs CMIP3, CMIP5, CMIP6 simulating eight precipitation indices over Brazil during 1981–2000 also estimates projected changes for middle (2046–2065) far (2081–2 100) under worst-case scenario each CMIP generation. Results reveal that CDD are challenging index be simulated, while best ones were PRCPTOT R20mm. The model shows CMIP3 has skill Northeast Brazil, CMIP5 Center-West, North, Southeast South regions. Thus, at least did not reflect substantial improvement extremes all Brazilian In addition, models across generations have difficulty observed trends. indicate improvements still needed models. Despite relative low historical climate, projections consensus signal among generations, which increase its reliability. Overall, more severe, frequent, long-lasting regions, with pronounce expected heavy rainfall severe droughts central northern portion southern sector.

Language: Английский

Citations

63
A New Look into the South America Precipitation Regimes: Observation and Forecast DOI Creative Commons
Glauber Willian de Souza Ferreira, Michelle Simões Reboita

Atmosphere, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(6), P. 873 - 873

Published: May 26, 2022

South America is a vast continent characterized by diverse atmospheric phenomena and climate regimes. In this context, seasonal predictions are helpful for decision-making in several relevant socioeconomic segments territory, such as agriculture energy generation. Thus, the present work evaluates performance of ECMWF-SEAS5 simulating American precipitation regimes applying non-hierarchical clustering technique. addition, study describes main systems that cause each cluster updates previous performed 2010. As result, simulates (with good correspondence) eight identified analysis from Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Moreover, has satisfactory ability representing rainfall regime low medium predictability regions, central southern America. characterization it gives us confidence using its throughout continent.

Language: Английский

Citations

61
Theoretical and paleoclimatic evidence for abrupt transitions in the Earth system DOI Creative Commons
Niklas Boers, Michael Ghil, Thomas F. Stocker

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. 093006 - 093006

Published: Sept. 1, 2022

Abstract Specific components of the Earth system may abruptly change their state in response to gradual changes forcing. This possibility has attracted great scientific interest recent years, and been recognized as one greatest threats associated with anthropogenic climate change. Examples such components, called tipping elements, include Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, polar ice sheets, Amazon rainforest, well tropical monsoon systems. The mathematical language describe abrupt climatic transitions is mainly based on theory nonlinear dynamical systems and, particular, bifurcations. Applications this nonautonomous stochastically forced are a very active field research. empirical evidence that have indeed occurred past stems exclusively from paleoclimate proxy records. In review, we explain basic needed critical transitions, summarize for different parts system, examine some candidates future ongoing Predicting remains difficult subject large uncertainties. Substantial improvements our understanding mechanisms underlying needed. We argue an improved requires combining insights (a) paleoclimatic records; (b) simulations using hierarchy models, conceptual comprehensive ones; (c) time series analysis observation-based data encode dynamics present-day potentially prone tipping.

Language: Английский

Citations

51
Meteorological flash droughts risk projections based on CMIP6 climate change scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Vijay Sreeparvathy, V. V. Srinivas

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: Oct. 15, 2022

Abstract Meteorological flash droughts (MFDs) are sub-seasonal-to-seasonal drought phenomena characterized by rapid onset/intensification. This study assesses the changes in trends and hotspot regions of MFDs for present five future CMIP6 SSP forcing scenarios (SSP-FS) at global-, continental- regional-scales. Analysis with 12 GCMs indicates that globally, frequency, duration severity projected to increase ~20–50%, 20–58%, 26–62%, respectively, highest occurrence probability during summer season. The MFD appeared prominent arid semi-arid zones. exposure risk is exceed ~1.5 folds most continents, Indian sub-continent. Furthermore, Europe South America, which currently less impacted MFDs, a considerable (~122–127%) under warmest SSP-FS. LULC-classes elevation range vulnerable regional potential hydrometeorological drivers trigger development identified.

Language: Английский

Citations

51
Climate change on Eucalyptus plantations and adaptive measures for sustainable forestry development across Brazil DOI Creative Commons
Gabriel Wilson Lorena Florêncio, Fabrina Bolzan Martins, Flávia Fernanda Azevedo Fagundes

et al.

Industrial Crops and Products, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 188, P. 115538 - 115538

Published: Sept. 12, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

42