SPATIOTEMPORAL PROJECTIONS OF EXTREME TEMPERATURE INDICES OVER ALGERIA USING CMIP6-GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS DOI
Salah Sahabi Abed, Ahmed Nour-EL-Islam Selmane

International Journal of Big Data Mining for Global Warming, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 05(02)

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

We assess in this paper the spatiotemporal projections of extreme temperature indices over Algeria derived from adjusted multi-model ensemble mean (MME) data 11 daily historical simulations CMIP6-GCMs models that participated IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The projected spatial patterns 12 defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are assessed for two future time periods: mid-future 2041–2070 far 2071–2100, relative to baseline period 1985–2014 under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: low emission SSP1-2.6; medium SSP2-4.5 high scenario (SSP5-8.5). selected climate reflect intensity (TXx, TNx, TXn, TNn DTR), frequency (TX90p TN10p) duration (WSDI, SU, CSDI, TR FD) thermal events. MME Projections show a global heightened warming Algeria. Future features depict continuous increase occurrence hot days end century reaching 60% SSP5-8.5 an amplification about 6 ∘ C extension heat wave 80 north 100 south country compared period. However, study shows simultaneous decline cold spell 7 frost 25 days. A stabilization upsurge trend is remarkably observed most SSP1-2.6 starting 2050s. changes depicted should help distribution impacts across different regions order enhance resilience, establish appropriate adaptation responses improve disaster preparedness.

Language: Английский

Observed changes in wet days and dry spells over the IGAD region of eastern Africa DOI Creative Commons
Paulino Omoj Omay, Nzioka John Muthama,

Christopher Oludhe

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Oct. 6, 2023

Abstract Changes in wet and dry patterns have an impact on rain-fed agriculture, crop productivity, food security Eastern Africa. The purpose of this research is to look into the changes days periods within Intergovernmental Authority Development (IGAD) region. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station Data (CHIRPS) Multi Models Ensembles (MME) 10 historical simulations projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models were employed as data source. Several statistical approaches, well spell thresholds, used calculate change spells a decadal (10-year), 20, 30, 41-year time scale. results show region exhibits decrease number protracted 1980s, followed by extraordinary (exceptional) increase subsequent decades (2011–2020) during March–May (MAM), June–September (JJAS), October-December (OND). In Kenya, Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, probability surpassing 7, 14, 21, 28 (1, 2, 3, 4 spells) was less than 5%. Furthermore, floods 1997, 2018, 2019, 2020, droughts 1983, 1984, 1985, 2021, triggered or over most projected 10–20% MAM season across Sudan, South central northern JJAS 30–50% Sudan. However, OND season, increases are Uganda, Kenya under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5) scenarios. These findings contributed advancement scientific knowledge IGAD region, decision-making, security, development adaptation mitigation strategies. We encourage variety planning, irrigation supplement.

Language: Английский

Citations

10
Projected climate change impacts on Potato yield in East Africa DOI Creative Commons

Thomas Kirina,

Iwan Supit, Annemarie Groot

et al.

European Journal of Agronomy, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 166, P. 127560 - 127560

Published: Feb. 22, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Evaluation of satellite-based rainfall estimates over the IGAD region of Eastern Africa DOI Creative Commons
Paulino Omoj Omay, Nzioka John Muthama,

Christopher Oludhe

et al.

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 137(2)

Published: March 11, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Evaluation of CMIP6 models in simulating seasonal extreme precipitation over Ethiopia DOI Creative Commons

Daniel Berhanu,

Tena Alamirew,

Woldeamlak Bewket

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 100752 - 100752

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Climate Trend Analysis in the Ramis Catchment, Upper Wabi Shebelle Basin, Ethiopia, Using the CMIP6 Dataset DOI
Amanuel Tsegaye Tadase

Journal of African Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 217, P. 105347 - 105347

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Spatiotemporal Climate Change Projection and Trend Analysis Using Selected Downscaled CMIP6 Models for Water Action Over Awash River Basin, Ethiopia DOI Creative Commons
Abebe M. Legass, Tena Alamirew, Solomon Gebreyohannis Gebrehiwot

et al.

Environmental Challenges, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 101059 - 101059

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Spatiotemporal projections of extreme Temperatures over Algeria using CMIP6-MME global climate models outputs DOI Creative Commons
Salah Sahabi Abed, Ahmed Nour-EL-Islam Selmane

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Nov. 7, 2023

Abstract Algeria is vulnerable to climate extremes due its large surface, growing population, and diverse valuable fragile ecosystems. We assess in this paper the spatiotemporal projections of extreme temperatures over derived from adjusted multi-model ensemble mean (MME) data eleven daily historical simulations CMIP6-GCMs models that participated IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), considered most authoritative source on change. projected spatial patterns twelve temperature indices defined by Expert Team Climate Change Detection Indices. The evolution changes examined for two future time periods: mid-future 2041–2070 far 2071–2100, relative baseline period 1985–2014, under three Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: low emission SSP1-2.6; medium SSP2-4.5 high scenario (SSP5-8.5). selected reflect intensity (TXx, TNx, TXn, TNn DTR), frequency (TX90p TN10p) duration (WSDI, SU, CSDI, TR, FD) thermal events. MME Projections show a heightened warming. Future features depict continuous increase occurrence hot days nights an amplification extension heat wave period. These positive are likely be more important end 21st century southern region than northern one SSP5-8.5 remaining scenarios, with exception summer (SU), where experience relatively as compared region. A stabilization upsurge trend remarkably observed SSP1-2.6 starting 2050s. In last decades, has been experiencing recurrently impacts weather leading irreversible impacts. events underscore urgency change mitigation adaptation measures. depicted study should help distribution across different regions order enhance resilience, establish appropriate responses improve disaster preparedness.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Exploring the Influence of Anthropogenic Forcing on Meteorological Drought Pattern in East Africa: An Analysis Using Cmip6 Models​ DOI

Tamirat Yohannes Hansewo,

Jinhua Yu, Mulualem Abera Waza

et al.

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Download This Paper Open PDF in Browser Add to My Library Share: Permalink Using these links will ensure access this page indefinitely Copy URL DOI

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Response of Species to the Impact of Climate Change in the Gum Arabic Belt, Sudan: A Case Study in Acacia senegal DOI Open Access

Fatima Awadalla Abass Elhassan,

Édouard Konan Kouassi,

Haftu Abrha

et al.

International Journal of Environment and Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(5), P. 305 - 323

Published: May 23, 2024

Sustainable management strategies of trees are important for indigenous agroforestry plant species, such as Acacia. Senegal (A. Senegal), due to the impacts rapid population growth, land use and climate change. The objective this investigation was predict spatio-temporal distribution A.senegal in Gum Arabic belt Sudan current (1985–2000) future scenarios (2021–2100). Bioclimatic data used modeling purposes utilizing Maxent, with assessment model precision conducted through utilization Area Under Curve (AUC) shown a high goodness-of-it (AUC=0.905±0.003 ). Significant differences were species between periods under selected Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5, scenario. Our findings indicated that main predictors influence precipitation wettest quarter maximum temperature warmest month. potential (25.4%), it is projected Acacia would expand 36.2%-87.7% (SSP2-4.5) 38.9-42.5% (SSP5-8.5). It expected A.cacia will create new environments suitable changes. Hence, research necessitates formulation strategic plan aimed rehabilitation plantations senegal cultivation these within existing prospective habitats conducive their existence.

Language: Английский

Citations

0
Projected future changes in food insecurity hotspots over the IGAD region of Eastern Africa DOI Creative Commons
Paulino Omoj Omay, Josiah M. Kinama, Nzioka John Muthama

et al.

Arabian Journal of Geosciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17(9)

Published: Aug. 14, 2024

Abstract Food insecurity is a major issue in many parts of the world, driven by conflict, economic instability, environmental challenges, and poor governance processes. Understanding impact future rainfall extremes on areas already experiencing food crucial. This study investigates how hotspots (FIH), crisis frequency, duration will change near (2021–2050) far (2071–2100) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The utilizes precipitation data from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) FIH NASA Data Applications Center (SEDAC). To calculate exposure vulnerability to FIH, as well frequency duration, weighted sum models were used. results indicate that arid semi-arid northeastern Kenya, most Somalia, zones southeastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, central northern Sudan are highly vulnerable extreme events, an increase cases, longer all scenarios. On other hand, districts Uganda, southern southwestern South Sudan, counties western majority Ethiopia projected have very few low both These findings crucial for early warning systems, humanitarian responses, security interventions. We recommend harnessing increases water harvesting promoting cash crop production Sudan.

Language: Английский

Citations

0