CLIMBra - Climate Change Dataset for Brazil

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Jan. 20, 2023

Abstract General Circulation and Earth System Models are the most advanced tools for investigating climate responses to future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, playing role projecting throughout century. Nevertheless, projections model-dependent may show systematic biases, requiring a bias correction any further application. Here, we provide dataset based on an ensemble 19 bias-corrected CMIP6 models Brazilian territory SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios. We used Quantile Delta Mapping approach bias-correct daily time-series precipitation, maximum minimum temperature, solar net radiation, near-surface wind speed, relative humidity. The is available both historical (1980–2013) (2015–2100) simulations at 0.25° × spatial resolution. Besides gridded product, area-averaged 735 catchments included in Catchments Attributes Brazil (CABra) dataset. provides important variables commonly environmental hydroclimatological studies, paving way development high-quality research change impacts Brazil.

Language: Английский

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Climate-driven changes in the predictability of seasonal precipitation

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: June 28, 2023

Climate-driven changes in precipitation amounts and their seasonal variability are expected many continental-scale regions during the remainder of 21st century. However, much less is known about future predictability precipitation, an important earth system property relevant for climate adaptation. Here, on basis CMIP6 models that capture present-day teleconnections between previous-season sea surface temperature (SST), we show change to alter SST-precipitation relationships thus our ability predict by 2100. Specifically, tropics, from SSTs projected increase throughout year, except northern Amazonia boreal winter. Concurrently, extra-tropics likely central Asia spring The altered predictability, together with enhanced interannual poses new opportunities challenges regional water management.

Language: Английский

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Modern anthropogenic drought in Central Brazil unprecedented during last 700 years

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)

Published: Feb. 26, 2024

Abstract A better understanding of the relative roles internal climate variability and external contributions, from both natural (solar, volcanic) anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing, is important to project future hydrologic changes. Changes in evaporative demand play a central role this context, particularly tropical areas characterized by high precipitation seasonality, such as savannah semi-desertic biomes. Here we present set geochemical proxies speleothems well-ventilated cave located central-eastern Brazil which shows that no longer being met precipitation, leading hydrological deficit. marked change balance Brazil, caused severe warming trend, can be identified, starting 1970s. Our findings show current aridity has analog over last 720 years. detection attribution study indicates trend mostly driven forcing cannot explained factors alone. These results reinforce premise long-term drought subtropics eastern South America will likely further exacerbated given its apparent connection increased emissions.

Language: Английский

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Multiple regional climate model projections to assess building thermal performance in Brazil: Understanding the uncertainty

Journal of Building Engineering, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 88, P. 109248 - 109248

Published: April 4, 2024

Language: Английский

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Performance of Regional Climate Model Precipitation Simulations Over the Terrain‐Complex Andes‐Amazon Transition Region

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(1)

Published: Jan. 6, 2024

Abstract Regional climate models (RCMs) are widely used to assess future impacts associated with change at regional and local scales. RCMs must represent relevant variables in the present‐day be considered fit‐for‐purpose for impact assessment. This condition is particularly difficult meet over complex regions such as Andes‐Amazon transition region, where Andean topography abundance of tropical rainfall regimes remain a challenge numerical models. In this study, we evaluate ability 30 simulations (6 driven by 10 global models) reproduce historical (1981–2005) climatology temporal variability region. We spatio‐temporal features spatial distribution rainfall, focusing on orographic effects “rainfall hotspots” seasonal interannual precipitation variability. The Eta RCM exhibits highest correlation (up 0.6) accurately reproduces mean annual patterns across while some other have good performances specific locations. Most simulate wet bias highlands, eastern summits, evidenced 100%–2,500% overestimations these regions. Annual cycles well represented most RCMs, but peak seasons exaggerated, especially equatorial No skillful reproducing patterns. Results highlight skills weaknesses different simulations, can assist selection studies zone.

Language: Английский

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On the heat waves over India and their future projections under different SSP scenarios from CMIP6 models

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 44(3), P. 973 - 995

Published: Jan. 30, 2024

Abstract Thirteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models were employed to simulate mean, maximum, and minimum temperature across 7 homogenous regions of India for both annual summer season (June, July, August (JJA)). The model fidelity was assessed by comparing them with observed Climate Research Unit dataset. JJA multi‐model ensemble the present (1981–2014) suggests large warm biases in temperature. Although could spatial variability mean maximum over most homogeneous regions, they do not compare well representing temporal variability. We also found, that although different individual have strengths weaknesses characteristics India, a few perform better than others. For example, CNRM‐CM6 represent patterns however struggle capturing HadGEM3‐GC31‐LL, KACE‐1‐0G, UKESM1‐0‐LL are comparably best‐performing features India. during far future period is projected increase 1.5°C, 2.3°C, 4.1°C Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP5‐8.5 respectively. At regional scales, revealed significant increases Interior Peninsula (3.8°C), Western Himalaya (5.6°C), Northwest (3.9°C), West Coast (3.6°C), East Northeast North Central highlighting Himalaya's heightened sensitivity. Further, heat wave frequency rise, northern territories (NW, NC, NE, part IP) affected, anticipating week‐long waves affecting around 50% India's population under stronger SSPs. Such unprecedented impacts seem be less profound case abatement scenarios such as SSP1‐2.6. Our findings support urgent need more ambitious mitigation adaptation strategies alleviate public health climate change.

Language: Английский

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Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region

Frontiers in Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6

Published: April 23, 2024

The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and increasing frequency strength climate impacts, highlight urgent need adaptation, particularly developing countries. Unfortunately, current adaptation initiatives are not enough counteract observed impacts projected risks from change Latin America Caribbean (LAC). In this paper, we review relevant issues that have capacity transform knowledge parties’ ambitions into action region. Current vulnerabilities climatic impact-drivers LAC diverse, complex, region-specific their effects expected be exacerbated by change. However, advancement regional domestic agendas has been hindered scientific gaps, political support, institutional capacity, financial, technical, human, economic limitations common many Transforming data multidimensional metrics with useful thresholds for different sectors understanding contribution feasible strategies delayed local conundrums such as lack inclusive governance, availability, equity, justice, transboundary issues. We discuss ways move forward develop resilient development actions a more sustainable future LAC. science community needs strengthen its local, national, connections decision/policymakers society establish three-way engagement proposing suitable negotiations vulnerability associated extremes, variability discussions insights presented work could extrapolated other countries Global South.

Language: Английский

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Recent changes in the dry-to-wet transition season in the Andean Altiplano and related atmospheric circulation patterns (1981–2022)

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

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Current hydroclimatic spaces will be breached in half of the world’s humid high-elevation tropical ecosystems

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: March 12, 2025

Abstract Humid high-elevation tropical ecosystems (HETEs), known as páramos, jalca, or moorlands, are essential for biodiversity conservation and water supply. Yet, a key question remains of how future climate change will affect their hydroclimatic spaces: the multidimensional conditions in which they currently thrive. We use CMIP6-downscaled data to assess potential breaching these spaces concerning long-term means, extremes, seasonality temperature precipitation. Our results show that HETEs Northern South America experience largest increase decrease precipitation, leading current space by up 100%. In Afrotropics Australasia, related means extremes. findings provide relevant information on vulnerability change, offering insights inform integration adaptation measures into policy development management strategies conserving services.

Language: Английский

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Can large-scale tree cover change negate climate change impacts on future water availability?

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 29(7), P. 1895 - 1918

Published: April 15, 2025

Abstract. The availability of fresh water over land may become increasingly scarce under climate change (CC), and natural human-induced tree cover changes can further enhance or negate the scarcity. Previous studies showed that global have large impacts on current conditions, but they did not touch upon implications change. Here, we study hydrological large-scale (climate-induced in combination with afforestation) a future (SSP3-7.0) following an interdisciplinary approach. By combining data from five Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models potential dataset, six Budyko models, UTrack moisture recycling disentangle evapotranspiration, precipitation, runoff. We quantify per grid cell for selected river basins (Yukon, Mississippi, Amazon, Danube, Murray–Darling) if counteract climate-driven runoff due to their impact evapotranspiration recycling. Globally averaged, be similar magnitude opposite signs. While increase runoff, estimate could reverse this effect, which result limited net relative present cover. Nevertheless, local substantial, increases decreases more than 100 mm yr−1. show that, approximately 16 % surface, significantly. However, 14 both decrease by 5 For each catchments, direction vary, dominating all except Mississippi River basin. Our results ecosystem restoration projects targeting altered should consider corresponding limit unwanted (non-)local reductions availability.

Language: Английский

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