Rainstorm-induced flood risks exacerbated by dual climatic-human impacts in the lower Yellow River Basin of China
Abstract
Human-induced
warming
is
intensifying
the
water
cycle,
increasing
risk
of
extreme
precipitation
and
rainstorm-induced
floods
(RIF),
posing
a
challenge
for
sustainable
socioeconomic
development
Yellow
River
Basin
(YRB).
Future
flood
risks
under
dual
impact
climate
change
urbanization
are
less
than
adequately
understood.
In
this
study,
we
selected
9
indicators
to
formulate
an
RIF
evaluation
Model
based
on
hazard
disaster-inducing
factors,
sensitivity
disaster-prone
environment,
vulnerability
disaster-bearing
areas
(HSVM).
We
combined
analytical
hierarchy
process
(AHP)
entropy
weight
(EW)
method
estimate
during
historical
(1950–2014),
near-term
(2021–2040),
mid-term
(2041–2060),
long-term
(2081–2100)
periods
over
YRB
SSP245,
SSP585
scenarios.
found
decreasing
along
southeast
northwest
direction,
moderate
high
in
middle
lower
YRB.
Using
period
as
baseline,
increased
by
8.34%-18.29%
(11.66%-28.93%)
SSP245
(SSP585)
High
was
identified
YRB,
particularly
urbanized
regions.
Compared
period,
30.46%-79.39%
(29.14%-93.18%)
Specifically,
were
precipitously
provinces
such
Shandong,
Henan,
Shaanxi,
47.00%-91.50%
(50.67%-169.51%)
scenarios
The
increase
Henan
Shandong
reached
58.02%-283.05%,
larger
period.
This
study
highlighted
YPR,
calling
urgent
mitigation
measures
disaster
reduction.
Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: April 3, 2025
Language: Английский