Prediction of Oncomelania hupensis distribution in association with climate change using machine learning models

Parasites & Vectors, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: Oct. 23, 2023

Oncomelania hupensis is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. Its emergence and recurrence pose a constant challenge to elimination schistosomiasis in China. It important accurately predict snail distribution for prevention control.Data describing O. 2016 was obtained from Yunnan Institute Endemic Disease Control Prevention. Eight machine learning algorithms, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), support vector (SVM), random forest (RF), generalized boosting model (GBM), neural network (NN), classification regression trees (CART), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), additive (GAM), were employed explore impacts climatic, geographical, socioeconomic variables on suitable areas hupensis. Predictions made various periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s) under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585).The RF exhibited best performance (AUC: 0.991, sensitivity: 0.982, specificity: 0.995, kappa: 0.942) CART performed worst 0.884, 0.922, 0.943, 0.829). Based model, top six as follows: Bio15 (precipitation seasonality) (33.6%), average annual precipitation (25.2%), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) (21.7%), Bio19 coldest quarter) (14.5%), population density (13.5%), night light index (11.1%). The results demonstrated that overall habitats predominantly distributed schistosomiasis-endemic located northwestern Province current situation predicted expand north- westward due change.This study showed prediction corresponded well with actual records. Furthermore, our provided compelling evidence geographical snails projected toward north west coming decades, indicating driven by factors. Our findings will be great significance formulating effective strategies control.

Language: Английский

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Accelerating the Control and Elimination of Major Parasitic Diseases in China — On World NTD Day 2024

Deleted Journal, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 6(6), P. 95 - 99

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a group of associated with poverty that affect over 1 billion people worldwide (1).On May 31, 2021, the World Health Assembly (WHA) officially recognized January 30 as Tropical Diseases Day through decision WHA74( 18).This designation aims to raise awareness about severe impact NTDs on disadvantaged populations and mobilize support for control, elimination, eradication efforts.The theme 2024 is "Unite, Act, Eliminate."In November 2020, 73rd endorsed report "Ending neglect attain Sustainable Development Goals: road map neglected 2021-2030" (2).This comprehensive establishes global targets milestones prevention, or 20 disease groups, aligned Goals.Three primary pillars will guide efforts in achieving these targets: 1) accelerating programmatic action, 2) intensifying cross-cutting approaches, 3) promoting country ownership changes operating models culture.The roadmap sets elimination schistosomiasis, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), soiltransmitted helminthiases (STHs) public health problems outlines control measures echinococcosis, foodborne trematodiases, taeniasis/cysticercosis China.In this paper, we review progress accomplishments major parasitic China past decade analyze ongoing challenges outlined Organization (WHO) roadmap.We discuss latest advancements, obstacles, key tasks China, aiming provide insights into realization WHO 2021-2030 Outline Healthy 2030 Plan.

Language: Английский

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Three Gorges Dam: the changing trend of snail density in the Yangtze River basin between 1990 and 2019

Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: April 28, 2023

Abstract Background The area of Oncomelania hupensis snail remains around 3.6 billion m 2 , with newly emerging and reemergent habitats continuing to appear in recent years. This study aimed explore the long-term dynamics density before after operation Three Gorges Dam (TGD). Methods Data survey between 1990 2019 were collected from electronic databases national schistosomiasis surveillance. Meta-analysis was conducted estimate density. Joinpoint model used identify changing trend inflection point. Inverse distance weighted interpolation (IDW) determine spatial distribution Results A total 3777 sites a precise location village or beach identified. For downstream area, peaked 1998 (1.635/0.11 95% CI: 1.220, 2.189) fluctuated at relatively high level 2003, then declined steadily 2003 2012. Snail maintained lower than 0.150/0.11 2012 2019. identified significant decreasing an annual percentage change (APC) being − 20.56% (95% 24.15, 16.80). upstream 2005 (0.760/0.11 0.479, 1.207) generally greater 0.300/0.11 2005. 2011. showed APC 6.05% 7.97, 7.09), no IDW areas existed Poyang Lake, Dongting Jianghan Plain, Anhui branch Yangtze River 2015 Conclusions exhibited fluctuating downward basin. In TGD accelerated decline during first decade period, low level. There still exists local Long-term control monitoring snails need be insisted on strengthened. Graphical

Language: Английский

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Predicting the Potential Distribution of Endangered <em>Changnienia amoena </em>S. S. Chien in China Based on Ensemble Modeling

Published: Aug. 5, 2024

Climate change has significant impacts on the distribution of orchids. The endemic and endan-gered orchids are more susceptible to climate than widely distributed To date, lit-tle is known concerning response endangered Changnienia amoena, China, different scenarios. Here, we chose RF, MaxEnt, GBM build an ensemble model af-ter using ten models from Biomod2 project its potential in China. outcomes showed that four key environmental factors influencing were mean diurnal temperature range, minimum coldest month, seasonality, precipitation warmest quarter. This orchid was mainly western Hubei, junction between Shaanxi Sichuan, eastern Guizhou, northwestern Hunan, among Anhui, Henan, Hubei provinces current. total suitable area C. amoena 58.33 × 104 km2, only accounting for 6.08% China&#039;s territory, which larger known. However, 4.48% located within national nature reserves, 3.33% provincial respectively. During Last Inter Glacial mid-Holocene, areas Under six future scenarios, may averagely decrease by 2.26% relative current, with severe habitat fragmentation. Col-lectively, centroid expected migrate towards southeast future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate takes adverse effect distribution. We recommend expanding protected or establishing new conservation sites amoena. Furthermore, study can help inform development manage-ment strategies other China under change.

Language: Английский

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Establishment of an indicator framework for global One Health Intrinsic Drivers index based on the grounded theory and fuzzy analytical hierarchy-entropy weight method

Infectious Diseases of Poverty, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Dec. 8, 2022

One Health has become a global consensus to deal with complex health problems. However, the progress of implementation in many countries is still relatively slow, and there lack systematic evaluation index. The purpose this study was establish an indicator framework for Intrinsic Drivers index (GOH-IDI) evaluate human, animal environmental development process globally. First, 82 studies were deeply analyzed by grounded theory (GT) method, including open coding, axial selective three-level framework, which composed three codes, 19 79 codes. Then, through semi-structured interviews 28 health-related experts, indicators further integrated simplified according inclusion criteria indicators. Finally, fuzzy analytical hierarchy combined entropy weight method used assign weights indicators, thus, forming process. An GOH-IDI formed consisting 15 codes 61 There six "Human Health", "Infectious Diseases" had highest (19.76%) "Injuries Violence" lowest (11.72%). four "Animal Epidemic Disease" (39.28%) Nutritional Status" (11.59%). Five set under "Environmental among which, "Air Quality Climate Change" (22.63%) "Hazardous Chemicals" (17.82%). established study. universal, balanced, scientific, hopefully be tool joint different regions

Language: Английский

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Transmission Risk Predicting for Schistosomiasis in Mainland China by Exploring Ensemble Ecological Niche Modeling

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(1), P. 24 - 24

Published: Dec. 28, 2022

Schistosomiasis caused by Schistosoma japonicum is one of the major neglected tropical diseases worldwide. The snail Oncomelania hupensis only intermediate host S. japonicum, which recognized as an indicator schistosomias occurrence. In order to evaluate risk schistosomiasis in China, this work investigate potential geographical distribution habitus developing ensemble ecological niche model with reference suitable environmental factors. historical records were collected form national surveillance program from year 2005 2014. A total 25 factors terms climate, geographic, and socioeconomic determinants habitats geographically coded data. Based on correlations among associated factors, was developed integrating ten standard models, aiming for improving predictive accuracy. Three indexes are used performance evaluation, including receiver operating characteristic curves, kappa statistics, true skill statistics. mapping middle lower reaches Yangtze River. results have shown that predicted areas classified into low (4.55%), medium (2.01%), high (4.40%), accounting 10.96% land area China. This study demonstrated models effective tool evaluating schistosomiasis, particularly endemic regions, not covered control program.

Language: Английский

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Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial–temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study

Parasites & Vectors, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: July 14, 2023

Snail abundance varies spatially and temporally. Few studies have elucidated the different effects of determinants affecting snail density between upstream downstream areas Three Gorges Dam (TGD). We therefore investigated differential drivers changes in these areas, as well spatial-temporal changes.A survey was conducted at 200 sites over a 5-year period to monitor dynamic within Yangtze River basin. Data on corresponding variables that might affect abundance, such meteorology, vegetation, terrain economy, were collected from multiple data sources. A Bayesian modeling framework constructed explore driving change change.Volatility unambiguously detected area TGD, while small increment volatility area. Regarding positively associated with average minimum temperature January same year, annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) previous year second, third fourth quartile, respectively, relative humidity year. negatively maximum July nighttime light An approximately inverted "U" curve risk among greater ground surface area, NDVI total precipitation slope.This study demonstrated rebound 2015 2019. In particular, temperature, humidity, vegetation human activity main precipitation, slope These findings can assist authorities develop perform more precise strategies for surveys control populations.

Language: Английский

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Three Gorges Dam: Differential determinants and spatial-temporal effects of the change of snail density

Research Square (Research Square), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 3, 2023

Abstract BACKGROUND The abundance of Oncomelania hupensis snail can promote the transmission schistosomiasis japonica. Snail distribution varies spatially and temporally in different geographical regions. Hence, we investigated differential drivers density between downstream upstream areas Three Gorges Dam (TGD), spatial-temporal changes abundance. METHODS We deployed survey at 200 sites over 5 years to monitor a dynamic change within Yangtze River basin. Corresponding variables that might affect abundance, such as Meteorology, vegetation, terrain, economy, were collected from multiple data sources. conducted Bayesian modeling framework investigate determinants effects density. RESULTS Obvious volatility for was detected area TGD, whilst small increment area. For positively associated with average minimum temperature January same year, annual normalized difference vegetation index previous year (NDVI), 2nd quartile relative humidity (RH), 3rd RH, 4th RH. negatively maximum July night-time light year. An approximately inverted “U” curve risk among greater ground surface area, NDVI, total precipitation (Pre), Pre, Pre. Slope. CONCLUSIONS Collectively, our study demonstrated rebound 2015 2019. In particular, temperature, humidity, human activity main affecting while precipitation, slope, This evidence assist authorities execute more precise strategies investigation control.

Language: Английский

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Spatial and Temporal Distribution Pattern of Oncomelania hupensis Caused by Multiple Environmental Factors Using Ecological Niche Models

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: July 12, 2022

Objective: This study aimed to predict the spatial and temporal distribution pattern of Oncomelania hupensis ( O. ) on a fine scale based ecological niche models, so as provide insights into surveillance. Methods: Geographic environmental variables in Suzhou City were collected from 2016 2020. Five machine learning algorithms used, including eXtreme gradient boosting (XGB), support vector (SVM), random forest (RF), generalized boosted (GBM), C5.0 algorithms, investigate relative contribution each variable. The accuracy five models was evaluated using area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) with ten-fold cross-validation. Results: predicted that potential southwestern areas Wuzhong, Wujiang, Taichang, Xiangcheng counties. AUC RF, XGB, GBM, SVM, 0.8233, 0.8051, 0.7938, 0.7897, 0.7282, respectively. Comparing predictive results truth 2021, XGB GBM shown be more effective. six greatest contributors predicting included silt content (13.13%), clay (10.21%), population density (8.16%), annual accumulated temperatures ≥0°C (8.12%), night-time lights (7.67%), average precipitation (7.23%). Conclusions: Environmental factors play key role . are effective highly accurate for fine-scale prediction distribution, which provides surveillance

Language: Английский

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Impact of the National Wetland Park in the Poyang Lake Area on Oncomelania hupensis, the Intermediate Host of Schistoma japonicum

Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 8(4), P. 194 - 194

Published: March 27, 2023

In this study, we aimed to understand the influence of ecotourism on distribution Oncomelania hupensis and provide a scientific basis for formulating effective snail control methods in tourism development areas. Poyang Lake National Wetland Park was selected as pilot area, sampling surveys were conducted based comprehensive detailed investigations all historical suspected environments according map data determine analyze impact development. The results showed that from 2011 2021, positive rates blood tests fecal tended decrease among residents area. livestock also decrease. average density O. snails decreased, no schistosomes detected during infection monitoring Lake. local economy rapidly grew after tourism. projects increased transfer frequency boats, recreational equipment, people, but it did not increase risk schistosomiasis transmission or spread snails. Prevention only need be strengthened low-endemic areas effectively promote economic due activities without affecting health residents.

Language: Английский

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