Navigating the Uncertain Terrain: Venezuela’s Future Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Framework—A Systematic Review DOI Open Access
Isaías Lescher Soto, Alicia Villamizar, Barlín Orlando Olivares

et al.

Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(7), P. 98 - 98

Published: July 6, 2024

We investigate Venezuela’s potential “futures” under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) through a systematic literature review, including mapping and thematic analysis of 50 scientific articles. categorised the SSP scenarios into two generational categories classified outcomes positive, negative, neutral futures. Under first-generation scenarios, increasing poverty could be reversed, country’s economic growth stimulated by adopting unambitious climate measures. However, second-generation paint more challenging picture. They suggest that Venezuela face heat waves, droughts, an increase in diseases, loss biodiversity, invasive species pests during remainder 21st century as direct consequence change. geographic topographic diversity exacerbate these impacts For instance, coastal areas at risk sea-level rise increased storm surges, while mountainous regions experience frequent intense rainfall, leading to landslides flash floods. The urgency conducting additional research on factors influence severity change’s impact, considering diversity, cannot overstated. also identified critical need explore alternative paths move away from current extractive development model. actions this regard instrumental aligning country with global adaptation mitigation commitments.

Language: Английский

Climate projections indicate a loss and redistribution of the biodiversity of valuable plants in the Brazilian semiarid DOI
Everton A. Maciel, Fabrina Bolzan Martins, José Maria Cardoso da Silva

et al.

Journal for Nature Conservation, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 126930 - 126930

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
The caatinga dry tropical forest: A highly efficient carbon sink in South America DOI
Keila Rêgo Mendes, Pablo E. S. Oliveira, José Romualdo de Sousa Lima

et al.

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 369, P. 110573 - 110573

Published: April 23, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Unraveling the coupled HighResMIP-CMIP6 models resolution impacts in present climate and future projections of water availability over South America DOI Creative Commons

Naligia Mabel Batista de Sousa Silva,

Rosmeri Porfírio da Rocha,

Ana Maria Pereira Nunes

et al.

Frontiers in Earth Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 13

Published: May 15, 2025

This study examines present and future projections of precipitation evapotranspiration for South America, focusing on small regions with distinct environmental climatic characteristics. The objective is to understand water availability across the continent assess role model resolution in shaping these (2015–2050). Five coupled Global Coupled Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 (HighResMIP) low (∼70 km) high (∼25 horizontal resolutions were analyzed: HadGEM3, MPI, CMCC, EC-Earth3P, HiRAM. For climate (1979–2014), statistical indices applied identify primary effects ability capture regional characteristics by comparing simulations GPCC ERA5 reference dataset. HighResMIP models demonstrated strong performance simulating climatology, higher-resolution versions increasing spatial pattern correlation (until 0.90) reducing RMSE (1.32 1.82 mm/day) biases. These correlations improved further 0.93) when only over continental areas analyzed. At scale, annual cycles high-resolution consistently northeast Brazil, La Plata basin eastern Amazon basin, while others differences between are smaller as well occurs except Amazon. In both resolutions, indicate a intensification dry season, rainfall decrease 30% central America. austral summer autumn, increase projected Pacific Atlantic branches southward 25°S, including basin. changes resources some associated resolution. projects increased an extensive strip Argentina northeastern Brazil decreased low-resolution this change not so evident due large divergence members. signal trends controlling at previously found projections, consistent those simulations.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Exposure of protected areas in Central America to extreme weather events DOI Creative Commons
Juan David González‐Trujillo, Diogo Alagador, Pamela González‐del‐Pliego

et al.

Conservation Biology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 38(4)

Published: March 10, 2024

Abstract Central America and the Caribbean are regularly battered by megadroughts, heavy rainfall, heat waves, tropical cyclones. Although 21st‐century climate change is expected to increase frequency, intensity, duration of these extreme weather events (EWEs), their incidence in regional protected areas (PAs) remains poorly explored. We examined historical projected EWEs across region based on 32 metrics that describe distinct dimensions (i.e., duration, frequency) cyclones, droughts, rainfall compared trends PAs with unprotected lands. From early 21st century onward, exposure increased region, were predicted be more exposed extremes than (as shown autoregressive model coefficients at p < 0.05 significance level). This was particularly true for which have a significantly higher average (tested Wilcoxon tests 0.01) intensity affected severely carbon‐intensive scenarios. also less droughts 0.01). However, could threaten connectivity between increasingly common this region. estimated approximately 65% study area will experience least one drought episode intense longer lasting previous droughts. Collectively, our results highlight new conservation strategies adapted threats associated need tailored implemented promptly. Unless urgent action taken, significant damage may inflicted unique biodiversity

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Historical and future extreme climate events in highly vulnerable small Caribbean Islands DOI Creative Commons

Oscar Julian Esteban-Cantillo,

Nicola Clerici, Álvaro Ávila-Díaz

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 62(8), P. 7233 - 7250

Published: July 3, 2024

Abstract Small Caribbean islands are on the frontline of climate change because sea level rise, extreme rainfall and temperature events, heavy hurricanes. The Archipelago San Andrés, Providencia, Santa Catalina (SAI), belonging to Colombia declared a Biosphere Reserve by UNESCO. SAI is highly vulnerable impacts but no hydroclimatological study quantified climatic changes yet. This analyzes historical (1960s-2020, 7 stations) future (2071–2100, CMIP6 multi-model ensemble, for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) trends in mean precipitation duration, frequency, intensity. We find that heatwaves have more than tripled frequency doubled their maximum duration since end ‘80 s. Precipitation historically reduced 5%, with reduction recorded 5 stations an increase 2, while events significantly increased intensity most stations. hotter-and-drier amplified all scenarios, much drier extremes (e.g., -0.5─-17% wet days, +8%─30% consecutive dry +60%─89% hot days). Although we show hurricanes Categories IV V near (< 600 km) the’60 s, only small fraction archipelago associated or tropical storms. La Niña also substantial influence precipitation. Interestingly, opposite heterogeneous found across such territory 30 km 2 ). Thus, downscaled hydrometeorological data model simulations essential investigate strengthen islands' adaptation efforts.

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Agricultural resilience: Impact of extreme weather events on the adoption of rural insurance in Brazil DOI
Elizângela Aparecida dos Santos, Elena Beatriz Piedra-Bonilla, Gabriela Madureira Barroso

et al.

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 89, P. 102938 - 102938

Published: Oct. 12, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Diversified farming and agroecology: Assessing cacao and coffee smallholders’ food security, dietary diversity, and vulnerability to hurricanes and other hazards in Central America DOI Creative Commons
Christopher M. Bacon, William A. Sundstrom

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 4, 2025

Abstract Diversified farming is one of several agroecological strategies for reducing smallholders’ risk and building resilience to climate change other hazards. Accumulating evidence shows that farmers can use agroecology improve household food security influence system transformations. However, additional research needed identify which are used by whom the degree diversification, characteristics, context, or contribute farmer well-being. In 2022, we conducted a livelihood, agriculture, survey with 429 smallholders sampled randomly from affiliated cooperatives selling coffee cacao in northern Nicaragua. We focus on practices associated 9 key principles their relation security, water dietary diversity. Next, integrated statistical analysis into our participatory mixed methods approach using partner feedback 13 interviews inform interpret regression models. Cacao wetter growing zone reported more crop diversity, organic production, less seasonal hunger than growers. Food input price inflation was pressing concern impacts hurricanes Eta Iota all producers. Our multivariate suggested location important surplus subsistence (corn bean) farm size, income, correlated significantly improved hunger. Production diversity farmers’ formal education This among first studies comparing producers assessing nutrition, vulnerability. Findings relevant many 15 million smallholder growers seeking sustainable livelihoods potentially modifying useful multidimensional indicators frameworks, like UN FAO’s Tool Agroecological Performance Assessment, include measures security.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Safeguarding European space sovereignty—Recommendations for operational climate services to support resilience DOI Creative Commons
Christine Nam,

Romain Pilon,

Laurens M. Bouwer

et al.

Space Policy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 101689 - 101689

Published: April 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Assessment of Precipitation and Hydrological Droughts in South America through Statistically Downscaled CMIP6 Pro-jections DOI Open Access
Glauber Willian de Souza Ferreira, Michelle Simões Reboita, João Gabriel Martins Ribeiro

et al.

Published: July 6, 2023

Drought events are evident effects of climate change around the globe and yield several socio-economic impacts. Such even more relevant for South America (SA) since different activities essential continent, like agriculture energy generation, depend highly on water resources. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate future changes in precipitation hydro-logical droughts occurrence SA through projections from eight global models (GCMs) CMIP6. To end, statistical downscaling was applied with Quantile Delta Mapping technique, method proved be efficient reducing systematic biases preserving GCMs’ trends. For following decades, results show considerable statistically significant reductions over most SA, especially during austral spring, intense signal under SSP5-8.5 forcing scenario. Furthermore, GCMs showed mixed signals about frequency intensity drought events. Still, they indicated agreement regarding increase duration severity all a substantial proportion moderate severe Brazil 21st century. These can helpful better management resources by deci-sion-makers planners.

Language: Английский

Citations

7
Seasonal influence of tropical Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperature on streamflow variability in the patia river basin DOI Creative Commons
Teresita Canchala, Yesid Carvajal Escobar, Wilfredo Alfonso-Morales

et al.

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 155(6), P. 5417 - 5431

Published: April 8, 2024

Abstract This research presents a seasonal analysis of the variability streamflows in Patía River Basin (PRB) between 1984 and 2018 influence exerted by large-scale climate using non-linear principal component (NLPCA), Pearson's correlation, composite analysis. The study was conduced during minimum (July–August–September, JAS) maximum (October–November–December, OND) streamflow periods. NLPCA depicted single significant mode for each season with explained variances greater than 75%. correlation main OND indices showed results, mainly Pacific Ocean El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In contrast, JAS, correlations were linked to Atlantic Ocean. Finally, indicated that positive (negative) events which show increase (decrease) PRB, are related negative (positive) anomalies Tropical Northern band, including Caribbean Sea Gulf Mexico. comparison, sea surface temperature (SST) tropical Pacific, corresponding La Niña (El Niño) events. results provide evidence strong SST on PRB establish foundations modelling, relevant prevention risk management as well adequate planning water resources region.

Language: Английский

Citations

2